Prediction models for exacerbations in different COPD patient populations: comparing results of five large data sources.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Exacerbations are important outcomes in COPD both from a clinical and an economic perspective. Most studies investigating predictors of exacerbations were performed in COPD patients participating in pharmacological clinical trials who usually have moderate to severe airflow obstruction. This study was aimed to investigate whether predictors of COPD exacerbations depend on the COPD population studied. METHODS: A network of COPD health economic modelers used data from five COPD data sources - two population-based studies (COPDGene® and The Obstructive Lung Disease in Norrbotten), one primary care study (RECODE), and two studies in secondary care (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoint and UPLIFT) - to estimate and validate several prediction models for total and severe exacerbations (= hospitalization). The models differed in terms of predictors (depending on availability) and type of model. RESULTS: FEV1% predicted and previous exacerbations were significant predictors of total exacerbations in all five data sources. Disease-specific quality of life and gender were predictors in four out of four and three out of five data sources, respectively. Age was significant only in the two studies including secondary care patients. Other significant predictors of total exacerbations available in one database were: presence of cough and wheeze, pack-years, 6-min walking distance, inhaled corticosteroid use, and oxygen saturation. Predictors of severe exacerbations were in general the same as for total exacerbations, but in addition low body mass index, cardiovascular disease, and emphysema were significant predictors of hospitalization for an exacerbation in secondary care patients. CONCLUSIONS: FEV1% predicted, previous exacerbations, and disease-specific quality of life were predictors of exacerbations in patients regardless of their COPD severity, while age, low body mass index, cardiovascular disease, and emphysema seem to be predictors in secondary care patients only.

Access to orphan drugs in western Europe: can more systematic policymaking really help to avoid different decisions about the same drug?

When the Scottish government recently launched a £21 million fund to provide patients with rare diseases access to treatment, Alex Neill, the Scottish Health Secretary, stated that 'it was only right that Scottish patients with rare conditions had access to innovative medicines which were clinically justified, and that they were not disadvantaged due to the very high cost of these treatments'. This statement raises questions about the criteria that play a role in reimbursement decisions on orphan drugs. This editorial examines the criteria that were used in the decisions about the reimbursement of an orphan drug for Pompe disease and explores methods to improve the transparency and consistency of reimbursement decisions for orphan drugs in general.

Changes in costs and effects after the implementation of disease management programs in the Netherlands: variability and determinants.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to investigate the changes in costs and outcomes after the implementation of various disease management programs (DMPs), to identify their potential determinants, and to compare the costs and outcomes of different DMPs. METHODS: We investigated the 1-year changes in costs and effects of 1,322 patients in 16 DMPs for cardiovascular risk (CVR), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and diabetes mellitus (DMII) in the Netherlands. We also explored the within-DMP predictors of these changes. Finally, a cost-utility analysis was performed from the healthcare and societal perspective comparing the most and the least effective DMP within each disease category. RESULTS: This study showed wide variation in development and implementation costs between DMPs (range:€16;€1,709) and highlighted the importance of economies of scale. Changes in health care utilization costs were not statistically significant. DMPs were associated with improvements in integration of CVR care (0.10 PACIC units), physical activity (+0.34 week-days) and smoking cessation (8% less smokers) in all diseases. Since an increase in physical activity and in self-efficacy were predictive of an improvement in quality-of-life, DMPs that aim to improve these are more likely to be effective. When comparing the most with the least effective DMP in a disease category, the vast majority of bootstrap replications (range:73%;97) pointed to cost savings, except for COPD (21%). QALY gains were small (range:0.003;+0.013) and surrounded by great uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: After one year we have found indications of improvements in level of integrated care for CVR patients and lifestyle indicators for all diseases, but in none of the diseases we have found indications of cost savings due to DMPs. However, it is likely that it takes more time before the improvements in care lead to reductions in complications and hospitalizations.

Improving inhaler adherence in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The PHARMACOP-intervention significantly improved medication adherence and inhalation technique for patients with COPD compared with usual care. This study aimed to evaluate its cost-effectiveness. METHODS: An economic analysis was performed from the Belgian healthcare payer's perspective. A Markov model was constructed in which a representative group of patients with COPD (mean age of 70 years, 66% male, 43% current smokers and mean Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second of % predicted of 50), was followed for either receiving the 3-month PHARMACOP-intervention or usual care. Three types of costs were calculated: intervention costs, medication costs and exacerbation costs. Outcome measures included the number of hospital-treated exacerbations, cost per prevented hospital-treated exacerbation and cost per Quality Adjusted Life-Year. Follow-up was 1 year in the basecase analysis. Sensitivity and scenario analyses (including long-term follow-up) were performed to assess uncertainty. RESULTS: In the basecase analysis, the average overall costs per patient for the PHARMACOP-intervention and usual care were €2,221 and €2,448, respectively within the 1-year time horizon. This reflects cost savings of €227 for the PHARMACOP-intervention. The PHARMACOP-intervention resulted in the prevention of 0.07 hospital-treated exacerbations per patient (0.177 for PHARMACOP versus 0.244 for usual care). Results showed robust cost-savings in various sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Optimization of current pharmacotherapy (e.g. close monitoring of inhalation technique and medication adherence) has been shown to be cost-saving and should be considered before adding new therapies.

The potential for integrated care programmes to improve quality of care as assessed by patients with COPD: early results from a real-world implementation study in The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who were enrolled in disease-management programmes (DMPs) felt that they received a better quality of care than non-enrolled COPD patients. METHODS: Our cross-sectional study was performed among patients (n=665) enrolled in four DMPs in the Netherlands. We also evaluated COPD patients (n=227) not enrolled in such programmes. Patients' assessment of chronic-illness care (PACIC) was measured with a 20-item questionnaire. The instrument had five pre-defined domains: patient activation (three items), delivery-system/practice design (three items), goal setting/tailoring (five items), problem solving/contextual (four items), and follow-up/coordination (five items). RESULTS: THE MEAN OVERALL PACIC SCORE (SCALE: 1-5) of enrolled DMP patients was 2.94, and that of non-enrolled DMP patients was 2.73 (p≤0.01). Differences in the same direction were found in the subscales of patient activation (p≤0.01), delivery-system/practice design (p≤0.001), and problem solving/contextual (p≤0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that even in the early stages of implementation, DMPs for COPD may significantly improve care.