Investigations into a trigger-based approach for initiating emergency vaccination to augment stamping out of foot-and-mouth disease in New Zealand: a simulation study.

AIMS: To investigate an adaptive management approach to the deployment of emergency vaccination as an additional measure to stamping out (SO) during simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in New Zealand. METHODS: A simulation modelling (n=6000 simulations) approach was used. The study population comprised all known farms in New Zealand with FMD-susceptible livestock. Each simulation started with infection seeded into a single randomly selected farm. Each outbreak was randomly assigned to one of four control strategies, comprising SO only; trigger-based vaccination (TRV) where SO was augmented with vaccination if an early decision indicator trigger operating between Days 11-35 of the response indicated a large outbreak was developing; SO plus vaccination started randomly on Days 11-35 of the response (VACr); and SO plus vaccination with a fixed start on Day 21 of the response (VACf). Other parameters, such as the number of personnel available were also varied randomly. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used to evaluate variables associated with the number of infected premises (IP) and epidemic duration. RESULTS: The mean number of IP was 29 (median 9, min 1, max 757), while epidemics lasted on average 26.9 (median 18, min 1, max 220) days. These excluded 303 extreme outbreaks larger than the UK 2001 FMD epidemic (2,030 cases). Univariable analysis of the pooled vaccination results vs. SO, showed that vaccination significantly reduced the number of IP (p<0.001) and outbreak duration (p<0.001). GAM of large outbreaks revealed that only the TRV strategy was significantly protective compared to SO alone, reducing the odds of a large outbreak by 22% (OR=0.78; 95% CI=0.63-0.96). The number of veterinarians was non-linearly associated with large outbreaks, with low numbers increasing the odds of a large outbreak, but above 200 veterinarians, the odds reduced. Time to first detection was also non-linearly associated with large outbreaks, with detections <13 days protective and longer detection times increasing the odds of a large outbreak. GAM of long outbreaks showed similar findings, except that all three vaccination strategies significantly reduced duration. Overall, the TRV strategy resulted in the smallest and shortest epidemics. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: An adaptive management approach that deployed vaccination in response to a trigger when a large outbreak was developing outperformed SO and reduced the odds of large or long outbreaks more than the other two vaccination strategies, although the differences between the three vaccination strategies were statistically small. This study provides highly relevant insights into the dynamics of disease establishment and spread that will guide New Zealand's readiness for responding to highly infectious disease incursions such as FMD.

Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease: a country comparison study.

Vaccination is increasingly being recognised as a potential tool to supplement 'stamping out' for controlling foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in non-endemic countries. Infectious disease simulation models provide the opportunity to determine how vaccination might be used in the face of an FMD outbreak. Previously, consistent relative benefits of specific vaccination strategies across different FMD simulation modelling platforms have been demonstrated, using a UK FMD outbreak scenario. We extended this work to assess the relative effectiveness of selected vaccination strategies in five countries: Australia, New Zealand, the USA, the UK and Canada. A comparable, but not identical, FMD outbreak scenario was developed for each country with initial seeding of Pan Asia type O FMD virus into an area with a relatively high density of livestock farms. A series of vaccination strategies (in addition to stamping out (SO)) were selected to evaluate key areas of interest from a disease response perspective, including timing of vaccination, species considerations (e.g. vaccination of only those farms with cattle), risk area vaccination and resources available for vaccination. The study found that vaccination used with SO was effective in reducing epidemic size and duration in a severe outbreak situation. Early vaccination and unconstrained resources for vaccination consistently outperformed other strategies. Vaccination of only those farms with cattle produced comparable results, with some countries demonstrating that this could be as effective as all species vaccination. Restriction of vaccination to higher risk areas was less effective than other strategies. This study demonstrates consistency in the relative effectiveness of selected vaccination strategies under different outbreak start up conditions conditional on the assumption that each of the simulation models provide a realistic estimation of FMD virus spread. Preferred outbreak management approaches must however balance the principles identified in this study, working to clearly defined outbreak management objectives, while having a good understanding of logistic requirements and the socio-economic implications of different control measures.

