What influences decisions to transfer older care-home residents to the emergency department? A synthesis of qualitative reviews.

BACKGROUND: care home residents aged over 65 have disproportionate rates of emergency department (ED) attendance and hospitalisation. Around 40% attendances may be avoidable, and hospitalisation is associated with harms. We synthesised the evidence available in qualitative systematic reviews of different stakeholders' experiences of decisions to transfer residents to the ED. METHODS: six electronic databases, references and citations of included reviews and relevant policy documents were searched. Reviews of qualitative studies exploring factors that influenced care home staff, medical practitioners, residents' family or residents' experiences and factors influencing decisions to transfer residents to the ED were included. Thematic analysis was used to synthesise findings. RESULTS: six previous reviews were included, which synthesised the findings of 34 primary studies encompassing 152 care home residents, 283 resident family members or carers and 447 care home staff. Of the primary studies, 19 were conducted in the North America, seven in Australia, five were conducted in Scandinavia, two in the United Kingdom and one in Holland. Three themes were identified: (i) power dynamics between residents, family members, care home staff and health care professionals (external to the care home) influence decisions; (ii) admission can be necessary; however, (iii) some decisions may be driven by factors other than clinical need. CONCLUSION: transfer decisions are complex and are determined not just by changes in health status interventions aimed at reducing avoidable transfers need to address the key role family members have in transfer decisions, the medical legal fears of care home staff and barriers to accessing community services.

Factors associated with increased Emergency Department transfer in older long-term care residents: a systematic review.

The proportion of adults older than 65 years is rapidly increasing. Care home residents in this age group have disproportionate rates of transfer to the Emergency Department (ED) and around 40% of attendances might be avoidable. We did a systematic review to identify factors that predict ED transfer from care homes. Six electronic databases were searched. Observational studies that provided estimates of association between ED attendance and variables at a resident or care home level were included. 26 primary studies met the inclusion criteria. Seven common domains of factors assessed for association with ED transfer were identified and within these domains, male sex, age, presence of specific comorbidities, polypharmacy, rural location, and care home quality rating were associated with likelihood of ED transfer. The identification of these factors provides useful information for policy makers and researchers intending to either develop interventions to reduce hospitalisations or use adjusted rates of hospitalisation as a care home quality indicator.

Care of the older trauma patient following low-energy transfer trauma-highlighting a research void.

BACKGROUND: in high-income countries trauma patients are becoming older, more likely to have comorbidities, and are being injured by low-energy mechanisms. This systematic review investigates the association between higher-level trauma centre care and outcomes of adult patients who were admitted to hospital due to injuries sustained following low-energy trauma. METHODS: a systematic review was conducted in January 2021. Studies were eligible if they reported outcomes in adults admitted to hospital due to low-energy trauma. In the presence of study heterogeneity, a narrative synthesis was pre-specified. RESULTS: three studies were included from 2,898 unique records. The studies' risk of bias was moderate-to-serious. All studies compared outcomes in trauma centres verified by the American College of Surgeons in the USA. The mean/median ages of patients in the studies were 73.4, 74.5 and 80 years. The studies reported divergent results. One demonstrated improved outcomes in level 3 or 4 trauma centres (Observed: Expected Mortality 0.973, 95% CI: 0.971-0.975), one demonstrated improved outcomes in level 1 trauma centres (Adjusted Odds Ratio 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56-0.91), and one demonstrated no difference between level 1 or 2 and level 3 or 4 trauma centre care (adjusted odds ratio 0.91, 95% CI: 0.80-1.04). CONCLUSIONS: the few relevant studies identified provided discordant evidence for the value of major trauma centre care following low-energy trauma. The main implication of this review is the paucity of high-quality research into the optimum care of patients injured in low-energy trauma. Further studies into triage, interventions and research methodology are required.

Building artificial intelligence and machine learning models : a primer for emergency physicians.

