Modeling reservoir management for malaria control in Ethiopia.

This study investigated how changes in reservoir water level affect mosquito abundance and malaria transmission in Ethiopia. Digital elevation models of three Ethiopian dams at lowland, midland and highland elevations were used to quantify water surface area and wetted shoreline at different reservoir water levels (70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and 100% full capacity) to estimate surface area of potential mosquito breeding habitat. Reservoir water level drawdown rates of 10, 15 and 20 mm.day-1 were applied as scenarios to model larval abundance, entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and malaria prevalence at each dam. Malaria treatment cost and economic cost in terms of lost working days were calculated for each water level scenario and dam. At the lowland dam, increased larval abundances were associated with increasing reservoir water level and wetted shoreline area. In contrast, both larval abundances and area of wetted shoreline declined with increasing reservoir water level at the midland and highland dams. Estimated EIR, malaria prevalence, malaria treatment cost and economic cost generally decreased when the water level drawdown rate increased from 10 to 15 and 20 mm.day-1 irrespective of reservoir water level. Given the expansion of dam construction in sub-Saharan Africa, incorporating malaria control measures such as manipulating drawdown rates into reservoir management has the potential to reduce the malaria burden and health care costs in communities near reservoirs.

Environmental and meteorological factors linked to malaria transmission around large dams at three ecological settings in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of evidence suggests that dams intensify malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the environmental characteristics underpinning patterns in malaria transmission around dams are poorly understood. This study investigated local-scale environmental and meteorological variables linked to malaria transmission around three large dams in Ethiopia. METHODS: Monthly malaria incidence data (2010-2014) were collected from health centres around three dams located at lowland, midland and highland elevations in Ethiopia. Environmental (elevation, distance from the reservoir shoreline, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), monthly reservoir water level, monthly changes in water level) and meteorological (precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperature) data were analysed to determine their relationship with monthly malaria transmission at each dam using correlation and stepwise multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: Village distance to reservoir shoreline (lagged by 1 and 2 months) and monthly change in water level (lagged by 1 month) were significantly correlated with malaria incidence at all three dams, while NDVI (lagged by 1 and 2 months) and monthly reservoir water level (lagged by 2 months) were found to have a significant influence at only the lowland and midland dams. Precipitation (lagged by 1 and 2 months) was also significantly associated with malaria incidence, but only at the lowland dam, while minimum and maximum air temperatures (lagged by 1 and 2 months) were important factors at only the highland dam. CONCLUSION: This study confirmed that reservoir-associated factors (distance from reservoir shoreline, monthly average reservoir water level, monthly water level change) were important predictors of increased malaria incidence in villages around Ethiopian dams in all elevation settings. Reservoir water level management should be considered as an additional malaria vector control tool to help manage malaria transmission around dams.

Can water-level management reduce malaria mosquito abundance around large dams in sub-Saharan Africa?

BACKGROUND: Water level management has been suggested as a potential tool to reduce malaria around large reservoirs. However, no field-based test has been conducted to assess the effect of water level management on mosquito larval abundance in African settings. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the effects of water level drawdown rates on mosquito larval abundance. METHODS: Twelve experimental dams were constructed on the foreshore of the Koka Dam in Ethiopia. These were grouped into four daily water drawdown treatments, each with three replicates: no water-level drawdown (Group 1; Control), 10 mm.d-1 (Group 2), 15 mm.d-1 (Group 3) and 20 mm.d-1 (Group 4). Larval sampling was conducted weekly for a period of 6 weeks each in the main malaria transmission season (October to November 2013) and subsequent dry season (February to March 2014). Larval densities were compared among treatments over time using repeated measures Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). RESULTS: A total of 284 Anopheles mosquito larvae were collected from the experimental dams during the study period. Most (63.4%; n = 180) were collected during the main malaria transmission season while the remaining (36.6%; n = 104) were collected during the dry season. Larvae comprised four Anopheles species, dominated by Anopheles arabiensis (48.1% of total larval samples; n = 136) and An. pharoensis (33.2%; n = 94). Mean larval density was highest in control treatment dams with stable water levels throughout the study, and decreased significantly (P < 0.05) with increasing water drawdown rates in both seasons. During the main transmission season, anopheline larval density was generally lower by 30%, 70% and 84% in Groups 2, Group 3 and Group 4, respectively, compared with the control dams (Group 1). In the dry season, larval density was reduced by 45%, 70% and 84% in Groups 2, Group 3 and Group 4, respectively, when compared to the control dams. CONCLUSION: Increased water drawdown rates were associated with lower mosquito larval abundance. Water level management could thus serve as a potential control measure for malaria vectors around reservoirs by regulating the persistence of shallow shoreline breeding habitats. Dam operators and water resource managers should consider incorporating water level management as a malaria control mechanism into routine dam operations to manage the risk of malaria transmission to human populations around reservoirs.

