The phytosanitary risks posed by seeds for sowing trade networks.

When successful, the operation of local and international networks of crop seed distribution or "seed systems" ensures farmer access to seed and impacts rural livelihoods and food security. Farmers are both consumers and producers in seed systems and benefit from access to global markets. However, phytosanitary measures and seed purity tests are also needed to maintain seed quality and prevent the spread of costly weeds, pests and diseases, in some countries regulatory controls have been in place since the 1800s. Nevertheless, seed contaminants are internationally implicated in between 7% and 37% of the invasive plant species and many of the agricultural pests and diseases. We assess biosecurity risk across international seed trade networks of forage crops using models of contaminant spread that integrate network connectivity and trade volume. To stochastically model hypothetical contaminants through global seed trade networks, realistic dispersal probabilities were estimated from quarantine weed seed detections and incursions from border security interception data in New Zealand. For our test case we use contaminants linked to the global trade of ryegrass and clover seed. Between 2014 and 2018 only four quarantine weed species (222 species and several genera are on the quarantine schedule) warranting risk mitigation were detected at the border. Quarantine weeds were rare considering that average import volumes were over 190 tonnes for ryegrass and clover, but 105 unregulated contaminant species were allowed in. Ryegrass and clover seed imports each led to one post-border weed incursion response over 20 years. Trade reports revealed complex global seed trade networks spanning >134 (ryegrass) and >110 (clover) countries. Simulations showed contaminants could disperse to as many as 50 (clover) or 80 (ryegrass) countries within 10 time-steps. Risk assessed via network models differed 18% (ryegrass) or 48% (clover) of the time compared to risk assessed on trade volumes. We conclude that biosecurity risk is driven by network position, the number of trading connections and trade volume. Risk mitigation measures could involve the use of more comprehensive lists of regulated species, comprehensive inspection protocols, or the addition of field surveillance at farms where seed is planted.

Weed seed contamination in imported seed lots entering New Zealand.

Imports of seeds for sowing are a major pathway for the introduction of contaminant seeds, and many agricultural weeds globally naturalised originally have entered through this pathway. Effective management of this pathway is a significant means of reducing future plant introductions and helps minimise agricultural losses. Using a national border inspection database, we examined the frequency, origin and identity of contaminant seeds within seed for sowing shipments entering New Zealand between 2014-2018. Our analysis looked at 41,610 seed lots across 1,420 crop seed species from over 90 countries. Overall, contamination was rare, occurring in 1.9% of all seed lots. Among the different crop types, the arable category had the lowest percentage of seed lots contaminated (0.5%) and the forage category had the highest (12.6%). Crop seeds Capsicum, Phaseolus and Solanum had the lowest contamination rates (0.0%). Forage crops Medicago (27.3%) and Trifolium (19.8%) had the highest contamination rates. Out of 191 genera recorded as contaminants, Chenopodium was the most common. Regulated quarantine weeds were the rarest contaminant type, only occurring in 0.06% of seed lots. Sorghum halepense was the most common quarantine species and was only found in vegetable seed lots. Vegetable crop seed lots accounted for approximately half of all quarantine species detections, Raphanus sativus being the most contaminated vegetable crop. Larger seed lots were significantly more contaminated and more likely to contain a quarantine species than smaller seed lots. These findings support International Seed Testing Association rules on maximum seed lot weights. Low contamination rates suggest industry practices are effective in minimising contaminant seeds. Considering New Zealand inspects every imported seed lot, utilises a working sample size 5 times larger than International Seed Testing Association rules require, trades crop seed with approximately half of the world's countries and imports thousands of crop seed species, our study provides a unique overview of contaminant seeds that move throughout the seed for sowing system.