Ascertainment and description of pedestrian and bicycling injuries and fatalities in Ontario from administrative health records 2003-2017: contributions of non-collision falls and crashes.

INTRODUCTION: Pedestrian and bicycling injuries may be less likely to be captured by traffic injury surveillance relying on police reports. Non-collision injuries, including pedestrian falls and single bicycle crashes, may be more likely than motor vehicle collisions to be missed. This study uses healthcare records to expand the ascertainment of active transportation injuries and evaluate their demographic and clinical features. METHODS: We identified pedestrian and bicyclist injuries in records of deaths, hospitalisations and emergency department visits in Ontario, Canada, between 2002 and 2017. We described the most common types of clinical injury codes among these records and assessed overall counts and proportions of injury types captured by each ascertainment definition. We also ascertained relevant fall injuries where the location was indicated as 'street or highway'. RESULTS: Pedestrian falls represented over 50% of all pedestrian injuries and affected all age groups, particularly non-fatal falls. Emergency department records indicating in-traffic bicycle injuries not involving a collision with motor vehicles increased from 14% of all bicycling injury records in 2003 to 34% in 2017. The overall number of injuries indicated by these ascertainment methods was substantially higher than official counts derived from police reports. CONCLUSION: The use of healthcare system records to ascertain bicyclist and pedestrian injuries, particularly to include non-collision falls, can more fully capture the burden of injury associated with these transportation modes.

Using community-based participatory research methods to build the foundation for an equitable integrated health data system within a Canadian urban context.

Health inequalities amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic have disproportionately affected racialized and equity-deserving communities across Canada. In the Municipality of Peel, existing data, while limited, illustrates that individuals from racialized and equity-deserving communities continue to suffer, receive delayed care, and die prematurely. In response to these troubling statistics, grassroots community advocacy has called on health systems leaders in Peel to work with community and non-profit organizations to address the critical data and infrastructure gaps that hinder addressing the social determinants of health in the region. To support these advocacy efforts, we used a community-based participatory research approach to understand how we might build a data collection ecosystem across sectors, alongside community residents and service providers, to accurately capture the data about the social determinants of health. This approach involved developing a community engagement council, defining the problem with the community, mapping what data is actively collected and what is excluded, and understanding experiences of sociodemographic data collection from community members and service providers. Guided by community voices, our study focused on sociodemographic data collection in the primary care context and identified which service providers use and collect these data, how data are used in their work, the facilitators and barriers to data use and collection. Additionally, we gained insight into how sociodemographic data collection could be respectful, safe, and properly governed from the perspectives of community members. From this study, we identify a set of eight recommendations for sociodemographic data collection and highlight limitations. This foundational community-based work will inform future research in establishing data governance in partnership with diverse and equity-deserving communities.

[Epidemiological signatures and surveillance bias in cancer]. / Signatures épidémiologiques et biais de surveillance du cancer.

Surveillance bias occurs when variations in cancer incidence are the result of changes in screening or diagnostic practices rather than increases in the true occurrence of cancer. This bias is linked to the issue of overdiagnosis and can be apprehended by looking at epidemiological signatures of cancer. We explain the concept of epidemiological signatures using the examples of melanoma and of lung and prostate cancer. Accounting for surveillance bias is particularly important for assessing the true burden of cancer and for accurately communicating cancer information to the population and decision-makers.

Le biais de surveillance se produit lorsque les variations d'incidence d'un cancer sont le résultat d'un changement dans les pratiques de dépistage ou de diagnostic plutôt que d'une augmentation de la fréquence réelle de ce cancer. Ce biais est lié au concept du surdiagnostic et peut être appréhendé en examinant les signatures épidémiologiques des cancers. Nous expliquons le concept de signature épidémiologique à l'aide des exemples du mélanome et des cancers du poumon et de la prostate. La prise en compte des biais de surveillance est particulièrement importante pour évaluer le fardeau réel du cancer et communiquer avec précision l'information sur le cancer à la population et aux décideurs.

