RESUMO
2020 presented the ideal conditions for studying the air quality response to several emission reductions due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Numerous studies found that the tropospheric ozone increased even in lockdown conditions, but its reasons are not entirely understood. This research aims to better understand the ozone variations in Northern South America. Satellite and reanalysis data were used to analyze regional ozone variations. An analysis of two of the most polluted Colombian cities was performed by quantifying the changes of ozone and its precursors and by doing a machine learning decomposition to disentangle the contributions that precursors and meteorology made to form O3. The results indicated that regional ozone increased in most areas, especially where wildfires are present. Meteorology is associated with favorable conditions to promote wildfires in Colombia and Venezuela. Regarding the local analysis, the machine learning ensemble shows that the decreased titration process associated with the NO plummeting owing to mobility reduction is the main contributor to the O3 increase (≈50%). These tools lead to conclude that (i) the increase in O3 produced by the reduction of the titration process that would be associated with an improvement in mobile sources technology has to be considered in the new air quality policies, (ii) a boost in international cooperation is essential to control wildfires since an event that occurs in one country can affect others and (iii) a machine learning decomposition approach coupled with sensitivity experiments can help us explain and understand the physicochemical mechanism that drives ozone formation. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11869-023-01303-6.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To compare estimates of spatiotemporal variations of surface PM2.5 concentrations in Colombia from 2014 to 2019 derived from two global air quality models, as well as to quantify the avoidable deaths attributable to the long-term exposure to concentrations above the current and projected Colombian standard for PM2.5 annual mean at municipality level. METHODS: We retrieved PM2.5 concentrations at the surface level from the ACAG and CAMSRA global air quality models for all 1,122 municipalities, and compare 28 of them with available concentrations from monitor stations. Annual mortality data 2014-2019 by municipality of residence and pooled effect measures for total, natural and specific causes of mortality were used to calculate the number of annual avoidable deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) related to the excess of PM2.5 concentration over the current mean annual national standard of 25 µg/m3 and projected standard of 15 µg/m3. RESULTS: Compared to surface data from 28 municipalities with monitoring stations in 2019, ACAG and CAMSRA models under or overestimated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations. Estimations from ACAG model had a mean bias 1,7 µg/m3 compared to a mean bias of 4,7 µg/m3 from CAMSRA model. Using ACAG model, estimations of total nationally attributable deaths to PM2.5 exposure over 25 and 15 µg/m3 were 142 and 34,341, respectively. Cardiopulmonary diseases accounted for most of the attributable deaths due to PM2.5 excess of exposure (38%). Estimates of YPLL due to all-cause mortality for exceeding the national standard of 25 µg/m3 were 2,381 years. CONCLUSION: Comparison of two global air quality models for estimating surface PM2.5 concentrations during 2014-2019 at municipality scale in Colombia showed important differences. Avoidable deaths estimations represent the total number of deaths that could be avoided if the current and projected national standard for PM2.5 annual mean have been met, and show the health-benefit of the implementation of more restrictive air quality standards.
