Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO2 during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO2 that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO2 and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs.

An atmospheric pCO2 reconstruction across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary from leaf megafossils.

The end-Cretaceous mass extinctions, 65 million years ago, profoundly influenced the course of biotic evolution. These extinctions coincided with a major extraterrestrial impact event and massive volcanism in India. Determining the relative importance of each event as a driver of environmental and biotic change across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) crucially depends on constraining the mass of CO(2) injected into the atmospheric carbon reservoir. Using the inverse relationship between atmospheric CO(2) and the stomatal index of land plant leaves, we reconstruct Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary atmospheric CO(2) concentration (pCO(2)) levels with special emphasis on providing a pCO(2) estimate directly above the KTB. Our record shows stable Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary background pCO(2) levels of 350-500 ppm by volume, but with a marked increase to at least 2,300 ppm by volume within 10,000 years of the KTB. Numerical simulations with a global biogeochemical carbon cycle model indicate that CO(2) outgassing during the eruption of the Deccan Trap basalts fails to fully account for the inferred pCO(2) increase. Instead, we calculate that the postboundary pCO(2) rise is most consistent with the instantaneous transfer of approximately 4,600 Gt C from the lithic to the atmospheric reservoir by a large extraterrestrial bolide impact. A resultant climatic forcing of +12 W.m(-2) would have been sufficient to warm the Earth's surface by approximately 7.5 degrees C, in the absence of counter forcing by sulfate aerosols. This finding reinforces previous evidence for major climatic warming after the KTB impact and implies that severe and abrupt global warming during the earliest Paleocene was an important factor in biotic extinction at the KTB.

Reading a CO2 signal from fossil stomata.

The inverse relationship between atmospheric CO2 and the stomatal index (proportion of epidermal cells that are stomata) of vascular land plant leaves has led to the use of fossil plant cuticles for determining ancient levels of CO2 . In contemporary plants the stomatal index repeatedly shows a lower sensitivity atmospheric CO2 levels above 340 ppm in the short term. These observations demonstrate that the phenotypic response is nonlinear and may place constraints on estimating higher-than-present palaeo-CO2 levels in this way. We review a range of evidence to investigate the nature of this nonlinearity. Our new data, from fossil Ginkgo cuticles, suggest that the genotypic response of fossil Ginkgo closely tracks the phenotypic response seen in CO2 enrichment experiments. Reconstructed atmospheric CO2 values from fossil Ginkgo cuticles compare well with the stomatal ratio method of obtaining a quantitative CO2 signal from extinct fossil plants, and independent geochemical modelling studies of the long-term carbon cycle. Although there is self-consistency between palaeobiological and geochemical CO2 estimates, it should be recognized that the nonlinear response is a limitation of the stomatal approach to estimating high palaeo-CO2 levels.

Stomatal density and stomatal index as indicators of paleoatmospheric CO(2) concentration.

A growing number of studies use the plant species-specific inverse relationship between atmospheric CO(2) concentration and stomatal density (SD) or stomatal index (SI) as a proxy for paleo-CO(2) levels. A total of 285 previously published SD and 145 SI responses to variable CO(2) concentrations from a pool of 176 C(3) plant species are analyzed here to test the reliability of this method. The percentage of responses inversely responding to CO(2) rises from 40 and 36% (for SD and SI, respectively) in experimental studies to 88 and 94% (for SD and SI, respectively) in fossil studies. The inconsistent experimental responses verify previous concerns involving this method, however the high percentage of fossil responses showing an inverse relationship clearly validates the method when applied over time scales of similar length. Furthermore, for all groups of observations, a positive relationship between CO(2) and SD/SI is found in only

Paleobotanical evidence for near present-day levels of atmospheric Co2 during part of the tertiary.

Understanding the link between the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and Earth's temperature underpins much of paleoclimatology and our predictions of future global warming. Here, we use the inverse relationship between leaf stomatal indices and the partial pressure of CO(2) in modern Ginkgo biloba and Metasequoia glyptostroboides to develop a CO(2) reconstruction based on fossil Ginkgo and Metasequoia cuticles for the middle Paleocene to early Eocene and middle Miocene. Our reconstruction indicates that CO(2) remained between 300 and 450 parts per million by volume for these intervals with the exception of a single high estimate near the Paleocene/Eocene boundary. These results suggest that factors in addition to CO(2) are required to explain these past intervals of global warmth.