Prevalence and temporal trends of epilepsy in children: A retrospective birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Epilepsy is one of the most common chronic neurologic diseases in children, however, few recent studies examine the prevalence of epilepsy and its evolution over time according to birth or maternal characteristics. To examine the prevalence of epilepsy in children born between 2002 and 2020 and the temporal trends by year of birth, in Ontario, Canada, overall and according to maternal and birth characteristics. METHODS: We included all in-hospital deliveries between 2002 and 2020 (N=2 343 482) in Ontario, Canada, using linked administrative health dataset. We estimated the overall prevalence of epilepsy diagnosed before the age of 18 years, by birth and maternal characteristics. For temporal trend analyses, we restricted our population to children born up to 2012 (N=1 405 271) and examined the prevalence of epilepsy diagnosed by age 8 by their year of birth, using Poisson regression. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of epilepsy in our cohort was 8.1 per 1000 live births (95% CI 8.0-8.2). Prevalence was higher for boys, for children born preterm, with congenital malformations, from multiple pregnancies, from mothers born in Canada, and for children living in deprived areas. Epilepsy prevalence diagnosed by age 8 increased slightly between 2002 and 2012 cohorts (6.9 (95% CI 6.2-7.6) to 7.3 (95% CI 6.6-8.1) per 1000 live births, respectively). Differences by gestational age as gradient and socioeconomic characteristics were persistent and stable over time, while those by pregnancy plurality and sex decreased. SIGNIFICANCE: In a large population-based birth cohort in Canada, we observed a slight increase in epilepsy prevalence over time among children born in 2002 and those born in 2012 and persistent disparities by gestational age, socioeconomic position, and maternal immigration status. This study highlights the need for continued surveillance of rates to see if this increasing trend is persistent, to understand the potential causes behind it, and to understand the persistence of these disparities.

The impact of different imputation methods on estimates and model performance: an example using a risk prediction model for premature mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To compare how different imputation methods affect the estimates and performance of a prediction model for premature mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Sex-specific Weibull accelerated failure time survival models were run on four separate datasets using complete case, mode, single and multiple imputation to impute missing values. Six performance measures were compared to access predictive accuracy (Nagelkerke R2, integrated brier score), discrimination (Harrell's c-index, discrimination slope) and calibration (calibration in the large, calibration slope). RESULTS: The highest proportion of missingness for a single variable was 10.86% for the female model and 8.24% for the male model. Comparing the performance measures for complete case, mode, single and multiple imputation: the Nagelkerke R2 values for the female model was 0.1084, 0.1116, 0.1120 and 0.111-0.1120 with the male model exhibited similar variation of 0.1050, 0.1078, 0.1078 and 0.1078-0.1081. Harrell's c-index also demonstrated small variation with values of 0.8666, 0.8719, 0.8719 and 0.8711-0.8719 for the female model and 0.8549, 0.8548, 0.8550 and 0.8550-0.8553 for the male model. CONCLUSION: In the scenarios examined in this study, mode imputation performed well when using a population health survey compared to single and multiple imputation when predictive performance measures is the main model goal. To generate unbiased hazard ratios, multiple imputation methods were superior. This study shows the need to consider the best imputation approach for a predictive model development given the conditions of missing data and the goals of the analysis.

Antipsychotic Discontinuation and New Trazodone Use in Ontario Nursing Homes: Evidence of Medication Substitution.

OBJECTIVES: An unintended consequence of efforts to reduce antipsychotic medications in nursing homes is the increase in use of other psychotropic medications; however, evidence of substitution remains limited. Our objective was to measure individual-level prescribing patterns consistent with substitution of trazodone for antipsychotics. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Residents of Ontario nursing homes aged 66-105 years with an admission assessment between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2019, who were receiving an antipsychotic and had no antidepressant medication use at admission to the nursing home. METHODS: We used linked health administrative data to examine changes in medication use over three quarterly assessments following admission. Antipsychotic and trazodone use were measured at each assessment. The rate of trazodone initiation was compared between residents no longer dispensed an antipsychotic (discontinued) and those with an ongoing antipsychotic (continued) using discrete time survival analysis, controlling for baseline resident characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 13,306 residents dispensed an antipsychotic with no antidepressant use at admission (mean age 84 years, 61.5% women, 82.8% with dementia). As of the first quarterly assessment, nearly 20% of residents no longer received an antipsychotic and 9% received a new trazodone medication. Over time, residents who discontinued antipsychotics had a rate of trazodone initiation that was 82% higher compared to residents who continued (adjusted hazard ratio 1.82, 95% CI 1.66-2.00). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Residents admitted to a nursing home with antipsychotic use had a higher rate of trazodone initiation if they discontinued (vs continued) an antipsychotic. These findings suggest antipsychotic substitution with trazodone after entering a nursing home.