Scaling biodiversity responses to hydrological regimes.

Of all ecosystems, freshwaters support the most dynamic and highly concentrated biodiversity on Earth. These attributes of freshwater biodiversity along with increasing demand for water mean that these systems serve as significant models to understand drivers of global biodiversity change. Freshwater biodiversity changes are often attributed to hydrological alteration by water-resource development and climate change owing to the role of the hydrological regime of rivers, wetlands and floodplains affecting patterns of biodiversity. However, a major gap remains in conceptualising how the hydrological regime determines patterns in biodiversity's multiple spatial components and facets (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic). We synthesised primary evidence of freshwater biodiversity responses to natural hydrological regimes to determine how distinct ecohydrological mechanisms affect freshwater biodiversity at local, landscape and regional spatial scales. Hydrological connectivity influences local and landscape biodiversity, yet responses vary depending on spatial scale. Biodiversity at local scales is generally positively associated with increasing connectivity whereas landscape-scale biodiversity is greater with increasing fragmentation among locations. The effects of hydrological disturbance on freshwater biodiversity are variable at separate spatial scales and depend on disturbance frequency and history and organism characteristics. The role of hydrology in determining habitat for freshwater biodiversity also depends on spatial scaling. At local scales, persistence, stability and size of habitat each contribute to patterns of freshwater biodiversity yet the responses are variable across the organism groups that constitute overall freshwater biodiversity. We present a conceptual model to unite the effects of different ecohydrological mechanisms on freshwater biodiversity across spatial scales, and develop four principles for applying a multi-scaled understanding of freshwater biodiversity responses to hydrological regimes. The protection and restoration of freshwater biodiversity is both a fundamental justification and a central goal of environmental water allocation worldwide. Clearer integration of concepts of spatial scaling in the context of understanding impacts of hydrological regimes on biodiversity will increase uptake of evidence into environmental flow implementation, identify suitable biodiversity targets responsive to hydrological change or restoration, and identify and manage risks of environmental flows contributing to biodiversity decline.

Modelling food-web mediated effects of hydrological variability and environmental flows.

Environmental flows are designed to enhance aquatic ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms; however, to date most attention has been paid to the effects on habitat quality and life-history triggers, especially for fish and vegetation. The effects of environmental flows on food webs have so far received little attention, despite food-web thinking being fundamental to understanding of river ecosystems. Understanding environmental flows in a food-web context can help scientists and policy-makers better understand and manage outcomes of flow alteration and restoration. In this paper, we consider mechanisms by which flow variability can influence and alter food webs, and place these within a conceptual and numerical modelling framework. We also review the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to modelling the effects of hydrological management on food webs. Although classic bioenergetic models such as Ecopath with Ecosim capture many of the key features required, other approaches, such as biogeochemical ecosystem modelling, end-to-end modelling, population dynamic models, individual-based models, graph theory models, and stock assessment models are also relevant. In many cases, a combination of approaches will be useful. We identify current challenges and new directions in modelling food-web responses to hydrological variability and environmental flow management. These include better integration of food-web and hydraulic models, taking physiologically-based approaches to food quality effects, and better representation of variations in space and time that may create ecosystem control points.