There has been a rise in the number of studies relating to the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in healthcare. Its potential in Emergency Medicine (EM) has been explored in recent years with operational, predictive, diagnostic and prognostic emergency department (ED) implementations being developed. For EM researchers building models de novo, collaborative working with data scientists is invaluable throughout the process. Synergism and understanding between domain (EM) and data experts increases the likelihood of realising a successful real-world model. Our linked manuscript provided a conceptual framework (including a glossary of AI terms) to support clinicians in interpreting AI research. The aim of this paper is to supplement that framework by exploring the key issues for clinicians and researchers to consider in the process of developing an AI model.

Individual risk factors predictive of major trauma in pre-hospital injured older patients: a systematic review.

Background: Older adults with major trauma are frequently under-triaged, increasing the risk of preventable morbidity and mortality. The aim of this systematic review was to identify which individual risk factors and predictors are likely to increase the risk of major trauma in elderly patients presenting to emergency medical services (EMS) following injury, to inform future elderly triage tool development. Methods: Several electronic databases (including Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library) were searched from inception to February 2021. Prospective or retrospective diagnostic studies were eligible if they examined a prognostic factor (often termed predictor or risk factor) for, or diagnostic test to identify, major trauma. Selection of studies, data extraction and risk of bias assessments using the Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool were undertaken independently by at least two reviewers. Narrative synthesis was used to summarise the findings. Results: Nine studies, all performed in US trauma networks, met review inclusion criteria. Vital signs (Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate and shock index with specific elderly cut-off points), EMS provider judgement, comorbidities and certain crash scene variables (other occupants injured, occupant not independently mobile and head-on collision) were identified as significant pre-hospital variables associated with major trauma in the elderly in multi-variable analyses. Heart rate and anticoagulant were not significant predictors. Included studies were at moderate or high risk of bias, with applicability concerns secondary to selected study populations. Conclusions: Existing pre-hospital major trauma triage tools could be optimised for elderly patients by including elderly-specific physiology thresholds. Future work should focus on more relevant reference standards and further evaluation of novel elderly relevant triage tool variables and thresholds.

Comparison of qSOFA and Hospital Early Warning Scores for prognosis in suspected sepsis in emergency department patients: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and many tools exist to facilitate early recognition. This review compares two tools: the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and Early Warning Scores (National/Modified Early Warning Scores (NEWS/MEWS)) for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality when applied in the emergency department. METHODS: A literature search was conducted using Medline, CINAHL, Embase and Cochrane Library, handsearching of references and a grey literature search with no language or date restrictions. Two authors selected studies and quality assessment completed using QUADAS-2. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivities and specificities were compared. RESULTS: 13 studies were included, totalling 403 865 patients. All reported mortality and six reported ICU admission.The ranges for AUROC estimates varied from little better than chance to good prediction of mortality (NEWS: 0.59-0.88; qSOFA: 0.57-0.79; MEWS 0.56-0.75), however, individual papers generally reported higher AUROC values for NEWS than qSOFA. NEWS values demonstrated a tendency towards better sensitivity for ICU admission (NEWS ≥5, 46%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 12%-53%) and mortality (NEWS ≥5, 51%-97%; qSOFA ≥2, 14%-71%) but lower specificity (ICU: NEWS ≥5, 25%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 67%-99%; mortality: NEWS ≥5, 22%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 58%-99%). CONCLUSION: The wide range of AUROC estimates and high heterogeneity limit our conclusions. Allowing for this, the NEWS AUROC was consistently higher than qSOFA within individual papers. Both scores allow threshold setting, determined by the preferred compromise between sensitivity and specificity. At established thresholds NEWS tended to higher sensitivity while qSOFA tended to a higher specificity. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019131414.