Using unsupervised clustering approaches to identify common mental health profiles and associated mental health-care service-use patterns in Ontario, Canada.

Mental health is a complex, multidimensional concept that goes beyond clinical diagnoses, including psychological distress, life stress, and well-being. In this study, we aimed to use unsupervised clustering approaches to identify multidimensional mental health profiles that exist in the population, and their associated service-use patterns. The data source was the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health, linked to administrative health-care data; all Ontario, Canada, adult respondents were included. We used a partitioning around medoids clustering algorithm with Gower's proximity to identify groups with distinct combinations of mental health indicators and described them according to their sociodemographic and service-use characteristics. We identified 4 groups with distinct mental health profiles, including 1 group that met the clinical threshold for a depressive diagnosis, with the remaining 3 groups expressing differences in positive mental health, life stress, and self-rated mental health. The 4 groups had different age, employment, and income profiles and exhibited differential access to mental health-care services. This study represents the first step in identifying complex profiles of mental health at the population level in Ontario. Further research is required to better understand the potential causes and consequences of belonging to each of the mental health profiles identified. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.

HealthyPlan.City: A Web Tool to Support Urban Environmental Equity and Public Health in Canadian Communities.

Urban environmental factors such as air quality, heat islands, and access to greenspaces and community amenities impact public health. Some vulnerable populations such as low-income groups, children, older adults, new immigrants, and visible minorities live in areas with fewer beneficial conditions, and therefore, face greater health risks. Planning and advocating for equitable healthy urban environments requires systematic analysis of reliable spatial data to identify where vulnerable populations intersect with positive or negative urban/environmental characteristics. To facilitate this effort in Canada, we developed HealthyPlan.City ( https://healthyplan.city/ ), a freely available web mapping platform for users to visualize the spatial patterns of built environment indicators, vulnerable populations, and environmental inequity within over 125 Canadian cities. This tool helps users identify areas within Canadian cities where relatively higher proportions of vulnerable populations experience lower than average levels of beneficial environmental conditions, which we refer to as Equity priority areas. Using nationally standardized environmental data from satellite imagery and other large geospatial databases and demographic data from the Canadian Census, HealthyPlan.City provides a block-by-block snapshot of environmental inequities in Canadian cities. The tool aims to support urban planners, public health professionals, policy makers, and community organizers to identify neighborhoods where targeted investments and improvements to the local environment would simultaneously help communities address environmental inequities, promote public health, and adapt to climate change. In this paper, we report on the key considerations that informed our approach to developing this tool and describe the current web-based application.

The equitable impact of sugary drink taxation structures on sugary drink consumption among Canadians: a modelling study using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the impact of 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax structures on the consumption of sugary drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages and 100 % juice by age, sex and socio-economic position. DESIGN: We modelled the impact of price changes - for each tax structure - on the demand for sugary drinks by applying own- and cross-price elasticities to self-report sugary drink consumption measured using single-day 24-h dietary recalls from the cross-sectional, nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. For both 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax scenarios, we used linear regression to estimate differences in mean energy intake and proportion of energy intake from sugary drinks by age, sex, education, food security and income. SETTING: Canada. PARTICIPANTS: 19 742 respondents aged 2 and over. RESULTS: In the 20 % flat-rate scenario, we estimated mean energy intake and proportion of daily energy intake from sugary drinks on a given day would be reduced by 29 kcal/d (95 % UI: 18, 41) and 1·3 % (95 % UI: 0·8, 1·8), respectively. Similarly, in the tiered tax scenario, additional small, but meaningful reductions were estimated in mean energy intake (40 kcal/d, 95 % UI: 24, 55) and proportion of daily energy intake (1·8 %, 95 % UI: 1·1, 2·5). Both tax structures reduced, but did not eliminate, inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks despite larger consumption reductions in children/adolescents, males and individuals with lower education, food security and income. CONCLUSIONS: Sugary drink taxation, including the additional benefit of taxing 100 % juice, could reduce overall and inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks in Canada.

