Modelling the distribution of the vector Aedes aegypti in a central Argentine city.

Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) is an urban mosquito involved in the transmission of numerous viruses, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In Argentina, Ae. aegypti is the main vector of dengue virus and has been involved in several outbreaks in regions ranging from northern to central Argentina since 2009. In order to evaluate areas of potential vector-borne disease transmission in the city of Córdoba, Argentina, the present study aimed to identify the environmental, socioeconomic and demographic factors driving the distribution of Ae. aegypti larvae through spatial analysis in the form of species distribution models (SDMs). These models elucidate relationships between known occurrences of a species and environmental data in order to identify areas with suitable habitats for that species and the consequent risk for disease transmission. The maximum entropy species distribution model was able to fit the training data well, with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of > 0.8, and produced models with fair extrapolation capacity (average test AUC: > 0.75). Human population density, distance to vegetation and water channels were the main variables predictive of the vector suitability of an area. The results of this work will be used to target surveillance and prevention measures, as well as in mosquito management.

Evaluation of species distribution model algorithms for fine-scale container-breeding mosquito risk prediction.

The present work evaluates the use of species distribution model (SDM) algorithms to classify high densities of small container-breeding Aedes mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) on a fine scale in the Bermuda Islands. Weekly ovitrap data collected by the Department of Health, Bermuda for the years 2006 and 2007 were used for the models. The models evaluated included the algorithms Bioclim, Domain, GARP (genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction), logistic regression and MaxEnt (maximum entropy). Models were evaluated according to performance and robustness. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate each model's performance, and robustness was assessed according to the spatial correlation between classification risks for the two datasets. Relative to the other algorithms, logistic regression was the best and MaxEnt the second best model for classifying high-risk areas. We describe the importance of covariables for these two models and discuss the utility of SDMs in vector control efforts and the potential for the development of scripts that automate the task of creating risk assessment maps.