The effect of month, farm type and latitude on the level of anaemia associated with Theileria orientalis Ikeda type infection in New Zealand cattle naturally infected at pasture.

Commencing in 2012, an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with Theileria orientalis Ikeda type has been present in New Zealand. The aims of this study were to analyse the temporal and spatial effects of T. orientalis Ikeda type infection on the sample submission rates and haematocrits of infected cattle over the first two years of the New Zealand epidemic. The data were collected from 30/08/2012 to 28/11/2014 and included all samples that met the case definition for Theileria associated bovine anaemia (TABA) and tested positive for T. orientalis Ikeda type by PCR. The sample submission rates by month and farm type were highly seasonal with dairy farm submissions peaking in September a month before beef farm submissions peaked. A second lesser peak of dairy farm submissions in April was absent for beef farms. A mixed effects model was fitted to the data and showed a significant interaction between farm production type (dairy or beef) and month of sampling (p=0.006) and between latitude and month of sampling (p=0.024). The estimated haematocrit, adjusted for month and latitude, for dairy cattle=0.125 (95%CI 0.121-0.129) and for beef cattle=0.151 (95% CI 0.138-0.165), p<0.0001. This research shows that infected beef animals tend to be less severely affected than dairy animals and that the month of sampling and latitude of the sampled farm have significant and interacting effects on the level of anaemia associated with T. orientalis Ikeda type infection.

Evaluating the benefits of vaccination when used in combination with stamping-out measures against hypothetical introductions of foot-and-mouth disease into New Zealand: a simulation study.

AIMS: To evaluate the benefits of vaccination against simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in New Zealand, when applied as an additional measure to stamping-out. METHODS: A simulation modelling approach was used. The study population comprised all known farms in New Zealand with FMD-susceptible livestock. Infection was seeded into three different areas of New Zealand. Transmission mechanisms included direct and indirect contacts, local spread and airborne spread. Efficacies of some of the stamping-out measures were varied. Vaccination strategies involved different start times, size and type of vaccination zone, and species vaccinated. Personnel resources for vaccination were varied as was the herd immunity profile following vaccination. Altogether, 336 models were specified, with 100 iterations conducted for each model. Generalised linear modelling and boosted regression trees were used to evaluate which variables had the biggest effect on the number of infected premises (IP), epidemic duration and area under control. RESULTS: Vaccination, when used as an adjunct to the standard stamping-out programme, significantly reduced the outbreak size. Vaccination reduced the median number of IP by 26 (95% CI=18-35), epidemic duration by 16 (95% CI=13-19) days and area under control by 474 (95% CI=250-699) km2 when there was no airborne spread; and when there was airborne spread the median reduction was 87 (95% CI=70-105) IP, 32 (95% CI=28-35) days and 898 (95% CI=665-1139) km2, respectively. Multivariable analyses showed that starting vaccination 11 days after first detection of FMD produced greater benefits than starting 16 or 21 days after detection. Increasing vaccination zones resulted in increased benefits. Boosted regression tree analyses showed that the most influential variables on the outcome measures were interval to first detection, incursion location, whether there was airborne spread or not and herd immunity profile. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study showed that there are benefits to the use of vaccination in combination with a stamping-out policy for control of FMD outbreaks under New Zealand conditions. The optimal vaccination strategy was identified as being a 3-5 km radius suppressive vaccination zone deployed between 11-16 days after first detection. Vaccination had a greater benefit during larger outbreaks, such as when there was airborne transmission. The key factors which were identified from this study will help inform New Zealand's competent authority on how best to deploy vaccination to further strengthen its approach to FMD eradication should New Zealand ever experience an outbreak.

Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease: a model comparison study.

Simulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with 'stamping-out' of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the 'stamping-out' strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.

Simulation modelling of a hypothetical introduction of foot-and-mouth disease into Alberta.

