Rib fracture as a predictor of future fractures in young and older postmenopausal women: National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA).

UNLABELLED: A rib fracture history after age 45 was associated with a 5.4-fold increase in new rib fracture risk and a 2.4-fold increase in risk of any new clinical fracture in 155,031 postmenopausal women. A rib fracture history suggests osteoporosis and should be considered when evaluating patients for interventions to prevent fractures. INTRODUCTION: Until recently, little attention was paid to rib fracture as an osteoporosis marker. Emerging evidence suggests rib fracture may be an osteoporotic fracture in men and women. We report the 5-year independent association between baseline rib fracture histories and self-reported future fractures by age (decade) in the NORA cohort (155,031 postmenopausal women, 50-99 years). METHODS: Participants reported fracture history and responded to follow-up surveys at years 1, 3, or 6. Women with a baseline rib fracture history without other fractures were compared with women with no fracture. RESULTS: At baseline, 4,758 (3.07%) women reported a rib fracture history without other fractures; 6,300 women reported 6,830 new clinical fractures, including wrist (2,271), rib (1,891), spine (1,136), hip (941), and forearm (591). Adjusted relative risk (ARR) values (95% confidence interval [CI]) for future fractures in women with rib fracture history versus women with no fracture history were 5.4 (4.8-6.1) at the rib, 2.1 (1.7-2.6) at the spine, and 1.4 (1.1-1.7) at the wrist, and not significant for forearm or hip fractures. Future fracture risk was at least doubled in women with a rib fracture history in all ages: ARR (95% CI) 3.4 (2.8-4.0) for ages 50-59, 2.5 (2.1-3.0) for ages 60-69, 2.0 (1.7-2.3) for ages 70-79, and 2.0 (1.6-2.6) for ages >80. CONCLUSIONS: Rib fracture, the second most common clinical fracture in women (after wrist fracture), predicted future fractures of the rib, wrist, and spine at all ages. Women presenting with rib fractures should be evaluated for appropriate management to prevent future fractures.

Wrist fracture as a predictor of future fractures in younger versus older postmenopausal women: results from the National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA).

UNLABELLED: The short-term association between wrist-fracture history and future fracture has not been simultaneously compared between younger and older postmenopausal women. This 3-year follow-up study of 158,940 women showed a similar future fracture risk in younger and older women with wrist-fracture history. INTRODUCTION: We examined the association between prior wrist fracture and future osteoporosis-related fractures within 3 years in younger and older postmenopausal women. METHODS: In the National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA) study, 158,940 postmenopausal women, aged 50-98 (median 63) years, provided information on fracture history since age 45, and responded to follow-up surveys 1 or 3 years later when new fractures were queried. Cox regression models were used to obtain relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) estimates. RESULTS: Of the 158,940 participants, 8,665 reported a history of wrist fracture at baseline; 4,316 women reported at least one new fracture within three years. The RR for any subsequent clinical fracture, adjusted for covariates and baseline BMD T-score, was 2.4 (2.0, 2.9) for younger and 2.1 (1.9, 2.3) for older women. A prior wrist fracture increased the risk of a future wrist fracture about 3-fold and doubled the risk of any osteoporotic fracture. CONCLUSIONS: Prior wrist fracture strongly predicts three-year risk of any future osteoporotic fracture for older and younger postmenopausal women, independent of baseline BMD and common osteoporosis risk factors. More consideration should be given to evaluating and managing osteoporosis in younger and older women with a history of wrist fracture, independent of their BMD.

An approach for identifying postmenopausal women age 50-64 years at increased short-term risk for osteoporotic fracture.

UNLABELLED: Using data from NORA, we used 18 potential risk factors in a classification and regression tree analysis to build two algorithms. These algorithms correctly identified postmenopausal women between the ages of 50 and 64 years who were at the highest risk of osteoporotic fracture within 36 months. INTRODUCTION: The objective was to develop algorithms that best predict short-term fracture risk (3 years) in postmenopausal women 50-64 years old. METHODS: Data were from 91,652 women who responded to follow-up surveys as part of National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA) study. Peripheral bone mineral density (BMD) and risk factors obtained at baseline; incident osteoporotic fractures obtained from follow-up surveys. Eighteen risk factors were entered into a classification and regression tree analysis to build two algorithms, one with and one without BMD. RESULTS: Two thousand and seven (2.2%) women reported new osteoporotic fractures. Prior fracture, a peripheral BMD T-score