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1.
Lancet ; 403(10434): 1328-1329, 2024 Apr 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38554729
2.
Lancet ; 401(10394): 2099-2100, 2023 06 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37356436
3.
Lancet Glob Health ; 11(4): e597-e605, 2023 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36925179

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Maternal and newborn mortality rates in Nigeria are among the highest globally, and large socioeconomic inequalities exist in access to maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) services in the country. Inequalities also exist in catastrophic health expenditure among households in Nigeria. We aimed to estimate the health and financial risk protection benefits across different wealth groups in Nigeria if a policy of public financing of MNCH interventions were to be introduced. METHODS: We did an extended cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate the health and financial risk protection benefits, across different household wealth quintiles, of a public-financing policy that assumes zero out-of-pocket costs to patients at the point of care for 18 essential MNCH services. We projected health outcomes (deaths in children aged <5 years [under-5 deaths] and maternal deaths) and private expenditure averted using the Lives Saved Tool with data extracted from national surveys. We modelled three scenarios: 1) coverage expansion at a rate equal to the trend observed between 2013 and 2018 (status quo); 2) annual coverage expansion by 5% compared with the status quo (uniform scale-up scenario); and 3) annual coverage expansion by 10%, 8%, 6%, 4%, and 2% compared with the status quo from the poorest to the wealthiest quintiles, respectively (pro-poor scale-up scenario). FINDINGS: Our analysis shows that, if an additional 5% increase in coverage was provided for all wealth quintiles between 2019 and 2030, this uniform scale-up policy would prevent more than 0·11 million maternal deaths and 1·05 million under-5 deaths, avert US$1·8 billion in private expenditure, and avert 3266 cases of catastrophic health expenditure. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio would be $44 per life-year gained, which is highly cost-effective when compared with the gross domestic product per capita of Nigeria for 2018 ($2028). The policy would prevent a higher number of under-5 deaths and catastrophic health expenditure cases in poorer quintiles, but would prevent more maternal deaths and private expenditure in wealthier quintiles. If poorer populations experienced a greater increase in service coverage (ie, the pro-poor scale-up scenario), more maternal and under-5 deaths would be prevented in the poorer quintiles and more private expenditure would be averted than would be under previous scenarios. INTERPRETATION: Public financing of essential MNCH interventions in Nigeria would provide substantial health and financial risk protection benefits to Nigerian households. These benefits would accrue preferentially to the poorest quintiles and would contribute towards reduction of health and socioeconomic inequalities in Nigeria. The distribution would be more pro-poor if public financing of MNCH interventions could target poor households. FUNDING: WHO Partnership for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health.


Assuntos
Saúde da Criança , Morte Materna , Criança , Recém-Nascido , Feminino , Humanos , Análise de Custo-Efetividade , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Gastos em Saúde , Política Pública , Financiamento Governamental
5.
PLoS One ; 15(10): e0238776, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33035242

RESUMO

Globally, increasing efforts have been made to hold duty-bearers to account for their commitments to improve reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health (RMNCAH) over the past two decades, including via social accountability approaches: citizen-led, collective processes for holding duty-bearers to account. There have been many individual studies and several reviews of social accountability approaches but the implications of their findings to inform future accountability efforts are not clear. We addressed this gap by conducting a review of reviews in order to summarise the current evidence on social accountability for RMNCAH, identify factors contributing to intermediary outcomes and health impacts, and identify future research and implementation priorities. The review was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO CRD42019134340). We searched eight databases and systematic review repositories and sought expert recommendations for published and unpublished reviews, with no date or language restrictions. Six reviews were analysed using narrative synthesis: four on accountability or social accountability approaches for RMNCAH, and two specifically examining perinatal mortality audits, from which we extracted information relating to community involvement in audits. Our findings confirmed that there is extensive and growing evidence for social accountability approaches, particularly community monitoring interventions. Few documented social accountability approaches to RMNCAH achieve transformational change by going beyond information-gathering and awareness-raising, and attention to marginalised and vulnerable groups, including adolescents, has not been well documented. Drawing generalisable conclusions about results was difficult, due to inconsistent nomenclature and gaps in reporting, particularly regarding objectives, contexts, and health impacts. Promising approaches for successful social accountability initiatives include careful tailoring to the social and political context, strategic planning, and multi-sectoral/multi-stakeholder approaches. Future primary research could advance the evidence by describing interventions and their results in detail and in their contexts, focusing on factors and processes affecting acceptability, adoption, and effectiveness.


