Legacy benefits of blood pressure treatment on cardiovascular events are primarily mediated by improved blood pressure variability: the ASCOT trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variability (BPV) is an important predictor of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. The long-term effect of a period of blood pressure (BP) control, but with differential BPV, is uncertain. Morbidity and mortality follow-up of UK participants in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Blood Pressure-Lowering Arm has been extended for up to 21 years to determine the CV impact of mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) control and BPV during the trial, and amongst those allocated to amlodipine- and atenolol-based treatment. METHODS: Eight thousand five hundred and eighty hypertensive participants (4305 assigned to amlodipine ± perindopril-based and 4275 to atenolol ± diuretic-based treatment during the in-trial period (median 5.5 years) were followed for up to 21 years (median 17.4 years), using linked hospital and mortality records. A subgroup of participants (n = 2156) was followed up 6 years after the trial closure with a self-administered questionnaire and a clinic visit. In-trial mean SBP and standard deviation of visit-to-visit SBP as a measure of BPV, were measured using >100 000 BP measurements. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the risk [hazard ratios (HRs)], associated with (i) mean with SBP and BPV during the in-trial period, for the CV endpoints occurring after the end of the trial and (ii) randomly assigned treatment to events following randomization, for the first occurrence of pre-specified CV outcomes. RESULTS: Using BP data from the in-trial period, in the post-trial period, although mean SBP was a predictor of CV outcomes {HR per 10 mmHg, 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.17], P < .001}, systolic BPV independent of mean SBP was a strong predictor of CV events [HR per 5 mmHg 1.22 (95% CI 1.18-1.26), P < .001] and predicted events even in participants with well-controlled BP. During 21-year follow-up, those on amlodipine-based compared with atenolol-based in-trial treatment had significantly reduced risk of stroke [HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.72-0.93), P = .003], total CV events [HR 0.93 (95% CI 0.88-0.98), P = .008], total coronary events [HR 0.92 (95% CI 0.86-0.99), P = .024], and atrial fibrillation [HR 0.91 (95% CI 0.83-0.99), P = .030], with weaker evidence of a difference in CV mortality [HR 0.91 (95% CI 0.82-1.01), P = .073]. There was no significant difference in the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction and fatal coronary heart disease, heart failure, and all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Systolic BPV is a strong predictor of CV outcome, even in those with controlled SBP. The long-term benefits of amlodipine-based treatment compared with atenolol-based treatment in reducing CV events appear to be primarily mediated by an effect on systolic BPV during the trial period.

A quantitative evaluation of the impact of vaccine roll-out rate and coverage on reducing deaths: insights from the first 2 years of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination has played a pivotal role in reducing the burden of COVID-19. Despite numerous studies highlighting its benefits in reducing the risk of severe disease and death, we still lack a quantitative understanding of how varying vaccination roll-out rates influence COVID-19 mortality. METHODS: We developed a framework for estimating the number of avertable COVID-19 deaths (ACDs) by vaccination in Iran. To achieve this, we compared Iran's vaccination roll-out rates with those of eight model countries that predominantly used inactivated virus vaccines. We calculated net differences in the number of fully vaccinated individuals under counterfactual scenarios where Iran's per-capita roll-out rate was replaced with that of the model countries. This, in turn, enabled us to determine age specific ACDs for the Iranian population under counterfactual scenarios where number of COVID-19 deaths are estimated using all-cause mortality data. These estimates covered the period from the start of 2020 to 20 April 2022. RESULTS: We found that while Iran would have had an approximately similar number of fully vaccinated individuals under counterfactual roll-out rates based on Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Turkey (~ 65-70%), adopting Turkey's roll-out rates could have averted 50,000 (95% confidence interval: 38,100-53,500) additional deaths, while following Bangladesh's rates may have resulted in 52,800 (17,400-189,500) more fatalities in Iran. Surprisingly, mimicking Argentina's slower roll-out led to only 12,600 (10,400-13,300) fewer deaths, despite a higher counterfactual percentage of fully vaccinated individuals (~ 79%). Emulating Montenegro or Bolivia, with faster per capita roll-out rates and approximately 50% counterfactual full vaccination, could have prevented more deaths in older age groups, especially during the early waves. Finally, replicating Bahrain's model as an upper-bound benchmark, Iran could have averted 75,300 (56,000-83,000) deaths, primarily in the > 50 age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis revealed that faster roll-outs were consistently associated with higher numbers of averted deaths, even in scenarios with lower overall coverage. This study offers valuable insights into future decision-making regarding infectious disease epidemic management through vaccination strategies. It accomplishes this by comparing various countries' relative performance in terms of timing, pace, and vaccination coverage, ultimately contributing to the prevention of COVID-19-related deaths.

