Modeling the QBO-Improvements resulting from higher-model vertical resolution.

Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, it is shown that with proper choice of the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and relatively fine vertical layering of at least 500 m in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS), a realistic stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is modeled with the proper period, amplitude, and structure down to tropopause levels. It is furthermore shown that the specified gravity wave momentum flux controls the QBO period whereas the width of the gravity wave momentum flux phase speed spectrum controls the QBO amplitude. Fine vertical layering is required for the proper downward extension to tropopause levels as this permits wave-mean flow interactions in the UTLS region to be resolved in the model. When vertical resolution is increased from 1000 to 500 m, the modeled QBO modulation of the tropical tropopause temperatures increasingly approach that from observations, and the "tape recorder" of stratospheric water vapor also approaches the observed. The transport characteristics of our GISS models are assessed using age-of-air and N2O diagnostics, and it is shown that some of the deficiencies in model transport that have been noted in previous GISS models are greatly improved for all of our tested model vertical resolutions. More realistic tropical-extratropical transport isolation, commonly referred to as the "tropical pipe," results from the finer vertical model layering required to generate a realistic QBO.

Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere.

The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

Delayed hypersensitivity skin testing to mumps and Candida albicans antigens is normal in middle-aged HTLV-I- and-II-infected U.S. cohorts.

It has been reported that human T cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV)-I-infected persons in Japan have decreased delayed hypersensitivity skin test reactivity to tuberculin purified protein derivative (PPD), but HTLV-I- or -II-infected persons do not generally develop opportunistic infections. We administered standardized intradermal testing with PPD, mumps, and Candida albicans antigens to 31 HTLV-I, 48 HTLV-II, and 143 seronegative subjects in the United States. Reactivity at 48 hr was compared among the three groups. Response rates to PPD were very low in all subjects. Fifty-five percent of seronegative subjects did not react to mumps antigen, compared with 55% of HTLV-I [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.27-2.33] and 38% of HTLV-II (OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.33-1.64). Fifty-one percent of seronegatives did not react to Candida albicans antigen, compared with 34% of HTLV-I (OR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.15-0.93) and 46% of HTLV-II (OR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.34-1.52). Anergy was present in 33% of seronegatives, 28% of HTLV-I (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.20-1.78), and 19% of HTLV-II (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.22-1.44). HTLV-I- and -II-infected persons appear to have intact delayed hypersensitivity skin test responses to mumps and Candida albicans antigens.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario.

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH(4), and N(2)O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO(2) and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO(2) GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH(4) and O(3) precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO(2) GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO(2) emissions, this reduction of non-CO(2) GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Climate forcings in the industrial era.

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.