A prospective study of the Acquired Preparedness Model: the effects of impulsivity and expectancies on smoking initiation in college students.

This study reports on a prospective test of the Acquired Preparedness Model, which posits that impulsivity influences cigarette smoking through the formation of more positive and fewer negative expectancies about smoking effects. College freshman never-smokers (n = 400; 45% male) completed a baseline interview and quarterly online follow-up assessments for 15 months after baseline. Structural equation modeling indicated that the effects of the impulsivity components of sensation seeking and negative urgency on risk of smoking initiation were mediated by expectancies for positive and negative reinforcement from smoking, respectively. Expectancies about negative consequences from smoking predicted initiation but did not mediate the effects of sensation seeking or negative urgency. Findings are consistent with the Acquired Preparedness Model and suggest that heightened impulsivity is associated with heightened expectancies for reinforcement from smoking, and thus with greater risk for smoking initiation.

Mediating influences of negative affect and risk perception on the relationship between sensation seeking and adolescent cigarette smoking.

INTRODUCTION: A substantial number of adolescents are current and regular cigarette smokers, and there is a need to better understand factors that contribute to smoking behavior during these years. Sensation seeking (SS) is one factor that has consistently been associated with smoking, but less is known about mechanisms that may explain this relationship. METHODS: The present study tested the hypothesis that high school students high in SS would report heavier cigarette smoking and that this relationship would be mediated by negative affect and by perceptions about the risks of smoking. Students (n = 1,688) participated in an annual survey of substance use and related attitudes and characteristics. RESULTS: As expected, higher SS was associated with greater levels of past 30-day (odds ratio [OR] = 1.46, p = .004) and lifetime (OR = 1.37, p = .004) smoking, particularly for males. Multiple mediation models indicated that effect of SS on both 30-day (combined indirect effect z = 5.38, p < .001) and lifetime (z = 6.14, p < .001) smoking was mediated by both negative affect and risk perception. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest a need for increasing the sensation value of anti-tobacco messages to increase their efficacy for high SS youth. High SS youth may also benefit from prevention efforts designed to teach healthy ways of coping with negative affect.