Does atrial fibrillation affect prognosis in hospitalised COVID-19 patients? A multicentre historical cohort study in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this multicentre COVID-PREDICT study (a nationwide observational cohort study that aims to better understand clinical course of COVID-19 and to predict which COVID-19 patients should receive which treatment and which type of care) was to determine the association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, complications and discharge destination in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. SETTING: Data from a historical cohort study in eight hospitals (both academic and non-academic) in the Netherlands between January 2020 and July 2021 were used in this study. PARTICIPANTS: 3064 hospitalised COVID-19 patients >18 years old. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the incidence of new-onset AF during hospitalisation. Secondary outcomes were the association between new-onset AF (vs prevalent or non-AF) and mortality, ICU admissions, complications and discharge destination, performed by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Of the 3064 included patients (60.6% men, median age: 65 years, IQR 55-75 years), 72 (2.3%) patients had prevalent AF and 164 (5.4%) patients developed new-onset AF during hospitalisation. Compared with patients without AF, patients with new-onset AF had a higher incidence of death (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.71, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.59) an ICU admission (aOR 5.45, 95% CI 3.90 to 7.61). Mortality was non-significantly different between patients with prevalent AF and those with new-onset AF (aOR 0.97, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.76). However, new-onset AF was associated with a higher incidence of ICU admission and complications compared with prevalent AF (OR 6.34, 95% CI 2.95 to 13.63, OR 3.04, 95% CI 1.67 to 5.55, respectively). CONCLUSION: New-onset AF was associated with an increased incidence of death, ICU admission, complications and a lower chance to be discharged home. These effects were far less pronounced in patients with prevalent AF. Therefore, new-onset AF seems to represent a marker of disease severity, rather than a cause of adverse outcomes.

What is the aetiology of dysnatraemia in COVID-19 and how is this related to outcomes in patients admitted during earlier and later COVID-19 waves? A multicentre, retrospective observational study in 11 Dutch hospitals.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relationship among dysnatraemia at hospital presentation and duration of admission, risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and all-cause mortality and to assess the underlying pathophysiological mechanism of hyponatraemia in patients with COVID-19. Our hypothesis is that both hyponatraemia and hypernatraemia at presentation are associated with adverse outcomes. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Secondary care; 11 Dutch hospitals (2 university and 9 general hospitals). PARTICIPANTS: An analysis was performed within the retrospective multicentre cohort study COVIDPredict. 7811 patients were included (60% men, 40% women) between 24 February 2020 and 9 August 2022. Patients who were ≥18 years with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 or CT with COVID-19 reporting and data system score≥4 and alternative diagnosis were included. Patients were excluded when serum sodium levels at presentation were not registered in the database or when they had been transferred from another participating hospital. OUTCOME MEASURES: We studied demographics, medical history, symptoms and outcomes. Patients were stratified according to serum sodium concentration and urinary sodium excretion. RESULTS: Hyponatraemia was present in 2677 (34.2%) patients and hypernatraemia in 126 (1.6%) patients. Patients with hyponatraemia presented more frequently with diarrhoea, lower blood pressure and tachycardia. Hyponatraemia was, despite a higher risk for ICU admission (OR 1.27 (1.11-1.46; p<0.001)), not associated with mortality or the risk for intubation. Patients with hypernatraemia had higher mortality rates (OR 2.25 (1.49-3.41; p<0.001)) and were at risk for ICU admission (OR 2.89 (1.83-4.58)) and intubation (OR 2.95 (1.83-4.74)). CONCLUSIONS: Hypernatraemia at presentation was associated with adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Hypovolaemic hyponatraemia was found to be the most common aetiology of hyponatraemia. Hyponatraemia of unknown aetiology was associated with a higher risk for ICU admission and intubation and longer duration of admission.

