Spotlight on measles 2010: An ongoing measles outbreak in the district of Neamt, Romania, August - September 2010.

We report an outbreak of measles that has been ongoing in the district of Neamt, Romania, since 22 August 2010. As of 21 September, 17 of 21 suspected cases have been laboratory-confirmed and there was one measles-related fatality.

Antibacterial antibodies for some enterobacteria in sera of patients with reactive arthritis and other rheumatoid diseases.

The presence of the specific antibodies for some enterobacteria--Yersinia, Salmonella and Shigella was investigated in patients hospitalized in the period 2000-2007 with reactive arthritis and other rheumatoid diseases. The antibacterial antibodies in the diagnosis titres were found in 172 out of 1102 (15.6%) patients. Increased antibodies levels to Yersinia were detected in the sera from 113 (65.7%) of the 172 patients, for Shigella in 47 (27.3%) and for Salmonella in 12 (7.0%) cases. From all serologically positive patients 126 (73.2 %) had clinical diagnosis of reactive arthritis and 46 (26.7%) other rheumatoid diseases (ankylosing spondilytis, Reiter's syndrome, sacroilitis). The most serologically positive cases (63.9%) were of middle-age (30-50 years). There were no significant differences between sexes among serologically positive cases.

Serological diagnosis in human Yersinia infections.

Serological examinations revealed Y. enterocolitica 0:3 specific antibodies in 34% of 80 children affected by a yersiniosis epidemic at titres of 1/40-1/640 and in all sporadic Yersinia enteritis cases. Similarly, agglutinins were identified for Y. enterocolitica 0:3 and 0:9 in 3.4% of 430 appendectomized children hospitalized with painful syndrome in the right iliac fossa. In 10% of 101 patients hospitalized with arthritis and Reiter's syndrome antibodies to Y. enterocolitica 0:3 (8 cases) and Y. pseudotuberculosis (3 cases) were detected at titres of 1/80-1/640. Our results stress the importance of serological examinations in diagnosing human infections with Yersinia.

Effects of fertility and international migration on changing age composition in Canada.

"This paper analyses the prospects for age distribution in Canada through 2036, based on today's age structure and expected trends in fertility and international migration. Simulating these two demographic components at extreme levels shows that tomorrow's aging is already built into the current age distribution, which is heavily marked by the post-war baby boom and the following persistent baby bust, and that neither fertility nor immigration can be seen as effective adjustment mechanisms for the changing age composition of Canada. Population projections using the component method are applied along with an age-specific growth-rate analysis."

[Reflections on the demographic future of advanced societies: a Canadian perspective]. / Reflexions sur le devenir demographique des societes avancees: un regard sur le Canada.

PIP: 3 different perspectives on the below-replacement fertility in Quebec and in Canada are defined and discussed, and the possibility that political solutions will be sought for the demographic problem of low fertility is assessed. The 1st perspective views very low fertility as an outcome of social evolution that is common to advanced societies. In this view, the deeper reasons for low fertility can ultimately be traced to the rationalism, utilitarianism, and individualism produced by the age of enlightenment, and to the industrial revolution, which gave human beings improved control over fertility and modified the psychology and context of reproduction. Events involved in the post-baby boom fertility decline include development of very effective contraception, massive entry of women into the labor force, heightened consumption standards and desires, the rise of social security systems, and a lessened interest in children and family life generally. A 2nd perspective views low fertility as part of a self-regulating social process. Various mechanisms can be proposed by which fertility could spontaneously increase without any undesirable government intervention. Children, having become relatively rare, could become more highly desired as consumer goods. Fashions could change, and the current period of low fertility and abandonment of family values could be succeeded by a period of family renewal. Or the demographic implosion in the industrial world could lead to improved balance between population and environment, after which grouth could resume. But there is little evidence that the personal interest of couples in having children will suddenly correspond to collective interests. The 3rd perspective views demographic problems as matters of public choice and is founded on the notion that society has the capacity to mold its destiny. The will of society to do so is questionable, however, and the history of debates over the desirability of providing universal primary education or health care may be relevant to the question of public acceptance of a family policy. 4 relatively new arguments have emerged that may influence the debate: public opinion on profamily programs and their social contribution is becoming more favorable, and there is growing awareness that income disparities between men and women are related to the family responsibilities of women; that the coming demographic regime of very low fertility and increasing age of the population is historically unprecedented; and that the fertility change needed to assure replacement or moderate growth is relatively modest. Against these factors is the high cost of a family policy. It appears that a synthesis of the 3 theoretical positions is needed which would recognize the realities of a society that has reached demographic maturity while affirming a will to modify some of its trends.^ieng

Population projection as prediction, simulation and prospective analysis.

PIP: This paper attempts to use projections as a means of creating rather than discovering the future. The concept of predictability in projections is discussed as is the practical importance of the procedures of projections. Consideration is made for logistic growth, demographic transition, and probabilistic conceptualization of demographic events in the context of their relevance to population forecasting. The challenging question of how to enhance the analytical capability so as to enable formulation of plausible assumptions about the future in the context of the program manager is examined. This is also done with an eye on increasing operational efficiency of the model in order to minimize costs. The issues of the time horizon, the frequency and advisability of single and multiple projection scenarios are also discussed. Predictability is less stressed in favor of analytic credibility. While the author clearly recognizes the uncertainty inherent in the future, the significance of a credible analysis as a criterion for acceptance of the projection is stressed. The usefulness of a projection in contributing to decisions that shape the future is a reasonable question to ask.^ieng

A demographic approach to the evaluation of the 1986 census and the estimates of Canada's population.

"A significant increase in coverage error in the 1986 [Canadian] Census is revealed by both the Reverse Record Check and the demographic method presented in this paper. Considerable attention is paid to an evaluation of the various components of population growth, especially interprovincial migration. The paper concludes with an overview of two alternative methods for generating postcensal estimates: the currently-in-use, census-based model, and a flexible model using all relevant data in combination with the census."