Maize yield prediction and condition monitoring at the sub-county scale in Kenya: synthesis of remote sensing information and crop modeling.

Agricultural production assessments are crucial for formulating strategies for closing yield gaps and enhancing production efficiencies. While in situ crop yield measurements can provide valuable and accurate information, such approaches are costly and lack scalability for large-scale assessments. Therefore, crop modeling and remote sensing (RS) technologies are essential for assessing crop conditions and predicting yields at larger scales. In this study, we combined RS and a crop growth model to assess phenology, evapotranspiration (ET), and yield dynamics at grid and sub-county scales in Kenya. We synthesized RS information from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Water Productivity Open-access portal (WaPOR) to retrieve sowing date information for driving the model simulations. The findings showed that grid-scale management information and progressive crop growth could be accurately derived, reducing the model output uncertainties. Performance assessment of the modeled phenology yielded satisfactory accuracies at the sub-county scale during two representative seasons. The agreement between the simulated ET and yield was improved with the combined RS-crop model approach relative to the crop model only, demonstrating the value of additional large-scale RS information. The proposed approach supports crop yield estimation in data-scarce environments and provides valuable insights for agricultural resource management enabling countermeasures, especially when shortages are perceived in advance, thus enhancing agricultural production.

Assessment of the environmental impacts of conflict-driven Internally Displaced Persons: A sentinel-2 satellite based analysis of land use/cover changes in the Kas locality, Darfur, Sudan.

Internal displacement of populations due to armed conflicts can substantially impact a region's Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and the efforts towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The objective of this study was to determine the effects of conflict-driven Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) on vegetation cover and environmental sustainability in the Kas locality of Darfur, Sudan. Supervised classification and change analysis were performed on Sentinel-2 satellite images for the years 2016 and 2022 using QGIS software. The Sentinel-2 Level 2A data were analysed using the Random Forest (RF) Machine Learning (ML) classifier. Five land cover types were successfully classified (agricultural land, vegetation cover, built-up area, sand, and bareland) with overall accuracies of more than 86% and Kappa coefficients greater than 0.74. The results revealed a 35.33% (-10.20 km2) decline in vegetation cover area over the six-year study period, equivalent to an average annual loss rate of -5.89% (-1.70 km2) of vegetation cover. In contrast, agricultural land and built-up areas increased by 17.53% (98.12 km2) and 60.53% (5.29 km2) respectively between the two study years. The trends of the changes among different LULC classes suggest potential influences of human activities especially the IDPs, natural processes, and a combination of both in the study area. This study highlights the impacts of IDPs on natural resources and land cover patterns in a conflict-affected region. It also offers pertinent data that can support decision-makers in restoring the affected areas and preventing further environmental degradation for sustainability.