A simple satisficing model.

Economic theory is built on the assumption that people are omniscient utility maximizers. In reality, this is unlikely to be true and often people lack information about all alternatives that are available to them; either because the information is unavailable or that the cost of searching for and evaluating that information is high. In this paper, we develop a simple and tractable model that captures satisficing behavior. We show that the model can retrieve consistent parameters under a large range of experimental conditions. We test our model on synthetic data and present an empirical application. We discuss the implications of our results for the use of satisficing choice models in explaining choice.

Heterogeneity of values for coastal flood risk management with nature-based solutions.

The purpose of this study was to understand preferences for different coastal flood protection measures and the factors that influence such preferences, to inform management and policy. The Discrete Choice Experiment applied to Wales residents revealed that there is willingness-to-pay for coastal flood protection, especially through Nature-based Solutions (NbS) including expanding saltmarsh area and increasing saltmarsh with high vegetation. The preference for NbS provides evidence for including specific coastal area targets in financial schemes initially aimed at other benefits from natural habitats, such as habitat creation for biodiversity. This joint action will maximise the benefits from NbS and ensure integrated and concerted efforts across, often disjointed, sectors. There were also high levels of heterogeneity for preferences in different groups of people. For instance, results support that direct flood experience and damage severity can give rise to behavioural intentions that support mitigation and adaptation measures. Findings also highlight how crucial environmental education and direct contact with the object of study are for securing support and buy-in for flood protection measures. This work is original in that it considers the different types of management for a habitat as NbS and the heterogeneity of preferences within a population. Results are significant in providing a basis for future NbS developments and in supporting flood risk policy and management.

Stakeholder perceptions towards sustainable shrimp aquaculture in Vietnam.

Aquaculture is the fastest growing food production industry globally and is considered to have the greatest potential to meet the growing demand for seafood and being a solution to overfishing. Despite the benefits of aquaculture, the rapid growth and intensification of production (so-called conventional aquaculture) has raised concerns about food safety, fish welfare, and environmental and social issues stemming from a tragedy of the commons. These concerns need to be addressed to enable sustainable aquaculture development. While the negative environmental impacts of aquaculture have been evaluated using physical and chemical indicators, the social acceptance has not been fully considered when evaluating aquaculture sustainability. With this backdrop, our study investigates knowledge and beliefs towards shrimp aquaculture development among two key stakeholder groups in Vietnam: the public and producers (shrimp farmers). Our results show that stakeholders were concerned about the social and environmental impacts of conventional shrimp aquaculture, although the different stakeholder groups emphasized different aspects. The public believed biodiversity loss and the overuse of antibiotics and pesticides to be more problematic compared to producers, who believed water quality and disease outbreaks were the main problems facing the industry. Following on from this, most respondents perceived sustainable aquaculture production positively, implying social acceptability for its development. Awareness of and knowledge about sustainable aquaculture positively and significantly affected stakeholders' support for expansion, suggesting that communication and education may be effective tools for improving social acceptance of aquaculture.

Diabolical dilemmas of COVID-19: An empirical study into Dutch society's trade-offs between health impacts and other effects of the lockdown.

We report and interpret preferences of a sample of the Dutch adult population for different strategies to end the so-called 'intelligent lockdown' which their government had put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a discrete choice experiment, we invited participants to make a series of choices between policy scenarios aimed at relaxing the lockdown, which were specified not in terms of their nature (e.g. whether or not to allow schools to re-open) but in terms of their effects along seven dimensions. These included health-related effects, but also impacts on the economy, education, and personal income. From the observed choices, we were able to infer the implicit trade-offs made by the Dutch between these policy effects. For example, we find that the average citizen, in order to avoid one fatality directly or indirectly related to COVID-19, is willing to accept a lasting lag in the educational performance of 18 children, or a lasting (>3 years) and substantial (>15%) reduction in net income of 77 households. We explore heterogeneity across individuals in terms of these trade-offs by means of latent class analysis. Our results suggest that most citizens are willing to trade-off health-related and other effects of the lockdown, implying a consequentialist ethical perspective. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that the elderly, known to be at relatively high risk of being affected by the virus, are relatively reluctant to sacrifice economic pain and educational disadvantages for the younger generation, to avoid fatalities. We also identify a so-called taboo trade-off aversion amongst a substantial share of our sample, being an aversion to accept morally problematic policies that simultaneously imply higher fatality numbers and lower taxes. We explain various ways in which our results can be of value to policy makers in the context of the COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Willingness to pay to protect cold water corals.

There is increasing pressure to use currently untapped resources in the deep sea, raising questions regarding ecosystem service trade-offs in these often unknown areas. We assessed the trade-offs between protection of cold-water coral reefs and economic activities, such as fisheries and petroleum extraction, through a survey of a representative sample of the populations of Norway and Ireland. Choice-experiment surveys were conducted in workshop settings and through the internet. Both survey approaches provided some similar results, such as preferences for protection. Our cross-country comparison showed the general public in Norway and Ireland was willing, despite possible conflict with extractive and consumptive economic activities in the deep sea, to protect cold-water corals as habitat for fish. On average, people were willing to pay NKr 341 and NKr 424 for a small and large increase in protected areas respectively, and NKr 880 if the area is important habitat for fish, all else held equal. However, there was large variation across individuals and countries. Norwegian respondents valued pure existence of cold-water corals more than the Irish respondents, and the latter were less willing to trade off industrial activities than the former. Nonetheless, the findings support conservation of cold-water corals and more generally of ocean environments that provide habitat for fish, which the current deep sea governance systems are not adequately designed or sufficiently well-structured to secure.

RESUMEN: Existe una creciente presión por el uso correcto de recursos NO EXPLOTADOS en los mares profundos, lo que genera preguntas con respecto a las compensaciones de los servicios ambientales en los ecosistemas de estas áreas comúnmente desconocidas. Evaluamos las compensaciones entre la protección de los arrecifes de coral de aguas frías y las actividades económicas, como las pesquerías y la extracción de petróleo, por medio de un censo de muestras representativas de las poblaciones de Noruega e Irlanda. Las encuestas de experimento de elección se realizaron dentro de talleres y por medio del internet. Ambas estrategias de encuesta proporcionaron algunos resultados similares, como la preferencia por la protección. Nuestra comparación entre países mostró que el público en general en Noruega y en Irlanda estaba dispuesto, a pesar del posible conflicto con las actividades económicas de extracción y de consumo en el mar profundo, a proteger los corales de aguas frías como hábitat para peces. En promedio, las personas estuvieron dispuestas a pagar 341 coronas noruegas (NKr) y NKr 424 por un incremento menor y mayor respectivamente de las áreas protegidas y NKr 880 si el área es un hábitat importante para los peces, todo lo demás se mantuvo igual. Sin embargo, hubo una gran variación entre individuos y países. Los respondientes noruegos valoraron la pura existencia de los corales de aguas frías más que los respondientes irlandeses, y estos últimos tuvieron menos disposición que los primeros para compensar las actividades industriales. Sin embargo, nuestros resultados respaldan la conservación de los corales de aguas frías y, con mayor generalidad, de los ambientes oceánicos que proporcionan un hábitat para los peces, para lo cual los sistemas de la actual gobernanza del mar profundo no están diseñados adecuadamente o estructurados suficientemente para asegurar esto.