This study describes the use of simulation modelling to evaluate the predicted benefits of an effective livestock traceability system in responding to a hypothetical introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in to the province of Alberta, Canada, and whether or not the implementation of emergency ring vaccination in addition to a standard stamping-out (SO) strategy would lead to smaller and shorter epidemics. Three introduction scenarios were defined, with the primary case in either an intensive beef feedlot operation, an extensive cow-calf operation or in a swine operation. Disease spread was simulated using, three levels of tracing effectiveness, five types of vaccination zone, three different vaccination start times, three lengths of vaccination campaigns, two levels of culling resource and using FMD strains with two different virulence levels. Using standard SO procedures (without vaccination), improving traceability effectiveness from a level whereby only 65% of movements were traced within 5-7 days, to a capability whereby all movements were traced within 1 day, led to a reduction in the number of infected premises (IPs) between 18.7 and 64.5%, an average saving of CAN$29,000,000 in livestock compensation costs alone, and a reduction in the length of epidemics ranging from 1 to 22 days. The implementation of emergency vaccination also led to a reduction in the number of IPs and a shortening of epidemics. The effects were more pronounced when the higher virulence settings were used, with a predicted reduction in IPs of 16.6-68.7% (mean=48.6%) and epidemics shortened by up to 37 days. Multi-variable analyses showed these effects were highly significant, after accounting for the incursion location, virulence of virus and time of first detection. The results clearly demonstrated the benefits of having effective traceability systems with rapid query and reporting functionality. The results also supported the value of early vaccination as an adjunct to SO in reducing the number of IPs and shortening the length of the epidemics. The most effective vaccination strategy involved a 3 km or larger suppressive vaccination zone around all IPs, begun as soon as practicable after first detection, and which continued until the last IP was detected.

InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations.

We describe the spatially explicit, stochastic simulation model of disease spread, InterSpread Plus, in terms of its epidemiological framework, operation, and mode of use. The input data required by the model, the method for simulating contact and infection spread, and methods for simulating disease control measures are described. Data and parameters that are essential for disease simulation modelling using InterSpread Plus are distinguished from those that are non-essential, and it is suggested that a rational approach to simulating disease epidemics using this tool is to start with core data and parameters, adding additional layers of complexity if and when the specific requirements of the simulation exercise require it. We recommend that simulation models of disease are best developed as part of epidemic contingency planning so decision makers are familiar with model outputs and assumptions and are well-positioned to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions in times of crisis.

A sensitivity analysis of the New Zealand standard model of foot and mouth disease.

Disease simulation models can be a valuable tool for planning a response to exotic disease incursions, as they provide a fast, low-cost mechanism for identifying the likely outcomes of a range of outbreak scenarios and disease control strategies. To use these tools effectively and with confidence, decision-makers must understand the simplifications and framing assumptions that underlie a model's structure. Sensitivity analysis, the analytical process of identifying which input variables are the key drivers of the model's output, is a crucial process in developing this understanding. This paper describes the application of a sampling-based sensitivity analysis to the New Zealand standard model (NZSM). This model is a parameter set developed for the InterSpread Plus model platform to allow the exploration of different outbreak scenarios for an epidemic of foot and mouth disease in New Zealand. Based on 200 iterations of the NZSM, run for a simulation period of 60 days, settings related to farm-to-saleyard movements and the detection of disease during the active surveillance phase of the epidemic had the greatest influence on the predicted number of infected premises. A small number of counter-intuitive findings indicated areas of model design, implementation and/or parameterisation that should be investigated further. A potentially useful result from this work would be information to aid the grouping or elimination of non-influential model settings. This would go some way towards reducing the overall complexity of the NZSM, while still allowing it to remain fit for purpose.

Foot and mouth disease model verification and 'relative validation' through a formal model comparison.

