The Growing Demand for Hospice and Palliative Medicine Physicians: Will the Supply Keep Up?

CONTEXT: The need for hospice and palliative care is growing rapidly as the population increases and ages and as both hospice and palliative care become more accepted. Hospice and palliative medicine (HPM) is a relatively new physician specialty, currently training 325 new fellows annually. Given the time needed to increase the supply of specialty-trained physicians, it is important to assess future needs to guide planning for future training capacity. OBJECTIVES: We modeled the need for and supply of specialist HPM physicians through the year 2040 to determine whether training capacity should continue growing. METHODS: To create a benchmark for need, we used a population-based approach to look at the current geographic distribution of the HPM physician supply. To model future supply, we calculated the annual change in current supply by adding newly trained physicians and subtracting physicians leaving the labor force. RESULTS: The current U.S. supply of HPM specialists is 13.35 per 100,000 adults 65 and older. This ratio varies greatly across the country. Using alternate assumptions for future supply and demand, we project that need in 2040 will range from 10,640 to almost 24,000 HPM specialist physicians. Supply will range from 8100 to 19,000. CONCLUSION: Current training capacity is insufficient to keep up with population growth and demand for services. HPM fellowships would need to grow from the current 325 graduates annually to between 500 and 600 per year by 2030 to assure sufficient physician workforce for hospice and palliative care services given current service provision patterns.

Is the Physician Shortage Real? Implications for the Recommendations of the Institute of Medicine Committee on the Governance and Financing of Graduate Medical Education.

In July 2014, the Institute of Medicine (IOM) Committee on the Governance and Financing of Graduate Medical Education released its report calling for a major overhaul of the financing of graduate medical education (GME). Several national organizations with an interest in GME faulted the report on the basis that the IOM Committee recommendations would worsen physician shortages. However, this conclusion is based on two questionable assumptions: first, that the nation is already facing a general physician shortage; and second, that the IOM Committee recommendations would make shortages worse. The author argues that although some communities and specialties do face shortages, currently and in the future a general national physician shortage is unlikely. Reasons cited include changes in the delivery system with an increased focus on efficiency and effectiveness; the increased use of interprofessional teams facilitated by the increasing supply of nurse practitioners, physician assistants and other health professionals; and technological advances.The author concludes that the IOM Committee recommendations would support an increase in GME positions in locations and specialties where there is a documented need, in effect removing the current cap on Medicare-funded GME positions. Given the current fiscal environment, the approach recommended by the IOM Committee--steady funding levels but improved targeting to meet documented needs--may be the best strategy for maintaining GME funds and meeting the nation's physician workforce needs.

The changing professional practice of physician assistants: 1992 to 2000.

BACKGROUND: Substantial changes in professional practice for physician assistants (PAs) occurred between 1992 and 2000. This paper describes a new professional practice index for the PA profession for 2000 that reflects current practice environments more accurately than did an index developed to reflect practice environments in 1992. In addition, the paper examines the relationships among the profession, its professional environment, and physicians, as well as the relationship between the PA profession and access to care for underserved populations. RESULTS: Comparisons of the 1992 professional practice index for the PA profession and indices for 2000 indicate that, collectively, the scope of practice of PAs increased significantly across the United States over the 8-year period. Variation of the index scores narrowed over the same period, suggesting that the 1990s were a period of convergence of professional practice across the 50 states. During this period the numbers of practicing PAs nearly doubled between 1992 and 2000, and in 2000 there were 5.8 practicing PAs per 100 physicians in active patient care in the United States. The professional practice index for the profession is positively correlated with the numbers of PAs per capita across the 50 states for both 1992 and 2000. CONCLUSION: Enabling legislation for PAs has been enacted in all 50 states and the District of Columbia over a 3-decade period. A period of consolidation and convergence of statutes and policies over the 1990s suggests that American medicine has endorsed the role of PAs. In spite of these findings, almost one third of states continue to have limited or restricted statutes for PA practice, mostly in the area of reimbursement.

Trends in the physician workforce, 1980-2000.

Over the past twenty-five years the nation has struggled with a series of physician workforce issues: determining the appropriate number of physicians needed and the appropriate number to produce; the role of international medical school graduates; the mix of primary care and non-primary care physicians; efforts to increase the number of underrepresented minorities in medicine and the supply of physicians in rural areas; and the impact of the growing number of female physicians. This paper documents physician workforce trends over the past twenty years, especially as they relate to these issues.

How trends shape the work force today and tomorrow.

What forces are propelling the healthcare industry's prolonged period of change? How are these forces shaping the future of HIM? In this article, investigators from the Center for Health Workforce Studies examine the roots of the work force shortage and reveal trends that will continue to influence the industry.