RESUMO
Teff (Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter) is a staple, ancient food crop in Ethiopia. Its growth is affected by climate change, so it is essential to understand climatic effects on its habitat suitability in order to design countermeasures to ensure food security. Based on the four Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we predicted the potential distribution of teff under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy model (Maxent). Eleven variables were selected out of 19, according to correlation analysis combined with their contribution rates to the distribution. Simulated accuracy results validated by the area under the curve (AUC) had strong predictability with values of 0.83-0.85 for current and RCP scenarios. Our results demonstrated that mean temperature in the coldest season, precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the cold season and slope are the dominant factors driving potential teff distribution. Proportions of suitable teff area, relative to the total study area were 58% in current climate condition, 58.8% in RCP2.6, 57.6% in RCP4.5, 59.2% in RCP6.0, and 57.4% in RCP8.5, respectively. We found that warmer conditions are correlated with decreased land suitability. As expected, bioclimatic variables related to temperature and precipitation were the best predictors for teff suitability. Additionally, there were geographic shifts in land suitability, which need to be accounted for when assessing overall susceptibility to climate change. The ability to adapt to climate change will be critical for Ethiopia's agricultural strategy and food security. A robust climate model is necessary for developing primary adaptive strategies and policy to minimize the harmful impact of climate change on teff.
RESUMO
The establishment of nature reserves is a key approach for biodiversity conservation worldwide. However, the effectiveness of nature reserves established by protecting the habitat needs of surrogate species is questioned. In this study, the Baishuijiang National Nature Reserve (Baishuijiang NNR), located in the Minshan Mountains, China, which is established mainly for the conservation of giant panda (a surrogate for the conservation of other endangered species) was selected. We quantitatively evaluated the conservation effectiveness of the reserve for giant panda and co-occurring species (here, seven protected species) using a maximum entropy model (Maxent), and analyzed spatial congruence between giant panda and other seven species. Results shown that the habitat of giant panda generally included the habitat of other seven protected species, suggesting that conservation of giant panda habitat also allows the conservation for the habitat of almost co-occurring species. Hence, the natural reserve established for giant panda as a surrogate species has a relatively high effectiveness. A high proportion of the suitable habitat for six species is inside the core zone, but a high proportion of the suitable habitat for two species is located in the experimental and buffer zones. Thus, the two species are affected by human activities. To improve the conservation effectiveness of the nature reserve, the management zones need to be amended. The result of the study will be beneficial for future conservation and management of the reserve. This study provides an effective method for evaluating the conservation effectiveness of nature reserves in other area of the worldwide.