Researchers from Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United States collaborated to validate their foot and mouth disease models--AusSpread, InterSpread Plus and the North American Animal Disease Spread Model--in an effort to build confidence in their use as decision-support tools. The final stage of this project involved using the three models to simulate a number of disease outbreak scenarios, with data from the Republic of Ireland. The scenarios included an uncontrolled epidemic, and epidemics managed by combinations of stamping out and vaccination. The predicted numbers of infected premises, the duration of each epidemic, and the size of predicted outbreak areas were compared. Relative within-model between-scenario changes resulting from different control strategies or resource constraints in different scenarios were quantified and compared. Although there were differences between the models in absolute outcomes, between-scenario comparisons within each model were similar. In all three models, early use of ring vaccination resulted in the largest drop in number of infected premises compared with the standard stamping-out regimen. This consistency implies that the assumptions made by each of the three modelling teams were appropriate, which in turn serves to increase end-user confidence in predictions made by these models.

Reanalysis of the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic to calculate airborne transmission probabilities.

The aims of this study were to statistically reassess the likelihood that windborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) occurred at the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 FMD epidemic at Oswestry, Shropshire, and to derive dose-response probability of infection curves for farms exposed to airborne FMDV. To enable this, data on all farms present in 1967 in the parishes near Oswestry were assembled. Cases were infected premises whose date of appearance of first clinical signs was within 14 days of the depopulation of the index farm. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between infection status and distance and direction from the index farm. The UK Met Office's NAME atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) was used to generate plumes for each day that FMDV was excreted from the index farm based on actual historical weather records from October 1967. Daily airborne FMDV exposure rates for all farms in the study area were calculated using a geographical information system. Probit analyses were used to calculate dose-response probability of infection curves to FMDV, using relative exposure rates on case and control farms. Both the logistic regression and probit analyses gave strong statistical support to the hypothesis that airborne spread occurred. There was some evidence that incubation period was inversely proportional to the exposure rate.

Simulation modelling as a tool for evaluating surveillance programmes for detection of the Asian honeybee mite ( Varroa destructor ) in the South Island of New Zealand.

AIM: To use a simulation model of the spread of the Asian honeybee mite (Varroa destructor) amongst apiaries, to evaluate a series of detection surveillance programmes for the South Island of New Zealand. METHODS: Five potential incursion sites into the South Island were selected. A stochastic spatial simulation model, Varroa_ sim, was adapted to simulate spread of the mite from these sites as a series of silent-phase propagating epidemics. The study population comprised all apiaries in the South Island registered in the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry's (MAF's) apiary database in 2003. Six different surveillance programmes were simulated to try and detect the mite. Three of these were the actual multi-stage sampling plans conducted during the autumn (March-May) of 2001, 2002 and 2003, and the other three involved simple random sampling with sampling fractions equivalent to the actual numbers of apiaries tested in each of those years. The relative performances of the different surveillance plans were evaluated in terms of their ability to detect the mite early before it had spread too far and whilst there might still be a chance of eradication. RESULTS: There were 13,798 registered apiaries in the South Island with valid map coordinates in the apiary database at the time of the study. The model generated 50 epidemics against which the various surveillance programmes were evaluated. The actual surveillance programmes conducted during the autumn of 2001 and 2002 generally performed fairly well in detecting the mite. The programme conducted in autumn 2003 detected the mite reasonably well in high-risk areas, but was very poor in low-risk areas. The simple random sampling strategies performed surprisingly well, and their relative rankings were proportional to the sampling fractions employed. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the value in using a spatial simulation model to generate plausible silent-phase epidemics, against which detection surveillance programmes could be evaluated, in ways that would otherwise not be possible.

Decision support systems for monitoring and maintaining health in food animal populations.

To mitigate the effects of risks to food safety and infectious disease outbreaks in farmed animals, animal health authorities need to have systems in place to identify and trace the source of identified problems in a timely manner. In the event of emergencies, these systems will allow infected or contaminated premises (and/or animals) to be identified and contained, and will allow the extent of problems to be communicated to consumers and trading partners in a clear and unambiguous manner. The key to achieving these goals is the presence of an effective animal health decision support system that will provide the facilities to record and store detailed information about cases and the population at risk, allowing information to be reported back to decision makers when it is required. Described here are the components of an animal health decision support system, and the ways these components can be used to enhance food safety, responses to infectious disease incursions, and animal health and productivity. Examples are provided to illustrate the benefit these systems can return, using data derived from countries that have such systems (or parts of systems) in place. Emphasis is placed on the features that make particular system components effective, and strategies to ensure that these are kept up to date.

