RESUMO
This paper focuses on the distribution of the cattle tick, Boophilus microplus, in Mexico. The study is aimed to understand the climate factors responsible of the recorded distribution that can statistically define the suitable habitat for the tick. Sites where the tick is recorded display significantly higher values of some climate variables in comparison with those where the tick is absent, namely mean monthly temperature (T) and atmospheric water vapour (W), yearly accumulated T, W and rainfall (R) (p < 0.001 for every variable), with smaller significance for the yearly sum of T/R and T/W ratios (p < 0.05). Interestingly, variables involving the Normalized Derived Vegetation Index (NDVI) do not shown statistical differences between the sites where the tick is present or absent. The best set of habitat-defining variables was integrated into a framework to assess the habitat suitability for the tick in Mexico. We used a point-to-point similarity metric to assign a classification value to a candidate site based on the proximity in environmental space of the most similar record site. A combination of 7 yearly and monthly values for temperature, rainfall and water vapour variables captured the tick distribution. Model performance, as tested with a separate set of distribution tests and defined by the AUC value, was 0.89. Causes of errors as detected with a visual comparison of both known and predicted distribution of the tick may be attributed to the use of a medium resolution, unable to capture locally important features of tick distribution, and to incomplete collections in some parts of the country.
