Estimating synchronous demographic changes across populations using hABC and its application for a herpetological community from northeastern Brazil.

Many studies propose that Quaternary climatic cycles contracted and/or expanded the ranges of species and biomes. Strong expansion-contraction dynamics of biomes presume concerted demographic changes of associated fauna. The analysis of temporal concordance of demographic changes can be used to test the influence of Quaternary climate on diversification processes. Hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) is a powerful and flexible approach that models genetic data from multiple species, and can be used to estimate the temporal concordance of demographic processes. Using available single-locus data, we can now perform large-scale analyses, both in terms of number of species and geographic scope. Here, we first compared the power of four alternative hABC models for a collection of single-locus data. We found that the model incorporating an a priori hypothesis about the timing of simultaneous demographic change had the best performance. Second, we applied the hABC models to a data set of seven squamate and four amphibian species occurring in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (Caatinga) in northeastern Brazil, which, according to paleoclimatic evidence, experienced an increase in aridity during the Pleistocene. If this increase was important for the diversification of associated xeric-adapted species, simultaneous population expansions should be evident at the community level. We found a strong signal of synchronous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene, supporting the increase of the Caatinga during this time. This expansion likely enhanced the formation of communities adapted to high aridity and seasonality and caused regional extirpation of taxa adapted to wet forest.

Integrating data-deficient species in analyses of evolutionary history loss.

There is an increasing interest in measuring loss of phylogenetic diversity and evolutionary distinctiveness which together depict the evolutionary history of conservation interest. Those losses are assessed through the evolutionary relationships between species and species threat status or extinction probabilities. Yet, available information is not always sufficient to quantify the threat status of species that are then classified as data deficient. Data-deficient species are a crucial issue as they cause incomplete assessments of the loss of phylogenetic diversity and evolutionary distinctiveness. We aimed to explore the potential bias caused by data-deficient species in estimating four widely used indices: HEDGE, EDGE, PDloss, and Expected PDloss. Second, we tested four different widely applicable and multitaxa imputation methods and their potential to minimize the bias for those four indices. Two methods are based on a best- vs. worst-case extinction scenarios, one is based on the frequency distribution of threat status within a taxonomic group and one is based on correlates of extinction risks. We showed that data-deficient species led to important bias in predictions of evolutionary history loss (especially high underestimation when they were removed). This issue was particularly important when data-deficient species tended to be clustered in the tree of life. The imputation method based on correlates of extinction risks, especially geographic range size, had the best performance and enabled us to improve risk assessments. Solving threat status of DD species can fundamentally change our understanding of loss of phylogenetic diversity. We found that this loss could be substantially higher than previously found in amphibians, squamate reptiles, and carnivores. We also identified species that are of high priority for the conservation of evolutionary distinctiveness.

Speciation with gene flow in whiptail lizards from a Neotropical xeric biome.

Two main hypotheses have been proposed to explain the diversification of the Caatinga biota. The riverine barrier hypothesis (RBH) claims that the São Francisco River (SFR) is a major biogeographic barrier to gene flow. The Pleistocene climatic fluctuation hypothesis (PCH) states that gene flow, geographic genetic structure and demographic signatures on endemic Caatinga taxa were influenced by Quaternary climate fluctuation cycles. Herein, we analyse genetic diversity and structure, phylogeographic history, and diversification of a widespread Caatinga lizard (Cnemidophorus ocellifer) based on large geographical sampling for multiple loci to test the predictions derived from the RBH and PCH. We inferred two well-delimited lineages (Northeast and Southwest) that have diverged along the Cerrado-Caatinga border during the Mid-Late Miocene (6-14 Ma) despite the presence of gene flow. We reject both major hypotheses proposed to explain diversification in the Caatinga. Surprisingly, our results revealed a striking complex diversification pattern where the Northeast lineage originated as a founder effect from a few individuals located along the edge of the Southwest lineage that eventually expanded throughout the Caatinga. The Southwest lineage is more diverse, older and associated with the Cerrado-Caatinga boundaries. Finally, we suggest that C. ocellifer from the Caatinga is composed of two distinct species. Our data support speciation in the presence of gene flow and highlight the role of environmental gradients in the diversification process.