Exploring the use of experimental small area estimates to examine the relationship between individual-level and area-level community belonging and self-rated health.

Background: Small area estimation refers to statistical modelling procedures that leverage information or "borrow strength" from other sources or variables. This is done to enhance the reliability of estimates of characteristics or outcomes for areas that do not contain sufficient sample sizes to provide disaggregated estimates of adequate precision and reliability. There is growing interest in secondary research applications for small area estimates (SAEs). However, it is crucial to assess the analytic value of these estimates when used as proxies for individual-level characteristics or as distinct measures that offer insights at the area level. This study assessed novel area-level community belonging measures derived using small area estimation and examined associations with individual-level measures of community belonging and self-rated health. Data and methods: SAEs of community belonging within census tracts produced from the 2016-2019 cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) were merged with respondent data from the 2020 CCHS. Multinomial logistic regression models were run between area-level SAEs, individual-level sense of community belonging, and self-rated health on the study sample of people aged 18 years and older. Results: Area-level community belonging was associated with individual-level community belonging, even after adjusting for individual-level sociodemographic characteristics, despite limited agreement between individual- and area-level measures. Living in a neighbourhood with low community belonging was associated with higher odds of reporting being in fair or poor health, versus being in very good or excellent health (odds ratio: 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 1.22, 1.91), even after adjusting for other factors such as individual-level sense of community belonging, which was also associated with self-rated health. Interpretation: Area-level and individual-level sense of community belonging were independently associated with self-rated health. The novel SAEs of community belonging can be used as distinct measures of neighbourhood-level community belonging and should be understood as complementary to, rather than proxies for, individual-level measures of community belonging.

Risk of premature mortality due to smoking, alcohol use, obesity and physical activity varies by income: A population-based cohort study.

Background: Premature deaths are a strong population health indicator. There is a persistent and widening pattern of income inequities for premature mortality. We sought to understand the combined effect of health behaviours and income on premature mortality in a large population-based cohort. Methods: We analyzed a cohort of 121,197 adults in the 2005-2014 Canadian Community Health Surveys, linked to vital statistics data to ascertain deaths for up to 5 years following baseline. Information on household income quintile and mortality-relevant risk factors (smoking status, alcohol use, body mass index (BMI), and physical activity) was captured from the survey. Hazard ratios (HR) for combined income-risk factor groups were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Stratified Cox models were used to identify quintile-specific HR for each risk factor. Results: For each risk factor, HR of premature mortality was highest in the lowest-income, highest-risk group. Additionally, an income gradient was seen for premature mortality HR for every exposure level of each risk factor. In the stratified models, risk factor HRs did not vary meaningfully between income groups. All findings were consistent in the unadjusted and adjusted models. Conclusion: These findings highlight the need for targeted strategies to reduce health inequities and more careful attention to how policies and interventions are distributed at the population level. This includes targeting and tailoring resources to those in lower income groups who disproportionately experience premature mortality risk to prevent further widening health inequities.

External validation and application of the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) for prediction of type 2 diabetes onset in the US population.

INTRODUCTION: Characterizing diabetes risk in the population is important for population health assessment and diabetes prevention planning. We aimed to externally validate an existing 10-year population risk model for type 2 diabetes in the USA and model the population benefit of diabetes prevention approaches using population survey data. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT), originally derived and validated in Canada, was applied to an external validation cohort of 23 477 adults from the 2009 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). We assessed predictive performance for discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration plots against observed incident diabetes cases identified from the NHIS 2009-2018 cycles. We applied DPoRT to the 2018 NHIS cohort (n=21 187) to generate 10-year risk prediction estimates and characterize the preventive benefit of three diabetes prevention scenarios: (1) community-wide strategy; (2) high-risk strategy and (3) combined approach. RESULTS: DPoRT demonstrated good discrimination (C-statistic=0.778 (males); 0.787 (females)) and good calibration across the range of risk. We predicted a baseline risk of 10.2% and 21 076 000 new cases of diabetes in the USA from 2018 to 2028. The community-wide strategy and high-risk strategy estimated diabetes risk reductions of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The combined approach estimated a 0.4% risk reduction and 843 000 diabetes cases averted in 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: DPoRT has transportability for predicting population-level diabetes risk in the USA using routinely collected survey data. We demonstrate the model's applicability for population health assessment and diabetes prevention planning. Our modeling predicted that the combination of community-wide and targeted prevention approaches for those at highest risk are needed to reduce diabetes burden in the USA.