A comparison of predictions made by three simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease.

AIMS: To describe results of a relative validation exercise using the three simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in use by the quadrilateral countries (QUADS; Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and United States of America; USA). METHODS: A hypothetical population of farms was constructed and, following the introduction of an FMD-like disease into a single farm, spread of disease was simulated using each of the three FMD simulation models used by the QUADS countries. A series of 11 scenarios was developed to systematically evaluate the key processes of disease transmission and control used by each of the three models. The predicted number of infected units and the size of predicted outbreak areas for each scenario and each model were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Agreement among the three models in terms of geographical areas predicted to become infected were quantified using Fleiss' Kappa statistic. RESULTS: Although there were statistically significant differences in model outputs in terms of the numbers of units predicted to become infected, the temporal onset of infection throughout the simulation period, and the spatial distribution of infected units, these differences were generally small and would have resulted in the same (or similar) management decisions being adopted in each case. CONCLUSIONS: Agreement among the three models in terms of the numbers of premises predicted to become infected, the temporal onset of infection throughout the simulation period, and the spatial distribution of infected premises provides evidence that each of the model developers are consistent in their approach to simulating the spread of disease throughout a population of susceptible individuals. This consistency implies that the assumptions taken by each development team are appropriate, which in turn serves to increase end-user confidence in model predictions. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Relative validation is one of a number of steps that can be undertaken to increase end-user confidence in predictions made by infectious disease models.

A survey to investigate movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand, with reference to the potential transmission of foot-and-mouth disease.

AIM: To quantify the numbers and extent of movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand, in order to construct more realistic simulation models to investigate how infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) might spread. METHODS: Farmers from 500 randomly selected farms, comprising 100 from each of the following sectors, viz beef, dairy, grazing/dairy heifer rearing, sheep, and mixed sheep and beef, were asked to fill in diaries in which they recorded the movements of all animals, products, people, vehicles and equipment coming on to or leaving their farms during two separate 3-week periods, representing relatively 'busy' and 'quiet' times of the year with respect to livestock movements. Where possible, the destination of each movement was identified and geo-coded, to allow the distance travelled to be calculated. Each movement was then classified according to the risk of transfer of FMD virus (FMDV), should the disease have been present on the study farm at the time of the movement. The data were then analysed to establish movement frequencies and distributions of distances travelled, by the different pastoral livestock sectors. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventeen farmers returned one or more diaries. One hundred and ninety-three farmers completed a Busy-period diary, recording a total of 12,052 movements off their farms, a crude average of 62.4 per 3-week period, or 2.97 per day. Of these, 4.0% involved the transport of livestock, equating to 0.12 livestock consignments per day. In contrast, 186 Quiet-period diaries were returned, recording a total of 10,885 movements off, representing a crude average of 58.5 during the 3-week period, or 2.78 per day. Of these, 2.1% involved livestock, equating to 0.06 livestock consignments per day. The mean and median distances travelled during the Busy periods were 30.9 km and 13.1 km, respectively (range 0-1,167 km). In comparison, the mean and median distances travelled during Quiet periods were 41.3 and 14 km, respectively (range 0.4-1,203 km). CONCLUSIONS: People, vehicles, livestock and other items can travel off pastoral livestock farms in New Zealand to other farms either directly or via saleyards over extensive distances. This has implications for the potential spread of infectious diseases such as FMD. Movement parameters intended for use in the InterSpread Plus inter-farm simulation model of FMD were established, which will facilitate the prediction of likely spread and efficacy of controls in the unlikely event of a real-life outbreak.

Decision-support tools for foot and mouth disease control.

