Recent trends in tuberculosis in children in London.

BACKGROUND: Childhood tuberculosis (TB) represents a sentinel event of recent transmission and is an indication of the effectiveness of prevention and control interventions. We analysed the trends in the epidemiology of TB in children in London aged 0-14 years between 1999 and 2006. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Enhanced TB Surveillance System. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2006, there were 1370 cases of TB in children. Incidence was higher in older children and in girls. The incidence rates in London Boroughs varied from 0.4/100,000 to 32.7/100,000. Between 1999 and 2006, Black-Africans comprised 49.2% of all TB cases in children, children from the Indian Subcontinent 21.8% and Whites 8.5%. The proportion of cases born in the UK averaged 52.4% during this period. Of non-UK-born children 79.3% were diagnosed with TB within 5 years of entry. CONCLUSIONS: Ethnicity, country of birth and age are important risk factors for development of. With an overall TB incidence in London exceeding 40/100,000, universal BCG immunization of all neonates should be considered across all London boroughs.

Verbal autopsy can consistently measure AIDS mortality: a validation study in Tanzania and Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy is currently the only option for obtaining cause of death information in most populations with a widespread HIV/AIDS epidemic. METHODS: With the use of a data-driven algorithm, a set of criteria for classifying AIDS mortality was trained. Data from two longitudinal community studies in Tanzania and Zimbabwe were used, both of which have collected information on the HIV status of the population over a prolonged period and maintained a demographic surveillance system that collects information on cause of death through verbal autopsy. The algorithm was then tested in different times (two phases of the Zimbabwe study) and different places (Tanzania and Zimbabwe). RESULTS: The trained algorithm, including nine signs and symptoms, performed consistently based on sensitivity and specificity on verbal autopsy data for deaths in 15-44-year-olds from Zimbabwe phase I (sensitivity 79%; specificity 79%), phase II (sensitivity 83%; specificity 75%) and Tanzania (sensitivity 75%; specificity 74%) studies. The sensitivity dropped markedly for classifying deaths in 45-59-year-olds. CONCLUSIONS: Verbal autopsy can consistently measure AIDS mortality with a set of nine criteria. Surveillance should focus on deaths that occur in the 15-44-year age group for which the method performs reliably. Addition of a handful of questions related to opportunistic infections would enable other widely used verbal autopsy tools to apply this validated method in areas for which HIV testing and hospital records are unavailable or incomplete.