Characterizing high-cost healthcare users among adults with back pain in Ontario, Canada: a population-based cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Some patients with back pain contribute disproportionately to high healthcare costs; however, characteristics of high-cost users with back pain are not well defined. We described high-cost healthcare users based on total costs among a population-based cohort of adults with back pain within the Ontario government's single-payer health system across sociodemographic, health, and behavioural characteristics. We conducted a population-based cohort study of Ontario adult (aged 18 years or older) respondents of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) with back pain (2003-2012), linked to administrative data (n = 36,605; weighted n = 2,076,937, representative of Ontario). Respondents were ranked based on gradients of total healthcare costs (top 1%, top 2%-5%, top 6%-50%, and bottom 50%) for 1 year following the CCHS survey, with high-cost users as top 5%. We used multinomial logistic regression to investigate characteristics associated with the 4 cost groups. Top 5% of cost users accounted for 49% ($4 billion CAD) of total healthcare spending, with inpatient hospital care as the largest contributing service type (approximately 40% of costs). Top 5% high-cost users were more likely aged 65 years or older (ORtop1% = 16.6; ORtop2-5% = 44.2), with lower income (ORtop1% = 3.6; ORtop 2-5% = 1.8), chronic disease(s) (ORtop1% = 3.8; ORtop2-5% = 1.6), Aggregated Diagnosis Groups measuring comorbidities (ORtop1% = 25.4; ORtop2-5% = 13.9), and fair/poor self-rated general health (ORtop1% = 6.7; ORtop2-5% = 4.6) compared with bottom 50% users. High-cost users tended to be current/former smokers, obese, and report fair/poor mental health. High-cost users (based on total costs) among adults with back pain account for nearly half of all healthcare spending over a 1-year period and are associated with older age, lower income, comorbidities, and fair/poor general health. Findings identify characteristics associated with a high-risk group for back pain to inform healthcare and public health strategies that target upstream determinants.

Modeling chronic disease risk across equity factors using a population-based prediction model: the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT).

BACKGROUND: Predicting chronic disease incidence at a population level can help inform overall future chronic disease burden and opportunities for prevention. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of chronic disease in Ontario, Canada, using a population-level risk prediction algorithm and model interventions for equity-deserving groups who experience barriers to services and resources due to disadvantages and discrimination. METHODS: The validated Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) estimates the 10-year risk and incidence of major chronic diseases. CDPoRT was applied to data from the 2017/2018 Canadian Community Health Survey to predict baseline 10-year chronic disease estimates to 2027/2028 in the adult population of Ontario, Canada, and among equity-deserving groups. CDPoRT was used to model prevention scenarios of 2% and 5% risk reductions over 10 years targeting high-risk equity-deserving groups. RESULTS: Baseline chronic disease risk was highest among those with less than secondary school education (37.5%), severe food insecurity (19.5%), low income (21.2%) and extreme workplace stress (15.0%). CDPoRT predicted 1.42 million new chronic disease cases in Ontario from 2017/2018 to 2027/2028. Reducing chronic disease risk by 5% prevented 1500 cases among those with less than secondary school education, prevented 14 900 cases among those with low household income and prevented 2800 cases among food-insecure populations. Large reductions of 57 100 cases were found by applying a 5% risk reduction in individuals with quite a bit workplace stress. CONCLUSION: Considerable reduction in chronic disease cases was predicted across equity-defined scenarios, suggesting the need for prevention strategies that consider upstream determinants affecting chronic disease risk.

Measuring waning protection from seasonal influenza vaccination during nine influenza seasons, Ontario, Canada, 2010/11 to 2018/19.

