Climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index: measuring risk transmission of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Climate variability influences the population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito that transmits the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In recent years these diseases have grown considerably. Dengue is now the fastest-growing mosquito-transmitted disease worldwide, putting 40 per cent of the global population at risk. With no effective antiviral treatments or vaccines widely available, controlling mosquito population remains one of the most effective ways to prevent epidemics. This paper analyses the temporal and spatial dynamics of dengue in Mexico during 2000-2020 and that of chikungunya and Zika since they first appeared in the country in 2014 and 2015, respectively. This study aims to evaluate how seasonal climatological variability affects the potential risk of transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. Mexico is among the world's most endemic countries in terms of dengue. Given its high incidence of other mosquito-borne diseases and its size and wide range of climates, it is a good case study. METHODS: We estimate the recently proposed mosquito-borne viral suitability index P, which measures the transmission potential of mosquito-borne pathogens. This index mathematically models how humidity, temperature and precipitation affect the number of new infections generated by a single infected adult female mosquito in a host population. We estimate this suitability index across all Mexico, at small-area level, on a daily basis during 2000-2020. RESULTS: We find that the index P predicted risk transmission is strongly correlated with the areas and seasons with a high incidence of dengue within the country. This correlation is also high enough for chikungunya and Zika in Mexico. We also show the index P is sensitive to seasonal climatological variability, including extreme weather shocks. CONCLUSIONS: The paper shows the dynamics of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in Mexico are strongly associated with seasonal climatological variability and the index P. This potential risk of transmission index, therefore, is a valuable tool for surveillance for mosquito-borne diseases, particularly in settings with varied climates and limited entomological capacity.

Conflicts increased in Africa shortly after COVID-19 lockdowns, but welfare assistance reduced fatalities.

Understanding how rises in local prices affect food-related conflicts is essential for crafting adequate social welfare responses, particularly in settings with an already high level of food vulnerability. We contribute to the literature by examining how rises in local food prices and the lockdowns implemented to contain the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic affected conflict. We analyze real-time conflict data for 24 African countries during 2015-2020, welfare responses to COVID-19, changes in local food prices, and georeferenced data on areas with cultivation, oil, mines, all associated with differentiated risk of conflict. We find that the probability of experiencing food-related conflicts, food looting, riots, and violence against civilians increased shortly after the first strict lockdowns of 2020. Increases in local prices led to increases in violence against civilians. However, countries that timely provided more welfare assistance saw a reduction in the probability of experiencing these conflicts and in the number of associated fatalities. Our results suggest that providing urgent aid and assistance to those who need it can help reduce violence and save lives.

COVID-19 response needs to broaden financial inclusion to curb the rise in poverty.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic risks wiping out years of progress made in reducing global poverty. In this paper, we explore to what extent financial inclusion could help mitigate the increase in poverty using cross-country data across 79 low- and lower-middle-income countries. Unlike other recent cross-country studies, we show that financial inclusion, particularly financial outreach, is a key driver of poverty reduction in these countries. This effect is not direct, but indirect, by mitigating the detrimental effect that inequality has on poverty. Our findings are consistent across all the different measures of poverty used and robust to instrumental variables. Our forecasts suggest that by 2021 the world's population living on less than $5.50 dollars a day would increase by 231 million people, of which nearly 107.8 million people would be pushed into extreme poverty living on less than $1.90 per day. However, urgent improvements in financial inclusion could substantially reduce the impact on poverty.

CNV analysis in Tourette syndrome implicates large genomic rearrangements in COL8A1 and NRXN1.

Tourette syndrome (TS) is a neuropsychiatric disorder with a strong genetic component. However, the genetic architecture of TS remains uncertain. Copy number variation (CNV) has been shown to contribute to the genetic make-up of several neurodevelopmental conditions, including schizophrenia and autism. Here we describe CNV calls using SNP chip genotype data from an initial sample of 210 TS cases and 285 controls ascertained in two Latin American populations. After extensive quality control, we found that cases (N = 179) have a significant excess (P = 0.006) of large CNV (>500 kb) calls compared to controls (N = 234). Amongst 24 large CNVs seen only in the cases, we observed four duplications of the COL8A1 gene region. We also found two cases with ∼400 kb deletions involving NRXN1, a gene previously implicated in neurodevelopmental disorders, including TS. Follow-up using multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (and including 53 more TS cases) validated the CNV calls and identified additional patients with rearrangements in COL8A1 and NRXN1, but none in controls. Examination of available parents indicates that two out of three NRXN1 deletions detected in the TS cases are de-novo mutations. Our results are consistent with the proposal that rare CNVs play a role in TS aetiology and suggest a possible role for rearrangements in the COL8A1 and NRXN1 gene regions.

Rehabilitacion constructiva y funcional del Convento de Santa Monica de Potosi / sss

El Convento de Santa Monica presenta daños de consideracion; las condiciones de suelo y los cambios climaticos tan extremos que presenta el Departamento de Potosi, son los principales factores que aceleran dichos daños, sin mencionar por el transcurso del tiempo. Se realiza un levantamiento (relevamiento) y diagnostico general de lesiones del convento con lo que se prosigue con la propuesta funcional segun las necesidades de los usuarios quienes son tambien administradores, las hermanas de la Orden de San Agustin. La propuesta constructiva se presenta por elemento constructivo se sigue con las consideraciones con respecto a intervenciones historicas y las economicas...