Recent experience with foot and mouth disease (FMD) has shown that large and very costly epidemics can occur in countries considered extremely unlikely to experience the disease. The consequences of an introduction are much more severe than in the past and effective control is more difficult to achieve. Few countries have developed effective risk management strategies and information-based response systems to respond to these developments. The authors describe the tools which can be employed to minimise the impact of a disease incursion, using the example of FMD. To make such systems effective, the development of a national farms database in advance, including geo-referencing, is highly desirable. This greatly enhances the power of the decision-support tools, which can then be applied as soon as a serious disease incursion has been detected. These tools include procedures to detect infected farms promptly, to protect as yet uninfected farms against exposure to virus and to manage control policies. Epidemiological evaluation and prediction tools have advanced particularly rapidly and can guide the choice of control policies during an outbreak. Integrated decision-support systems offer the best method of managing FMD outbreaks to minimise the cost and size of the epidemics.

Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001.

A spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease was used in March and early April 2001 to evaluate alternative control policies for the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Control policies were those in operation from March 20, 2001, and comprised a ban on all animal movements from February 23, 2001, and a stamping-out policy. Each simulation commenced with the known population of infected farms on April 10, 2001, and ran for 200 days. For the control policy which best approximated that actually implemented from late March, the model predicted an epidemic of approximately 1800 to 1900 affected farms, and estimated that the epidemic would be eradicated between July and October 2001, with a low probability of continuing beyond October 2001. This policy included the slaughter-out of infected farms within 24 hours, slaughter of about 1.3 of the surrounding farms per infected farm within a further 48 hours, and minimal interfarm movements of susceptible animals. Delays in the slaughter of animals on infected farms beyond 24 hours after diagnosis slightly increased the epidemic size, and failure to achieve pre-emptive slaughter on an adequate number of at-risk farms substantially increased the expected size of the epidemic. Vaccination of up to three of the most outbreak-dense areas carried out in conjunction with the adopted control policy reduced the predicted size of the epidemic by less than 100 farms. Vaccination of buffer zones (designed to apply available vaccine and manpower as effectively as possible) carried out in place of the adopted control policy allowed the disease to spread out of control, producing an epidemic involving over 6000 farms by October 2001, with no prospect of immediate eradication.

Temporal aspects of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain: holding-associated risk factors for the disease.

The objectives of this study were first to describe the pattern of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain in terms of the temporal change in the proportion of all cattle holdings that had experienced at least one confirmed case of BSE to June 30, 1997, and secondly to identify risk factors that influenced the date of onset of a holding's first confirmed BSE case. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and the BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was the cattle holding and included all those recorded at least once on annual agricultural censuses conducted between June 30, 1986, and June 30, 1996. The outcome of interest was the date on which clinical signs were recorded in a holding's first confirmed case of BSE, termed the BSE onset date. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to describe the temporal pattern of the epidemic. The BSE epidemic in Great Britain started in November 1986, with the majority of affected holdings having their BSE onset date after February 1992. After adjusting for the effect of the size and type of holding, holdings in the south of England (specifically those in the Eastern, South east and South west regions) had 2.22 to 2.43 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 2.07 to 2.58) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings in Scotland. After adjusting for the effect of region and type of holding, holdings with more than 53 adult cattle had 5.91 (95 per cent CI 5.62 to 6.21) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings with seven to 21 adult cattle. Dairy holdings had 3.06 (95 per cent CI 2.96 to 3.16) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as beef suckler holdings. These analyses show that there were different rates of onset in different regions and in holdings of different sizes and types, that the epidemic was propagated most strongly in the south of the country, and that the growth of the epidemic followed essentially the same pattern in each region of the country, with modest temporal lags between them. The control measures imposed in 1988 and 1990 brought the expansion of the epidemic under control, although the rate of progress was slowed by those regions where the effectiveness of the control methods took some time to take full effect.

An epidemiological study of the spread of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus amongst previously non-exposed rabbit populations in the North Island of New Zealand.