Overweight and Obesity Are Associated With Acute Kidney Injury and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, but Not With Increased Mortality in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Objective: To evaluate the association between overweight and obesity on the clinical course and outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Design: Retrospective, observational cohort study. Methods: We performed a multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study of hospitalized COVID-19 patients to evaluate the associations between overweight and obesity on the clinical course and outcomes. Results: Out of 1634 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, 473 (28.9%) had normal weight, 669 (40.9%) were overweight, and 492 (30.1%) were obese. Patients who were overweight or had obesity were younger, and there were more women in the obese group. Normal-weight patients more often had pre-existing conditions such as malignancy, or were organ recipients. During admission, patients who were overweight or had obesity had an increased probability of acute respiratory distress syndrome [OR 1.70 (1.26-2.30) and 1.40 (1.01-1.96)], respectively and acute kidney failure [OR 2.29 (1.28-3.76) and 1.92 (1.06-3.48)], respectively. Length of hospital stay was similar between groups. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 27.7%, and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that overweight and obesity were not associated with increased mortality compared to normal-weight patients. Conclusion: In this study, overweight and obesity were associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome and acute kidney injury, but not with in-hospital mortality nor length of hospital stay.

Predicting mortality of individual patients with COVID-19: a multicentre Dutch cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Develop and validate models that predict mortality of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 admitted to the hospital. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A multicentre cohort across 10 Dutch hospitals including patients from 27 February to 8 June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (age ≥18) admitted to the hospital. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 21-day all-cause mortality evaluated by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The predictive value of age was explored by comparison with age-based rules used in practice and by excluding age from the analysis. RESULTS: 2273 patients were included, of whom 516 had died or discharged to palliative care within 21 days after admission. Five feature sets, including premorbid, clinical presentation and laboratory and radiology values, were derived from 80 features. Additionally, an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)-based data-driven feature selection selected the 10 features with the highest F values: age, number of home medications, urea nitrogen, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, oxygen saturation (%), oxygen saturation is measured on room air, oxygen saturation is measured on oxygen therapy, blood gas pH and history of chronic cardiac disease. A linear logistic regression and non-linear tree-based gradient boosting algorithm fitted the data with an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.85) and 0.82 (0.79 to 0.85), respectively, using the 10 selected features. Both models outperformed age-based decision rules used in practice (AUC of 0.69, 0.65 to 0.74 for age >70). Furthermore, performance remained stable when excluding age as predictor (AUC of 0.78, 0.75 to 0.81). CONCLUSION: Both models showed good performance and had better test characteristics than age-based decision rules, using 10 admission features readily available in Dutch hospitals. The models hold promise to aid decision-making during a hospital bed shortage.

[Clinical course of COVID-19 in the Netherlands: an overview of 2607 patients in hospital during the first wave]. / Klinisch beloop van covid-19 in Nederland.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically collect clinical data from patients with a proven COVID-19 infection in the Netherlands. DESIGN: Data from 2579 patients with COVID-19 admitted to 10 Dutch centers in the period February to July 2020 are described. The clinical data are based on the WHO COVID case record form (CRF) and supplemented with patient characteristics of which recently an association disease severity has been reported. METHODS: Survival analyses were performed as primary statistical analysis. These Kaplan-Meier curves for time to (early) death (3 weeks) have been determined for pre-morbid patient characteristics and clinical, radiological and laboratory data at hospital admission. RESULTS: Total in-hospital mortality after 3 weeks was 22.2% (95% CI: 20.7% - 23.9%), hospital mortality within 21 days was significantly higher for elderly patients (> 70 years; 35, 0% (95% CI: 32.4% - 37.8%) and patients who died during the 21 days and were admitted to the intensive care (36.5% (95% CI: 32.1% - 41.3%)). Apart from that, in this Dutch population we also see a risk of early death in patients with co-morbidities (such as chronic neurological, nephrological and cardiac disorders and hypertension), and in patients with more home medication and / or with increased urea and creatinine levels. CONCLUSION: Early death due to a COVID-19 infection in the Netherlands appears to be associated with demographic variables (e.g. age), comorbidity (e.g. cardiovascular disease) but also disease char-acteristics at admission.