Assuntos
Saúde , Responsabilidade Social , Adolescente , Saúde do Adolescente , Criança , Saúde da Criança , Participação da Comunidade , Feminino , Humanos , Saúde do Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Saúde Materna , Avaliação das Necessidades , Mortalidade Perinatal , Gravidez , Saúde Reprodutiva
7.
Lancet Glob Health ; 8(3): e374-e386, 2020 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32035034

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Four methods have previously been used to track aid for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH). At a meeting of donors and stakeholders in May, 2018, a single, agreed method was requested to produce accurate, predictable, transparent, and up-to-date estimates that could be used for analyses from both donor and recipient perspectives. Muskoka2 was developed to meet these needs. We describe Muskoka2 and present estimates of levels and trends in aid for RMNCH in 2002-17, with a focus on the latest estimates for 2017. METHODS: Muskoka2 is an automated algorithm that generates disaggregated estimates of aid for reproductive health, maternal and newborn health, and child health at the global, donor, and recipient-country levels. We applied Muskoka2 to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Creditor Reporting System (CRS) aid activities database to generate estimates of RMNCH disbursements in 2002-17. The percentage of disbursements that benefit RMNCH was determined using CRS purpose codes for all donors except Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the UN Population Fund; and UNICEF; for which fixed percentages of aid were considered to benefit RMNCH. We analysed funding by donor for the 20 largest donors, by recipient-country income group, and by recipient for the 16 countries with the greatest RMNCH need, defined as the countries with the worst levels in 2015 on each of seven health indicators. FINDINGS: After 3 years of stagnation, reported aid for RMNCH reached $15·9 billion in 2017, the highest amount ever reported. Among donors reporting in both 2016 and 2017, aid increased by 10% ($1·4 billion) to $15·4 billion between 2016 and 2017. Child health received almost half of RMNCH disbursements in 2017 (46%, $7·4 billion), followed by reproductive health (34%, $5·4 billion), and maternal and newborn health (19%, $3·1 billion). The USA ($5·8 billion) and the UK ($1·6 billion) were the largest bilateral donors, disbursing 46% of all RMNCH funding in 2017 (including shares of their core contributions to multilaterals). The Global Fund and Gavi were the largest multilateral donors, disbursing $1·7 billion and $1·5 billion, respectively, for RMNCH from their core budgets. The proportion of aid for RMNCH received by low-income countries increased from 31% in 2002 to 52% in 2017. Nigeria received 7% ($1·1 billion) of all aid for RMNCH in 2017, followed by Ethiopia (6%, $876 million), Kenya (5%, $754 million), and Tanzania (5%, $751 million). INTERPRETATION: Muskoka2 retains the speed, transparency, and donor buy-in of the G8's previous Muskoka approach and incorporates eight innovations to improve precision. Although aid for RMNCH increased in 2017, low-income and middle-income countries still experience substantial funding gaps and threats to future funding. Maternal and newborn health receives considerably less funding than reproductive health or child health, which is a persistent issue requiring urgent attention. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Partnership for Maternal, Newborn & Child Health.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Saúde da Criança/economia , Saúde Global/economia , Saúde do Lactente/economia , Cooperação Internacional , Saúde Materna/economia , Saúde Reprodutiva/economia , Criança , Países em Desenvolvimento , Feminino , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Gravidez , Reino Unido , Estados Unidos
9.
Eur J Psychotraumatol ; 11(1): 1816649, 2020 Dec 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33680342

RESUMO

Background: Internationally deployed humanitarian aid (HA) workers are routinely confronted with potentially traumatic stressors. However, it remains unknown whether HA deployment and related traumatic stress are associated with long-term changes in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis function. Therefore, we investigated whether cortisol awakening response (CAR) decreased upon deployment and whether this was moderated by previous and recent trauma exposure and parallel changes in symptom severity and perceived social support. Methods: In this prospective study, n = 86 HA workers (68% females) completed questionnaires regarding trauma exposure, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety and depressive symptoms and perceived social support, as well as salivary cortisol assessments at awakening and 30 minutes post-awakening at before, early and 3-6 months post-deployment. Results: Linear mixed models showed significantly decreased CAR (b(SE) = -.036(.011), p = .002) and awakening cortisol over time (b(SE) = -.007(.003), p = .014). The extent of awakening cortisol change was significantly moderated by interactions between previous and recent trauma exposure. Also, a steeper awakening cortisol decrease was significantly associated with higher mean anxiety and PTSD symptoms across assessments. No significant effects were found for social support. Conclusions: We observed attenuated CAR and awakening cortisol upon HA deployment, with a dose-response effect between trauma exposure before and during the recent deployment on awakening cortisol. Awakening cortisol change was associated with PTSD and anxiety symptom levels across assessments. Our findings support the need for organizational awareness that work-related exposures may have long-lasting biological effects. Further research assessing symptoms and biological measures in parallel is needed to translate current findings into guidelines on the individual level.