BackgroundWaning immunity from seasonal influenza vaccination can cause suboptimal protection during peak influenza activity. However, vaccine effectiveness studies assessing waning immunity using vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals are subject to biases.AimWe examined the association between time since vaccination and laboratory-confirmed influenza to assess the change in influenza vaccine protection over time.MethodsUsing linked laboratory and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we identified community-dwelling individuals aged ≥ 6 months who received an influenza vaccine before being tested for influenza by RT-PCR during the 2010/11 to 2018/19 influenza seasons. We estimated the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for laboratory-confirmed influenza by time since vaccination (categorised into intervals) and for every 28 days.ResultsThere were 53,065 individuals who were vaccinated before testing for influenza, with 10,264 (19%) influenza-positive cases. The odds of influenza increased from 1.05 (95% CI: 0.91-1.22) at 42-69 days after vaccination and peaked at 1.27 (95% CI: 1.04-1.55) at 126-153 days when compared with the reference interval (14-41 days). This corresponded to 1.09-times increased odds of influenza every 28 days (aOR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.15). Individuals aged 18-64 years showed the greatest decline in protection against influenza A(H1N1) (aORper 28 days = 1.26; 95% CI: 0.97-1.64), whereas for individuals aged ≥ 65 years, it was against influenza A(H3N2) (aORper 28 days = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.08-1.33). We did not observe evidence of waning vaccine protection for individuals aged < 18 years.ConclusionsInfluenza vaccine protection wanes during an influenza season. Understanding the optimal timing of vaccination could ensure robust protection during seasonal influenza activity.

A study protocol for a predictive model to assess population-based avoidable hospitalization risk: Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Prediction Tool (AvHPoRT).

INTRODUCTION: Avoidable hospitalizations are considered preventable given effective and timely primary care management and are an important indicator of health system performance. The ability to predict avoidable hospitalizations at the population level represents a significant advantage for health system decision-makers that could facilitate proactive intervention for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs). The aim of this study is to develop and validate the Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Tool (AvHPoRT) that will predict the 5-year risk of first avoidable hospitalization for seven ACSCs using self-reported, routinely collected population health survey data. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The derivation cohort will consist of respondents to the first 3 cycles (2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06) of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) who are 18-74 years of age at survey administration and a hold-out data set will be used for external validation. Outcome information on avoidable hospitalizations for 5 years following the CCHS interview will be assessed through data linkage to the Discharge Abstract Database (1999/2000-2017/2018) for an estimated sample size of 394,600. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, self-perceived health measures, health behaviors, chronic conditions, and area-based measures. Sex-specific algorithms will be developed using Weibull accelerated failure time survival models. The model will be validated both using split set cross-validation and external temporal validation split using cycles 2000-2006 compared to 2007-2012. We will assess measures of overall predictive performance (Nagelkerke R2), calibration (calibration plots), and discrimination (Harrell's concordance statistic). Development of the model will be informed by the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the University of Toronto Research Ethics Board. The predictive algorithm and findings from this work will be disseminated at scientific meetings and in peer-reviewed publications.

Sex-based trajectories of health system use in lonely and not lonely older people: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is growing interest in understanding the care needs of lonely people but studies are limited and examine healthcare settings separately. We estimated and compared healthcare trajectories in lonely and not lonely older female and male respondents to a national health survey. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of community-dwelling, Ontario respondents (65+ years) to the 2008/2009 Canadian Community Health Survey-Healthy Aging. Respondents were classified at baseline as not lonely, moderately lonely, or severely lonely using the Three-Item Loneliness Scale and then linked with health administrative data to assess healthcare transitions over a 12 -year observation period. Annual risks of moving from the community to inpatient, long-stay home care, long-term care settings-and death-were estimated across loneliness levels using sex-stratified multistate models. RESULTS: Of 2684 respondents (58.8% female sex; mean age 77 years [standard deviation: 8]), 635 (23.7%) experienced moderate loneliness and 420 (15.6%) severe loneliness. Fewer lonely respondents remained in the community with no transitions (not lonely, 20.3%; moderately lonely, 17.5%; and severely lonely, 12.6%). Annual transition risks from the community to home care and long-term care were higher in female respondents and increased with loneliness severity for both sexes (e.g., 2-year home care risk: 6.1% [95% CI 5.5-6.6], 8.4% [95% CI 7.4-9.5] and 9.4% [95% CI 8.2-10.9] in female respondents, and 3.5% [95% CI 3.1-3.9], 5.0% [95% CI 4.0-6.0], and 5.4% [95% CI 4.0-6.8] in male respondents; 5-year long-term care risk: 9.2% [95% CI 8.0-10.8], 11.1% [95% CI 9.3-13.6] and 12.2% [95% CI 9.9-15.3] [female], and 5.3% [95% CI 4.2-6.7], 9.1% [95% CI 6.8-12.5], and 10.9% [95% CI 7.9-16.3] [male]). CONCLUSIONS: Lonely older female and male respondents were more likely to need home care and long-term care, with severely lonely female respondents having the highest probability of moving to these settings.

