Impact of Social Determinants of Health on Predictive Models for Outcomes After Congenital Heart Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Despite documented associations between social determinants of health and outcomes post-congenital heart surgery, clinical risk models typically exclude these factors. OBJECTIVES: The study sought to characterize associations between social determinants and operative and longitudinal mortality as well as assess impacts on risk model performance. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data were obtained for all congenital heart surgeries (2006-2021) from locally held Congenital Heart Surgery Collaborative for Longitudinal Outcomes and Utilization of Resources Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database data. Neighborhood-level American Community Survey and composite sociodemographic measures were linked by zip code. Model prediction, discrimination, and impact on quality assessment were assessed before and after inclusion of social determinants in models based on the 2020 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model. RESULTS: Of 14,173 total index operations across New York State, 12,321 cases, representing 10,271 patients at 8 centers, had zip codes for linkage. A total of 327 (2.7%) patients died in the hospital or before 30 days, and 314 children died by December 31, 2021 (total n = 641; 6.2%). Multiple measures of social determinants of health explained as much or more variability in operative and longitudinal mortality than clinical comorbidities or prior cardiac surgery. Inclusion of social determinants minimally improved models' predictive performance (operative: 0.834-0.844; longitudinal 0.808-0.811), but significantly improved model discrimination; 10.0% more survivors and 4.8% more mortalities were appropriately risk classified with inclusion. Wide variation in reclassification was observed by site, resulting in changes in the center performance classification category for 2 of 8 centers. CONCLUSIONS: Although indiscriminate inclusion of social determinants in clinical risk modeling can conceal inequities, thoughtful consideration can help centers understand their performance across populations and guide efforts to improve health equity.

Early Life Stress Exacerbates Outcome after Traumatic Brain Injury.

The neurocognitive impairments associated with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) often resolve within 1-2 weeks; however, a subset of people exhibit persistent cognitive dysfunction for weeks to months after injury. The factors that contribute to these persistent deficits are unknown. One potential risk factor for worsened outcome after TBI is a history of stress experienced by a person early in life. Early life stress (ELS) includes maltreatment such as neglect, and interferes with the normal construction of cortical and hippocampal circuits. We hypothesized that a history of ELS contributes to persistent learning and memory dysfunction following a TBI. To explore this interaction, we modeled ELS by separating Sprague Dawley pups from their nursing mothers from post-natal days 2-14 for 3 h daily. At 2 months of age, male rats received sham surgery or mild to moderate parasagittal fluid-percussion brain injury. We found that the combination of ELS with TBI in adulthood impaired hippocampal-dependent learning, as assessed with contextual fear conditioning, the water maze task, and spatial working memory. Cortical atrophy was significantly exacerbated in TBI animals exposed to ELS compared with normal-reared TBI animals. Changes in corticosterone in response to restraint stress were prolonged in TBI animals that received ELS compared with TBI animals that were normally reared or sham animals that received ELS. Our findings indicate that ELS is a risk factor for worsened outcome after TBI, and results in persistent learning and memory deficits, worsened cortical pathology, and an exacerbation of the hormonal stress response.