Investigating the role of binding free energy, binding affinity and antibody escape in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.

SARS-CoV-2 is considered a pandemic virus and presents a major strain on public health globally. SARS-CoV-2 infects mammalian cells by binding to its receptor, ACE2 which is mediated by the viral spike glycoprotein, specifically the receptor binding domain (RBD) within the spike protein. Recent development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein are currently the best strategy to reduce morbidity and mortality from infection. Like all viruses, SARS-CoV-2 evolves which may result in mutations which are benign or alter its viral fitness. The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 may increase the virulence, possibly by increasing the infectivity of the virus through strengthening the binding of the RBD to ACE2 or enabling the virus to evade naturally or vaccine induced immune responses. To address the need to characterise the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, this study has compared SARS-CoV2 sequences globally to the Wuhan reference strain at different time points. Additionally, by assigning scores to sequence data, which quantify each sequences binding strength to ACE2 and ability to evade patient derived antibodies, we have demonstrated that over time SARS-CoV-2 has evolved in less than one year to increase its ability to evade antibodies and increase the binding free energy between the RBD and ACE2.

The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant is associated with increased clinical severity of disease

ObjectivesThe SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased transmission relative to other variants present at the time of its emergence and several studies have shown an association between Alpha variant infection and increased hospitalisation and 28-day mortality. However, none have addressed the impact on maximum severity of illness in the general population classified by the level of respiratory support required, or death. We aimed to do this. MethodsIn this retrospective multi-centre clinical cohort sub-study of the COG-UK consortium, 1475 samples from Scottish hospitalised and community cases collected between 1st November 2020 and 30th January 2021 were sequenced. We matched sequence data to clinical outcomes as the variant became dominant in Scotland and modelled the association between Alpha variant infection and severe disease using a 4-point scale of maximum severity by 28 days: 1. no respiratory support, 2. supplemental oxygen, 3. ventilation and 4. death. ResultsOur cumulative generalised linear mixed model analyses found evidence (cumulative odds ratio: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.93) of a positive association between increased clinical severity and lineage (Alpha variant versus non-Alpha variant). ConclusionsThe Alpha variant was associated with more severe clinical disease in the Scottish population than co-circulating lineages.

Secreted SARS-CoV-2 ORF8 modulates the cytokine expression profile of human macrophages

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still adapting to its new human host. Attention has focussed on the viral spike protein, but substantial variation has been seen in the ORF8 gene. Here, we show that SARS-CoV-2 ORF8 protein undergoes signal peptide-mediated processing through the endoplasmic reticulum and is secreted as a glycosylated, disulphide-linked dimer. The secreted protein from the prototype SARS-CoV-2 virus had no major effect on viability of a variety of cell types, or on IFN or NF-{kappa}B signalling. However, it modulated cytokine expression from primary CSF1-derived human macrophages, most notably by decreasing IL-6 and IL-8 secretion. Furthermore, a sequence polymorphism L84S that appeared early in the pandemic associated with the Clade S lineage of virus, showed a markedly different effect, of increasing IL-6 production. We conclude that ORF8 sequence polymorphisms can potentially affect SARS-CoV-2 virulence and should therefore be monitored in sequencing-based surveillance.

Epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Scotland: a genomic perspective on the impact of the introduction and relaxation of lockdown on SARS-CoV-2

The second SARS virus, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in December 2019, and within a month was globally distributed. It was first introduced into Scotland in February 2020 associated with returning travellers and visitors. By March it was circulating in communities across the UK, and to control COVID-19 cases, and prevent overwhelming of the National Health Service (NHS), a lockdown was introduced on 23rd March 2020 with a restriction of peoples movements. To augment the public health efforts a large-scale genome epidemiology effort (as part of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium) resulted in the sequencing of over 5000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes by 18th August 2020 from Scottish cases, about a quarter of the estimated number of cases at that time. Here we quantify the geographical origins of the first wave introductions into Scotland from abroad and other UK regions, the spread of these SARS-CoV-2 lineages to different regions within Scotland (defined at the level of NHS Health Board) and the effect of lockdown on virus success. We estimate that approximately 300 introductions seeded lineages in Scotland, with around 25% of these lineages composed of more than five viruses, but by June circulating lineages were reduced to low levels, in line with low numbers of recorded positive cases. Lockdown was, thus, associated with a dramatic reduction in infection numbers and the extinguishing of most virus lineages. Unfortunately since the summer cases have been rising in Scotland in a second wave, with >1000 people testing positive on a daily basis, and hospitalisation of COVID-19 cases on the rise again. Examining the available Scottish genome data from the second wave, and comparing it to the first wave, we find that while some UK lineages have persisted through the summer, the majority of lineages responsible for the second wave are new introductions from outside of Scotland and many from outside of the UK. This indicates that, while lockdown in Scotland is directly linked with the first wave case numbers being brought under control, travel-associated imports (mostly from Europe or other parts of the UK) following the easing of lockdown are responsible for seeding the current epidemic population. This demonstrates that the impact of stringent public health measures can be compromised if following this, movements from regions of high to low prevalence are not minimised.

The circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike variant N439K maintains fitness while evading antibody-mediated immunity

SARS-CoV-2 can mutate to evade immunity, with consequences for the efficacy of emerging vaccines and antibody therapeutics. Herein we demonstrate that the immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) receptor binding motif (RBM) is the most divergent region of S, and provide epidemiological, clinical, and molecular characterization of a prevalent RBM variant, N439K. We demonstrate that N439K S protein has enhanced binding affinity to the hACE2 receptor, and that N439K virus has similar clinical outcomes and in vitro replication fitness as compared to wild- type. We observed that the N439K mutation resulted in immune escape from a panel of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, including one in clinical trials, as well as from polyclonal sera from a sizeable fraction of persons recovered from infection. Immune evasion mutations that maintain virulence and fitness such as N439K can emerge within SARS-CoV-2 S, highlighting the need for ongoing molecular surveillance to guide development and usage of vaccines and therapeutics.