AIM: To monitor the initial releases of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) into previously unexposed rabbit populations in the North Island of New Zealand. METHODS: The study programme consisted of pre-release spotlight counts of rabbits on the study farms, pre-release serological samples to check for prior exposure to RHDV, a farmer-completed questionnaire and post-release spotlight counts to measure any change in rabbit numbers following the release of RHDV. In total, 23 sites within the lower North Island where RHDV was released during the period November 1997 to June 1998, were monitored. The most common release method involved the spreading of chopped carrot bait laced with a solution of virus-infected material obtained from dead rabbits. RESULTS: Eighty percent of farmers thought that the disease had spread away from the release sites to areas where virus had not been liberated, although only 27% reported finding dead rabbits more than 300 m away from release locations. Seventy-three percent of farmers were satisfied with the overall effectiveness of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) as a means of reducing rabbit numbers, but 56% indicated they would modify the way they released the virus in the future. Average pre-release night spotlight counts per property ranged from 2.2 rabbits/km to 36.9 rabbits/km, the median being 12.8 rabbits/km. The time interval from initial release to when the first dead rabbit was seen which the farmer believed to have died from RHD varied from 3 to 21 days, the mean being 7.4 days and the median 7 days. The median change in night spotlight counts per site at 3 weeks after release, expressed as a percentage relative to pre-release counts, was -15.5% (range +18.9% to -76.9%) and at 6 weeks was -49.7% (range 0% to -76.9%). The time of the estimated peak of the disease epidemic ranged from 1 to 7 weeks after release of RHDV, the mean being 3.1 and the median 3 weeks. CONCLUSION: Rabbit haemorrhagic disease reduced rabbit numbers on the majority of farms where the virus was released, and appears to be an effective measure for controlling rabbit populations in New Zealand.

EpiMAN-FMD: a decision support system for managing epidemics of vesicular disease.

A comprehensive epidemiological information system (EpiMAN-FMD) has been developed to assist national disease control authorities contain and eradicate outbreaks of animal diseases as efficiently and cost-effectively as possible. The system was initially developed to control an incursion of foot and mouth disease (FMD) or any clinically indistinguishable vesicular disease, although it has since been progressively expanded to manage other exotic and endemic diseases. Design objectives for the information management elements of EpiMAN-FMD included the following: the need to manage the vast quantities of data that eradication procedures for an FMD epidemic would generate within a very short time the ability to innovatively apply epidemiological understanding of disease spread to the data processing tasks the reduction of some of the foreseen processing bottlenecks the provision of decision support tools for data entry personnel. Design objectives for the veterinary management elements of the system included the following: the presentation of up-to-date status reports in formats that facilitate decision-making at the national or regional level the ability to optimise manpower resource allocation the capacity to evaluate the relative merits of alternative technical decisions, each of which carry different implicit risks. The system combines a multi-user database management system, expert system elements, various computer simulation models of specific aspects of FMD epidemiology and a range of statistical analyses designed to monitor the state of the epidemic. Although designed in New Zealand, EpiMAN-FMD has been constructed in a flexible style which makes adoption of the system possible in other countries with broadly similar 'stamping-out' contingency plans.

A chondropathy of the pinna in rabbits associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease.

AIMS: To investigate the relationship between loss of parts of the pinna in rabbits and rabbit haemorrhagic disease (MD). METHODS: A case-control study design was employed. Rabbits with ear lesions were shot on farms in various locations in the South Island of New Zealand. For each case, an attempt was made to obtain a sex and size-matched control rabbit from the same farm on the same day. Serum samples were collected immediately after shooting. The serum samples were tested for RHD titres from 1:lO to 1:640. A selection of affected ears was examined histologically. Odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated to assess the relationship between ear loss and RHD antibody status at various serological cut-off levels. RESULTS: Affected ears were characterised by firm cartilaginous nodules and ridges, folding of the ear or loss of pinna to form a notch or complete loss of the outer pinna from about 052.0 cm above the intertragic notch. Histological changes in affected ears consisted mostly of focal mineralisation in the auricular cartilage, proliferation of cartilaginous tissue and loss of cartilage. The serological findings showed a significant association between rabbits with ear lesions and elevated RHD titres. CONCLUSION: The loss of the outer pinna in the rabbits under study was due to degenerative and hyperplastic changes in the auricular cartilage with distortion of the pinna, withering and loss of the outer pinna. The serological findings suggests that RHD is a likely factor in the development of the ear lesions.