Antecedentes: Los trabajadores de la ayuda humanitaria desplegados internacionalmente (HA) se enfrentan rutinariamente a estresores potencialmente traumáticos. Sin embargo, aún se desconoce si el despliegue de la HA y el estrés traumático relacionado están asociados con cambios a largo plazo en la función del eje hipotalámico-pituitaria-suprarrenal (HPA). Por lo tanto, investigamos si la respuesta del cortisol al despertar (CAR, en sus siglas en inglés) disminuyó en el momento del despliegue y si esto fue moderado por una anterior o reciente exposición a un trauma y los cambios paralelos en la gravedad de los síntomas y el apoyo social percibido.Métodos: En este estudio prospectivo, x = 86 trabajadores de la HA (68% mujeres) completaron cuestionarios sobre la exposición al trauma, el trastorno de estrés postraumático (TEPT), la ansiedad y los síntomas depresivos y el apoyo social percibido, así como evaluaciones del cortisol salival al despertar y 30 minutos después del despertar, antes, durante y 3-6 meses después del despliegue.Resultados: Los modelos lineales mixtos mostraron una disminución significativa de la CAR (b(SE) = −.036(.011), p = .002) y del cortisol al despertar, en el transcurso del tiempo (b(SE) = −.007(.003), p = .014). El grado de cambio en el cortisol al despertar fue significativamente moderado por las interacciones entre la exposición anterior y reciente al trauma. Además, una disminución más pronunciada del cortisol al despertar se asoció significativamente con una mayor media de ansiedad y síntomas de TEPT en todas las evaluaciones. No se encontraron efectos significativos en cuanto al apoyo social.Conclusiones: Observamos CAR atenuado y cortisol al despertar en el despliegue de HA, con un efecto dosis-respuesta en el cortisol al despertar, entre la exposición al trauma antes y durante el reciente despliegue. El cambio de cortisol al despertar se asoció con el TEPT y los niveles de síntomas de ansiedad en todas las evaluaciones. Nuestros hallazgos apoyan la necesidad de la conciencia organizacional de que las exposiciones relacionadas con el trabajo pueden tener efectos biológicos duraderos. Se necesitan más investigaciones que evalúen los síntomas y las medidas biológicas en paralelo para traducir los hallazgos actuales en directrices a nivel individual.

11.
AIDS Behav ; 21(Suppl 1): 34-43, 2017 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27896550

RESUMO

Monitoring and evaluation indicators for HIV programs' response to the epidemic among key populations (sex workers, people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men, transgender people) are critical for reviewing the global response. From the beginning of global reporting, insufficiency of data has been a challenge for monitoring the epidemic response among key populations. However, key populations were only indirectly referenced in the 2001 Declaration of Commitment. By the 2006 Political Declaration on HIV/AIDS, data from key populations were still not required from every country, and were sparsely reported compared to other indicators. The 2011 Political Declaration on HIV/AIDS referenced key populations by name for the first time. In 2006, fewer than twenty countries (10%) reported HIV prevalence among key populations, whereas in 2012 the number of countries surpassed sixty (30%).


Assuntos
Saúde Global/tendências , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Homossexualidade Masculina , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Profissionais do Sexo , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida , Adulto , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Masculino , Programas Nacionais de Saúde , Prevalência , Nações Unidas
12.
Bull World Health Organ ; 94(8): 605-12, 2016 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27516638

RESUMO

In bio-behavioural surveys measuring prevalence of infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), respondents should be asked the results of their last HIV test. However, many government authorities, nongovernmental organizations, researchers and other civil society stakeholders have stated that respondents involved in such surveys should not be asked to self-report their HIV status. The reasons offered for not asking respondents to report their status are that responses may be inaccurate and that asking about HIV status may violate the respondents' human rights and exacerbate stigma and discrimination. Nevertheless, we contend that, in the antiretroviral therapy era, asking respondents in bio-behavioural surveys to self-report their HIV status is essential for measuring and improving access to - and coverage of - services for the care, treatment and prevention of HIV infection. It is also important for estimating the true size of the unmet needs in addressing the HIV epidemic and for interpreting the behaviours associated with the acquisition and transmission of HIV infection correctly. The data available indicate that most participants in health-related surveys are willing to respond to a question about HIV status - as one of possibly several sensitive questions about sexual and drug use behaviours. Ultimately, normalizing the self-reporting of HIV status could help the global community move from an era of so-called exceptionalism to one of destigmatization - and so improve the epidemic response worldwide.