Association of cognitive function with increased risk of cancer death and all-cause mortality: Longitudinal analysis, systematic review, and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Disturbed cognitive function is associated with several causes of mortality; however, the association between cognitive function and the risk of cancer death has not been extensively investigated yet. We aimed to evaluate the association of cognitive function with the risk of cancer death and all-cause mortality in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) and Leiden 85-plus Study. Additionally, a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies were conducted to evaluate the association of cognitive function and risk of cancer death. METHODS: Risk of cancer death and all-cause mortality were reported using hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) in tertiles of cognitive function of PROSPER and Leiden85-Plus Study. Additionally, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, PsycINFO, Academic Search Premier, CINHAL, and Emcare were searched up to November 1st, 2020 to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis. The relative risks (RRs) with 95%CI of cancer death per each standard deviation lower performance in cognitive measurements were calculated. RESULTS: Participants of PROSPER had 1.65-fold (95%CI 1.11-2.47) greater risk of cancer death (P for trend = 0.016) and 1.85-fold (95%CI 1.46-2.34) higher risk of all-cause mortality (P for trend<0.001), in multivariable models. Results of the Leiden-85 Plus Study showed that subjects with MMSE score below 24 had a lower chance of cancer death (HR 0.79, 95%CI 0.36-1.70, P for trend = 0.820) but had 2.18-fold (95%CI 1.57-3.02) higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to the reference group (P for trend<0.001). Besides, the results of systematic review and meta-analysis showed that per each standard deviation lower performance in cognitive function, individuals were at a 10% higher chance of cancer death (RR 1.10, 95%CI 1.00-1.20, P-value = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: Lower cognitive function performance is associated with a marginally increased risk of cancer death, in line with a significantly greater risk of all-cause mortality.

Long-Term Incidence of Stroke and Dementia in ASCOT.

Background and Purpose: Management of stroke risk factors might reduce later dementia. In ASCOT (Anglo-Scandinavian Outcome Trial), we determined whether dementia or stroke were associated with different blood pressure (BP)­lowering regimens; atorvastatin or placebo; and mean BP, BP variability, and mean cholesterol levels. Methods: Participants with hypertension and ≥3 cardiovascular disease risk factors were randomly allocated to amlodipine- or atenolol-based BP-lowering regimen targeting BP <140/90 mm Hg for 5.5 years. Participants with total cholesterol ≤6.5 mmol/L were also randomly allocated to atorvastatin 10 mg or placebo for 3.3 years. Mean and LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol, BP, and SD of BP were calculated from 6 months to end of trial. UK participants were linked to electronic health records to ascertain deaths and hospitalization in general and mental health hospitals. Dementia and stroke were ascertained by validated code lists and within-trial ascertainment. Results: Of 8580 UK participants, 7300 were followed up to 21 years from randomization. Atorvastatin for 3.3 years had no measurable effect on stroke (264 versus 272; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.78­1.09]; P=0.341) or dementia (238 versus 227; adjusted HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.82­1.18]; P=0.837) compared with placebo. Mean total cholesterol was not associated with later stroke or dementia. An amlodipine-based compared with an atenolol-based regimen for 5.5 years reduced stroke (443 versus 522; adjusted HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.72­0.93]; P=0.003) but not dementia (450 versus 465; adjusted HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.82­1.07]; P=0.334) over follow-up. BP variability (SD mean BP) was associated with a higher risk of dementia (per 5 mm Hg HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.06­1.24]; P<0.001) and stroke (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.12­1.32]; P<0.001) adjusted for mean BP. Conclusions: An amlodipine-based BP regimen reduced the long-term incidence of stroke compared with an atenolol-based regimen but had no measurable effect on dementia. Atorvastatin had no effect on either stroke or dementia. Higher BP variability was associated with a higher incidence of later dementia and stroke.

Cognitive Function in Dementia-Free Subjects and Survival in Old Age: The PROSPER Study.