Malaria impact of large dams at different eco-epidemiological settings in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Dams are important to ensure food security and promote economic development in sub-Saharan Africa. However, a poor understanding of the negative public health consequences from issues such as malaria could affect their intended advantages. This study aims to compare the malaria situation across elevation and proximity to dams. Such information may contribute to better understand how dams affect malaria in different eco-epidemiological settings. METHODS: Larval and adult mosquitoes were collected from dam and non-dam villages around the Kesem (lowland), Koka (midland), and Koga (highland) dams in Ethiopia between October 2013 and July 2014. Determination of blood meal sources and detection of Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites was done using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Five years of monthly malaria case data (2010-2014) were also collected from health centers in the study villages. RESULTS: Mean monthly malaria incidence was two- and ten-fold higher in the lowland dam village than in midland and highland dam villages, respectively. The total surface area of anopheline breeding habitats and the mean larval density was significantly higher in the lowland dam village compared with the midland and highland dam villages. Similarly, the mean monthly malaria incidence and anopheline larval density was generally higher in the dam villages than in the non-dam villages in all the three dam settings. Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles pharoensis, and Anopheles funestus s.l. were the most common species, largely collected from lowland and midland dam villages. Larvae of these species were mainly found in reservoir shoreline puddles and irrigation canals. The mean adult anopheline density was significantly higher in the lowland dam village than in the midland and highland dam villages. The annual entomological inoculation rate (EIR) of An. arabiensis, An. funestus s.l., and An. pharoensis in the lowland dam village was 129.8, 47.8, and 33.3 infective bites per person per annum, respectively. The annual EIR of An. arabiensis and An. pharoensis was 6.3 and 3.2 times higher in the lowland dam village than in the midland dam village. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the presence of dams intensifies malaria transmission in lowland and midland ecological settings. Dam and irrigation management practices that could reduce vector abundance and malaria transmission need to be developed for these regions.

The Influence of Dams on Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The construction of dams in sub-Saharan Africa is pivotal for food security and alleviating poverty in the region. However, the unintended adverse public health implications of extending the spatial distribution of water infrastructure are poorly documented and may minimize the intended benefits of securing water supplies. This paper reviews existing studies on the influence of dams on the spatial distribution of malaria parasites and vectors in sub-Saharan Africa. Common themes emerging from the literature were that dams intensified malaria transmission in semi-arid and highland areas with unstable malaria transmission but had little or no impact in areas with perennial transmission. Differences in the impacts of dams resulted from the types and characteristics of malaria vectors and their breeding habitats in different settings of sub-Saharan Africa. A higher abundance of a less anthropophilic Anopheles arabiensis than a highly efficient vector A. gambiae explains why dams did not increase malaria in stable areas. In unstable areas where transmission is limited by availability of water bodies for vector breeding, dams generally increase malaria by providing breeding habitats for prominent malaria vector species. Integrated vector control measures that include reservoir management, coupled with conventional malaria control strategies, could optimize a reduction of the risk of malaria transmission around dams in the region.

Cattle-derived microbial input to source water catchments: An experimental assessment of stream crossing modification.

The provision of safe drinking water is a global issue, and animal production is recognized as a significant potential origin of human infectious pathogenic microorganisms within source water catchments. On-farm management can be used to mitigate livestock-derived microbial pollution in source water catchments to reduce the risk of contamination to potable water supplies. We applied a modified Before-After Control Impact (BACI) design to test if restricting the access of livestock to direct contact with streams prevented longitudinal increases in the concentrations of faecal indicator bacteria and suspended solids. Significant longitudinal increases in pollutant concentrations were detected between upstream and downstream reaches of the control crossing, whereas such increases were not detected at the treatment crossing. Therefore, while the crossing upgrade was effective in preventing cattle-derived point source pollution by between 112 and 158%, diffuse source pollution to water supplies from livestock is not ameliorated by this intervention alone. Our findings indicate that stream crossings that prevent direct contact between livestock and waterways provide a simple method for reducing pollutant loads in source water catchments, which ultimately minimises the likelihood of pathogenic microorganisms passing through source water catchments and the drinking water supply system. The efficacy of the catchment as a primary barrier to pathogenic risks to drinking water supplies would be improved with the integration of management interventions that minimise direct contact between livestock and waterways, combined with the mitigation of diffuse sources of livestock-derived faecal matter from farmland runoff to the aquatic environment.