Dans les enquêtes bio-comportementales évaluant la prévalence de l'infection par le virus de l'immunodéficience humaine (VIH), il conviendrait de demander aux répondants le résultat de leur dernier test de dépistage du VIH. Mais nombre d'autorités gouvernementales, d'organisations non gouvernementales, de chercheurs et d'acteurs de la société civile sont défavorables à ce que l'on demande aux répondants de déclarer leur statut VIH dans ce type d'enquêtes. Parmi les raisons invoquées pour ne pas demander le statut VIH figure le fait que les réponses peuvent être inexactes et qu'une telle demande pourrait transgresser les droits humains des répondants et accentuer les problèmes de stigmatisation et de discrimination. Néanmoins, nous soutenons qu'aujourd'hui, à l'ère de la thérapie antirétrovirale, le fait de demander leur statut VIH aux répondants des enquêtes bio-comportementales est essentiel à des fins d'évaluation des services de soins, traitement et prévention de l'infection à VIH et pour en optimiser l'accès et la couverture. Cela est également fondamental pour évaluer la véritable ampleur des besoins non satisfaits dans la gestion de l'épidémie de VIH et pour correctement interpréter les comportements associés à l'acquisition et à la transmission du VIH. Les données disponibles indiquent que la plupart des participants aux enquêtes liées à la santé acceptent de répondre à une question sur leur statut VIH, parmi d'autres questions sensibles concernant les comportements sexuels et l'usage de drogues. Enfin, une normalisation de l'auto-déclaration du statut VIH pourrait aider la communauté mondiale à dépasser ce que l'on appelle « l'exceptionnalisme ¼ pour ouvrir une ère de déstigmatisation, ce qui permettrait d'améliorer la réponse face à l'épidémie dans le monde entier.


Durante la realización de encuestas bioconductuales que miden la prevalencia del contagio del virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana (VIH), los encuestados deberían entregar los resultados de la última prueba de VIH a la que se hayan sometido. No obstante, muchas autoridades gubernamentales, organizaciones no gubernamentales, investigadores y otras partes interesadas de la sociedad civil han declarado que las personas encuestadas implicadas en dichas encuestas no deberían tener que realizar una autodeclaración de su estado con relación al VIH. Las razones expuestas para no pedir a los encuestados que informen de su condición son que las respuestas pueden ser inexactas y que preguntarles por su estado en relación al VIH puede violar sus derechos humanos y exacerbar la estigmatización y la discriminación. Sin embargo, se sostiene que, en la era de terapias antirretrovirales, solicitar a los encuestados en encuestas bioconductuales que declaren su estado en relación al VIH es fundamental para medir y mejorar el acceso a, y la cobertura de, servicios para la atención, el tratamiento y la prevención del contagio del VIH. También es importante para estimar el verdadero alcance de las necesidades insatisfechas a la hora de abordar la epidemia de VIH, así como para interpretar las conductas asociadas a la adquisición y transmisión del virus de forma adecuada. Los datos disponibles indican que la mayor parte de los participantes en encuestas relacionadas con la salud están dispuestos a responder una pregunta sobre su estado en relación al VIH como una de las muchas posibles preguntas delicadas sobre comportamientos sexuales y de consumo de drogas. Por último, normalizar las declaraciones sobre el estado en relación al VIH podría ayudar a la comunidad mundial a pasar de una época caracterizada por el "excepcionalismo" a una caracterizada por la "desestigmatización", y, de este modo, mejorar la respuesta frente a las epidemias a nivel mundial.


Assuntos
Ciências Biocomportamentais , Soropositividade para HIV , Autorrelato , Soropositividade para HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Necessidades e Demandas de Serviços de Saúde , Homossexualidade Masculina , Direitos Humanos , Humanos , Masculino , Discriminação Social , Estigma Social
16.
PLoS Med ; 10(9): e1001510, 2013.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24137103