A national cohort study of community belonging and its influence on premature mortality.

BACKGROUND: Community belonging, an important constituent of subjective well-being, is an important target for improving population health. Ageing involves transitioning across different social conditions thus, community belonging on health may vary across the life course. Using a nationally representative cohort, this study estimates the life stage-specific impact of community belonging on premature mortality. METHODS: Six cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2000-2012) were combined and linked to the Canadian Vital Statistics Database (2000-2017). Respondents were followed for up to 5 years. Multivariable-adjusted modified Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risk of premature mortality for three life stages: early adulthood (18-35 years), middle adulthood (36-55 years) and late adulthood (56-70 years). RESULTS: The final analytical sample included 477 100 respondents. Most reported a 'somewhat strong' sense of belonging (45.9%). Compared with their 'somewhat strong' counterparts, young adults reporting a 'somewhat weak' sense of belonging exhibited an increased relative risk (RR) of 1.76 (95% CI 1.27 to 2.43) for premature mortality, whereas middle-aged adults reporting the same exhibited a decreased RR of 0.82 (95% CI 0.69, 0.98). Among older adults, groups reporting a 'very strong' (RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01, 1.21) or a 'very weak' sense (RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01, 1.28) of belonging exhibited higher RRs for premature mortality. CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate how community belonging relates to premature mortality differs across age groups underscoring the importance of considering life stage-specific perspectives when researching and developing approaches to strengthen belonging.

"Whatever journey you want to take, I'll support you through": a mixed methods evaluation of a peer worker program in the hospital emergency department.

BACKGROUND: People who are unhoused, use substances (drugs and/or alcohol), and who have mental health conditions experience barriers to care access and are frequently confronted with discrimination and stigma in health care settings. The role of Peer Workers in addressing these gaps in a hospital-based context is not well characterized. The aim of this evaluation was to 1) outline the role of Peer Workers in the care of a marginalized populations in the emergency department; 2) characterize the impact of Peer Workers on patient care, and 3) to describe how being employed as a Peer Worker impacts the Peer. METHODS: Through a concurrent mixed methods evaluation, we explore the role of Peer Workers in the care of marginalized populations in the emergency department at two urban hospitals in Toronto, Ontario Canada. We describe the demographic characteristics of patients (n = 555) and the type of supports provided to patients collected through a survey between February and June 2022. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were completed with Peer Workers (n = 7). Interviews were thematically analyzed using a deductive approach, complemented by an inductive approach to allow new themes to emerge from the data. RESULTS: Support provided to patients primarily consisted of friendly conversations (91.4%), discharge planning (59.6%), tactics to help the patient navigate their emotions/mental wellbeing (57.8%) and sharing their lived experience (50.1%). In over one third (38.9%) of all patient interactions, Peer Workers shared new information about the patient with the health care team (e.g., obtaining patient identification). Five major themes emerged from our interviews with Peer Workers which include: (1) Establishing empathy and building trust between the patient and their care team through self-disclosure; (2) Facilitating a person-centered approach to patient care through trauma-informed listening and accessible language; (3) Support for patient preferences on harm reduction; (4) Peer worker role facilitating self-acceptance and self-defined recovery; and (5) Importance of supports and resources to help Peer Workers navigate the emotional intensity of the emergency department. CONCLUSIONS: The findings add to the literature on Peer Worker programs and how such interventions are designed to best meet the needs of marginalized populations.