Retrospective single-centre descriptive study of the characteristics, management and outcomes of adult patients with suspected sepsis in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) with suspected sepsis recommend protocols and bundles that promote rapid and potentially intensive treatment, but give little consideration of how patient characteristics, such as age, functional status and comorbidities, might influence management. This study aimed to describe the characteristics, management and outcomes of adults attending the ED with suspected sepsis, and specifically describe the prevalence of comorbidities, functional impairment and escalations of care. METHODS: We undertook a single-centre retrospective observational study involving medical record review of a random sample of adults admitted to an ED between February 2018 and January 2019 with suspected sepsis. Descriptive statistics were used with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for key proportions. RESULTS: We included 509 patients (median age 74 years), of whom 49.3% met the Sepsis-3 criteria. Less than half of the patients were living at home independently (42.5%) or could walk independently (41.5%), 19.3% were care home residents and 89.2% of patients had one or more comorbidity. 22% had a pre-existing do not attempt resuscitation order. 6.5% were referred to intensive care, and 34.3% of the 13.2% who died in-hospital had an escalation plan explicitly documented. CONCLUSION: Adults with suspected sepsis have substantial functional limitations, comorbidities and treatment directives that should be considered in guidelines, especially recommendations for escalation of care.

Diagnostic accuracy of prehospital triage tools for identifying major trauma in elderly injured patients: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Older adults with major trauma are frequently undertriaged, increasing the risk of preventable morbidity and mortality. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of prehospital triage tools to identify suspected elderly trauma patients in need of specialized trauma care. METHODS: Several electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library) were searched from inception to February 2019. Prospective or retrospective diagnostic studies were eligible if they examined prehospital triage tools as index tests (either scored theoretically using observed patient variables or evaluated according to actual paramedic transport decisions) compared with a reference standard for major trauma in elderly adults who require transport by paramedics following injury. Selection of studies, data extraction, and risk of bias assessments using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool were undertaken independently by at least two reviewers. Narrative synthesis was used to summarize the findings. RESULTS: Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria, with 11 studies examining theoretical accuracy, three evaluating real-life transport decisions, and one assessing both (of 21 individual index tests). Estimates for sensitivity and specificity were highly variable with sensitivity estimates ranging from 19.8% to 95.5% and 57.7% to 83.3% for theoretical accuracy and real life triage performance, respectively. Specificity results were similarly diverse ranging from 17.0% to 93.1% for theoretical accuracy and 46.3% to 78.9% for actual paramedic decisions. Most studies had unclear or high risk of bias and applicability concerns. There were no obvious differences between different triage tools, and findings did not appear to vary systematically with major trauma prevalence, age, alternative reference standards, study designs, or setting. CONCLUSION: Existing prehospital triage tools may not accurately identify elderly patients with serious injury. Future work should focus on more relevant reference standards, establishing the best trade-off between undertriage and overtriage, optimizing the role prehospital clinician judgment, and further developing geriatric specific triage variables and thresholds. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Systematic review, level III.

Risk of significant traumatic brain injury in adults with minor head injury taking direct oral anticoagulants: a cohort study and updated meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients taking direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) commonly undergo CT head imaging after minor head injury, regardless of symptoms or signs. However, the risk of intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) in such patients is unclear, and further research has been recommended by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence head injury guideline group. METHODS: An observational cohort study was performed in the UK South Yorkshire major trauma centre between 26 June and 3 September 2018. Adult patients taking DOACs with minor head injury were prospectively identified, with case ascertainment supplemented by screening of radiology and ED information technology systems. Clinical and outcome data were subsequently collated from patient records. The primary endpoint was adverse outcome within 30 days, comprising: neurosurgery, ICH or death due to head injury. A previously published meta-analysis was updated with the current results and the findings of other recent studies. RESULTS: 148 patients with minor head injury were included (GCS 15, n=107, 72%; GCS 14, n=41, 28%). Patients were elderly (median 82 years) and most frequently injured from ground level falls (n=142, 96%). Overall risk of adverse outcome was 3.4% (5/148, 95% CI 1.4% to 8.0%). Five patients had ICH, of whom one died within 30 days. One patient was treated with prothrombin complex concentrate but no patient received critical care management or underwent neurosurgical intervention. Updated random effects meta-analysis, including the current results and two further recent studies, showed a weighted overall risk of adverse outcome of 3.2% (n=29/787, 95% CI 2.0% to 4.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of adverse outcome following mild head injury in patients taking DOACs appears low. These findings would support shared patient-clinician decision making, rather than routine imaging, following minor head injury while taking DOACs.