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Few studies have monitored late presentation (LP) of HIV infection over the European continent, including Eastern Europe. Study objectives were to explore the impact of LP on AIDS and mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: LP was defined in Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) as HIV diagnosis with a CD4 count <350/mm(3) or an AIDS diagnosis within 6 months of HIV diagnosis among persons presenting for care between 1 January 2000 and 30 June 2011. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with LP and Poisson regression to explore the impact on AIDS/death. 84,524 individuals from 23 cohorts in 35 countries contributed data; 45,488 were LP (53.8%). LP was highest in heterosexual males (66.1%), Southern European countries (57.0%), and persons originating from Africa (65.1%). LP decreased from 57.3% in 2000 to 51.7% in 2010/2011 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.96; 95% CI 0.95-0.97). LP decreased over time in both Central and Northern Europe among homosexual men, and male and female heterosexuals, but increased over time for female heterosexuals and male intravenous drug users (IDUs) from Southern Europe and in male and female IDUs from Eastern Europe. 8,187 AIDS/deaths occurred during 327,003 person-years of follow-up. In the first year after HIV diagnosis, LP was associated with over a 13-fold increased incidence of AIDS/death in Southern Europe (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 13.02; 95% CI 8.19-20.70) and over a 6-fold increased rate in Eastern Europe (aIRR 6.64; 95% CI 3.55-12.43). CONCLUSIONS: LP has decreased over time across Europe, but remains a significant issue in the region in all HIV exposure groups. LP increased in male IDUs and female heterosexuals from Southern Europe and IDUs in Eastern Europe. LP was associated with an increased rate of AIDS/deaths, particularly in the first year after HIV diagnosis, with significant variation across Europe. Earlier and more widespread testing, timely referrals after testing positive, and improved retention in care strategies are required to further reduce the incidence of LP.


Assuntos
Comportamento Cooperativo , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Soropositividade para HIV/epidemiologia , Contagem de Linfócito CD4 , Progressão da Doença , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/imunologia , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/epidemiologia , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do Tratamento
17.
PLoS One ; 7(9): e44948, 2012.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22984592

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: International humanitarian aid workers providing care in emergencies are subjected to numerous chronic and traumatic stressors. OBJECTIVES: To examine consequences of such experiences on aid workers' mental health and how the impact is influenced by moderating variables. METHODOLOGY: We conducted a longitudinal study in a sample of international non-governmental organizations. Study outcomes included anxiety, depression, burnout, and life and job satisfaction. We performed bivariate regression analyses at three time points. We fitted generalized estimating equation multivariable regression models for the longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: Study participants from 19 NGOs were assessed at three time points: 212 participated at pre-deployment; 169 (80%) post-deployment; and 154 (73%) within 3-6 months after deployment. Prior to deployment, 12 (3.8%) participants reported anxiety symptoms, compared to 20 (11.8%) at post-deployment (p = 0.0027); 22 (10.4%) reported depression symptoms, compared to 33 (19.5%) at post-deployment (p = 0.0117) and 31 (20.1%) at follow-up (p = .00083). History of mental illness (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.45-12.50) contributed to an increased risk for anxiety. The experience of extraordinary stress was a contributor to increased risk for burnout depersonalization (AOR 1.5; 95% CI 1.17-1.83). Higher levels of chronic stress exposure during deployment were contributors to an increased risk for depression (AOR 1.1; 95% CI 1.02-1.20) comparing post- versus pre-deployment, and increased risk for burnout emotional exhaustion (AOR 1.1; 95% CI 1.04-1.19). Social support was associated with lower levels of depression (AOR 0.9; 95% CI 0.84-0.95), psychological distress (AOR = 0.9; [CI] 0.85-0.97), burnout lack of personal accomplishment (AOR 0.95; 95% CI 0.91-0.98), and greater life satisfaction (p = 0.0213). CONCLUSIONS: When recruiting and preparing aid workers for deployment, organizations should consider history of mental illness and take steps to decrease chronic stressors, and strengthen social support networks.


Assuntos
Ansiedade/diagnóstico , Ansiedade/etiologia , Esgotamento Profissional , Depressão/diagnóstico , Depressão/etiologia , Estresse Psicológico , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Organizações , Análise de Regressão , Apoio Social
19.
PLoS One ; 7(1): e31184, 2012.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22563366

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.


Assuntos
Homossexualidade Masculina/estatística & dados numéricos , Densidade Demográfica , Adulto , Idoso , Coleta de Dados , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Feminino , Humanos , Internet , Japão , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Adulto Jovem
20.
PLoS One ; 7(2): e30216, 2012.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22348000

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa. METHODS: We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15-49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm(3) (current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011-2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm(3) prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9-194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%. CONCLUSION: Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.


Assuntos
Fármacos Anti-HIV/economia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Contagem de Linfócito CD4 , Análise Custo-Benefício/tendências , Custos e Análise de Custo/tendências , Previsões , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/economia , Humanos , África do Sul
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