BACKGROUND: Impairment in domain-specific cognitive function is associated with the increased risk of mortality. We prospectively evaluated the association of executive function and memory with the risk of long-term mortality in dementia-free older subjects. Moreover, we investigated the role of structural brain abnormalities in this association. METHODS: We included 547 dementia-free participants (mean age 78 years, 56.5% male) from the nested magnetic resonance imaging sub-study of the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER). Cox proportional hazard models were used to model 10-year risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality in relation to performance in executive function and memory. Moreover, we evaluated the role of total brain parenchymal volume, cerebral blood flow, white matter hyperintensity, and the presence of microbleeds and infarcts in the link between cognitive function and mortality. RESULTS: In the multivariable model, lower performance in executive function was associated with greater risk of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR] 1.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-1.70), cardiovascular (HR 1.69; 95% CI, 1.36-2.11), and noncardiovascular (HR 1.36; 95% CI, 1.15-1.62) mortality. Similarly, poorer performance in memory tests associated with higher risk of all-cause (HR 1.47; 95% CI, 1.29-1.68), cardiovascular (HR 1.45; 95% CI, 1.15-1.83), and noncardiovascular (HR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.27-1.76) mortality. The associations were similar in subjects with various levels of brain structural abnormalities and cerebral blood flow (all P for interaction ≫ .05). CONCLUSIONS: Poorer performance in both executive function and memory tests associates with all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality in elderly individuals. This association is independent of cardiovascular risk factors and diseases, brain structural abnormalities, and cerebral blood flow.

Lower Performance in Orientation to Time and Place Associates with Greater Risk of Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in the Oldest Old: Leiden 85-Plus Study.

Background: Impairment in orientation to time and place is commonly observed in community-dwelling older individuals. Nevertheless, the clinical significance of this has been not fully explored. In this study, we investigated the link between performance in orientation domains and future risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in a non-hospital setting of the oldest old adults. Methods: We included 528 subjects free of myocardial infarction (Group A), 477 individuals free of stroke/transient ischemic attack (Group B), and 432 subjects free of both myocardial infarction and stroke/transient ischemic attack (Group C) at baseline from the population-based Leiden 85-plus cohort study. Participants were asked to answer five questions related to orientation to time and five questions related to orientation to place. 5-year risks of first-time fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal stroke, as well as cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality, were estimated using the multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: In the multivariable analyses, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors, each point lower performance in "orientation to time" was significantly associated with higher risk of first-time myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.67, P = 0.007), first-time stroke (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.12-1.64, P = 0.002), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.06-1.54, P = 0.009) and non-cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.20-1.56, P < 0.001). Similarly, each point lower performance in "orientation to place" was significantly associated with higher risk of first-time myocardial infarction (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.25-2.22, P = 0.001), first-time stroke (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05-1.82, P = 0.016), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.00-1.82, P = 0.054) and non-cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.20-1.77, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Lower performance in orientation to time and place in advanced age is independently related to higher risk of myocardial infarction, stroke and mortality. Impaired orientation might be an early sign of covert vascular injuries, putting subjects at greater risk of cardiovascular events and mortality.

Executive function, but not memory, associates with incident coronary heart disease and stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of performance in cognitive domains executive function and memory with incident coronary heart disease and stroke in older participants without dementia. METHODS: We included 3,926 participants (mean age 75 years, 44% male) at risk for cardiovascular diseases from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) with Mini-Mental State Examination score ≥24 points. Scores on the Stroop Color-Word Test (selective attention) and the Letter Digit Substitution Test (processing speed) were converted to Z scores and averaged into a composite executive function score. Likewise, scores of the Picture Learning Test (immediate and delayed memory) were transformed into a composite memory score. Associations of executive function and memory were longitudinally assessed with risk of coronary heart disease and stroke using multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: During 3.2 years of follow-up, incidence rates of coronary heart disease and stroke were 30.5 and 12.4 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. In multivariable models, participants in the lowest third of executive function, as compared to participants in the highest third, had 1.85-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39-2.45) higher risk of coronary heart disease and 1.51-fold (95% CI 0.99-2.30) higher risk of stroke. Participants in the lowest third of memory had no increased risk of coronary heart disease (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% CI 0.74-1.32) or stroke (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% CI 0.57-1.32). CONCLUSION: Lower executive function, but not memory, is associated with higher risk of coronary heart disease and stroke. Lower executive function, as an independent risk indicator, might better reflect brain vascular pathologies.

