Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary.

Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

Lifestyle, habitat and farmers' risk of exposure to tick bites in an endemic area of tick-borne diseases in Hungary.

Controlling tick bites on farmers is important to the management of tick-borne diseases and occupational health risks in agriculture. Based on an extensive household survey conducted between June and August 2015 with 219 farmers from western Hungary where tick-borne diseases are endemic, we analysed the pattern of farmers' self-reported contacts with ticks and investigated the potential interactions between farmers, landscape and the risk of exposure to tick bites. We developed a lifestyle typology based on farmers' socioeconomic profiles, farming objectives and time use patterns, and a habitat typology describing different configurations of tick habitats and agricultural areas in place of farming. We found no relationship between tick exposure risk and self-prevention. The lifestyle typology could be used to classify the risk of tick bites and the adoption of prevention measures into different levels, the difference between which could further be modified by the habitat typology. Our results suggest that (i) farmers who are frequently engaged in outdoor recreations and (ii) part-time and inexperienced farmers who have lower rate of preventive actions are likely to experience greater exposure to tick bites either in less cultivated, semi-natural habitats or in agricultural landscape with highly diverse land uses. Future disease prevention practices should take into consideration the interaction of lifestyle and habitat and the need to associate different farmer groups with different landscape configurations.

Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity.

Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.

Refining perception-based farmer typologies with the analysis of past census data.

Perception-based typologies have been used to explore the decision making process of farmers and to inform policy design. These typologies have been criticised, however, for not fully capturing true farmer behaviour, and are consequently limited for supporting policy formulation. We present a method that develops a typology, using a social survey approach based on how farmers perceive their environment (e.g. birds and agri-environmental schemes). We then apply time-series census data on past farm strategies (i.e. land use allocation, management style and participation into agri-environmental schemes) to refine these typologies. Consequently, this offers an approach to improving the profiling of farmer types, and strengthens the validity of input into future agricultural policies. While the social survey highlights a certain degree of awareness towards birds with respect to farmer types, the analysis of past farm strategies indicated that farmers did not entirely follow their stated objectives. External factors such as input and output price signals and subsidy levels had a stronger influence on their strategies rather than stated environmental and social issues. Consequently, the refining of farmer types using this approach would aid the design of policy instruments, which integrate ecological issues within planning.

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models.

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.

Analysis of spatial patterns at a geographical scale over north-western Europe from point-referenced aphid count data.

The spatial analysis by distance indices (SADIE) technique was developed to evaluate the spatial pattern of point-referenced count data as well as the spatial association between two sets of data sharing the same point locations. This paper presents an analysis of spatial patterns in aphid count data and the association of these data with climate across north-west Europe. The paper tests the applicability of the technique to large geographical areas. Aggregation and cluster indices were calculated for the total annual abundance of the peach-potato aphid Myzus persicae (Sulzer) and for the annual mean rainfall and temperature at aphid monitoring sites. Association indices demonstrated the stability in time of aphid spatial structures and the correlation between aphid density and climate patterns. Groups of relatively large numbers of aphids, termed patches, and groups of relatively small numbers of aphids, termed gaps, were located and their mean size estimated. The aphid patterns were quite stable in time and the spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall were weakly associated with M. persicae annual abundance. Similarities were observed between the results of SADIE and those from the more widely used technique of spatial autocorrelation (SAC). However, the SADIE association index has the advantage of quantifying the possible associations between aphid data and the factors that determine population distribution. Thus, high temperature and low rainfall were identified as environmental factors that were positively associated with aphid abundance across north-west Europe.