Cognitive impairment and risk of stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cognitive impairment is linked to vascular risk factors and brain vascular pathologies. Several studies have tested whether subjects with cognitive impairment have higher risk for stroke. The aim of this study was to systematically review available evidence on the association between cognitive impairment and risk of stroke to obtain precise effect estimates of the association and to identify which cognitive domains associate most with incident stroke. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched from January 1, 1980, to October 1, 2013, without language restriction. Only prospective cohort studies were included. From each study, data on the association between cognitive impairment and stroke estimated with hazard ratios or relative risks with 95% confidence interval (CI) were extracted. For each study, risk of stroke per SD lower performance in various cognitive tests was calculated. RESULTS: Twelve studies were included, comprising 82,899 participants of whom 3043 had an incident stroke. The pooled relative risk per SD lower global cognitive performance was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.12-1.27). Each SD lower score in executive function or attention was associated with 1.14-fold (95% CI, 1.06-1.24) higher risk of stroke. Lower scores in memory were associated with 1.07-fold (95% CI, 1.02-1.12) higher risk of stroke, and lower scores in language were associated with 1.08-fold (95% CI, 1.02-1.16) higher risk of stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive impairment is associated with higher risk of stroke. The associations were not significantly different for executive function, memory, and language.

Behavioral and neurobiological effects of prenatal stress exposure in male and female APPswe/PS1dE9 mice.

Epidemiological evidence implies a role for chronic stress and stress-related disorders in the etiopathogenesis of sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD). Although chronic stress exposure during various stages of life has been shown to exacerbate AD-related cognitive deficits and neuropathology in AD mouse models, the role of stress exposure during the prenatal period on AD development and progression remained to be investigated. The present study therefore explored the effects of prenatal maternal stress (PMS) in both male and female APPswe/PS1dE9 mouse offspring in terms of cognition, affect, and AD-related neuropathology. As prenatal perturbations are likely to mediate their effects via alterations in epigenetic regulation, changes in hippocampal DNA methyltransferase 3a, 5-methylcytosine and 5-hydroxymethylcytosine levels were assessed as underlying mechanisms. Repetitive restraint stress during the first week of gestation exerted a sex-dependent effect, with male PMS mice showing spatial memory deficits and a blunted hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis response, while female PMS mice showed improved spatial memory performance, increased depressive-like behavior, as well as a decrease in hippocampal plaque load. In addition, sex differences were observed among APPswe/PS1dE9 mice, independent of PMS (i.e., female mice showed impaired spatial memory performance, higher hippocampal plaque load, altered amyloid precursor protein processing in the CA3 and lower DNA methyltransferase 3a immunoreactivity in the dentate gyrus when compared with male mice of the same age). In conclusion, PMS exposure impacts on the behavioral phenotype and neuropathology of APPswe/PS1dE9 mice. Moreover, given the remarkable sex differences observed, one should not overlook the impact of sex-specific responses to environmental exposures when investigating gene-environment interactions in AD.

Chronic phosphodiesterase type 2 inhibition improves memory in the APPswe/PS1dE9 mouse model of Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by progressive cognitive deficits and synaptic dysfunction. Over the last decade phosphodiesterase inhibitors (PDEIs) have received increasing attention as putative cognition enhancers and have been suggested as a novel treatment strategy for AD. Given their ability to prevent hydrolysis of cAMP and/or cGMP, they can stimulate the cAMP/protein kinase A (PKA)/cAMP element-binding protein (CREB) and cGMP/PKG/CREB pathway to enhance synaptic transmission by increasing CREB phosphorylation (pCREB) and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) transcription. Based on previous research, we hypothesized that chronic PDE2I treatment would improve AD-related cognitive deficits, by decreasing amyloid-ß (Aß) plaque load, enhancing pCREB and BDNF levels and increasing synaptic density in the hippocampus of 8-month-old APPswe/PS1dE9 mice. Results indicated that chronic PDE2I treatment could indeed improve memory performance in APPswe/PS1dE9 mice, without affecting anxiety, depressive-like behavior or hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis regulation. However, no treatment effects were observed on Aß plaque load, pCREB or BDNF concentrations, or presynaptic density in the hippocampus, suggesting that other signaling pathways and/or effector molecules might be responsible for its cognition-enhancing effects. Presynaptic density in the stratum lucidum of the CA3 subregion was significantly higher in APPswe/PS1dE9 mice compared to WT controls, possibly reflecting a compensatory mechanism. In conclusion, PDEs in general, and PDE2 specifically, could be considered as promising therapeutic targets for cognition enhancement in AD, although the underlying mechanism of action remains to be elucidated. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'Cognitive Enhancers'.