Population Aging in India: A Micro-Level Estimate Using Gridded Population Data.

As population aging continues to become a major demographic trend globally, it is essential to examine the demographic shifts at the micro-level to understand the changing scenario of older populations. A lack of adequate data in India on older populations is a hindrance to the government's efforts to provide social security for them. This study uses gridded population data to analyze the spatial patterns, micro-level trends, and the share of older populations in India for 2030 and 2040. The study's findings demonstrate that India has seen a dramatic shift in population aging trends, with large intra-state variability. The micro-level analysis shows that certain districts have a higher percentage of older people. Further, the share of older populations is predicted to rise considerably over the next two decades. The results highlight the need to shift from national and state-level policies to a more localized approach. The findings provide a comprehensive analysis of population aging at the micro-level in India and highlight the need for targeted policies and programs to ensure the well-being of older populations. The results of this study can inform policymakers in their efforts to provide social security for older people and improve their quality of life.

Association between natural hazards and postnatal care among the neonates in India: a step towards full coverage using geospatial approach.

BACKGROUND: Postnatal care is crucial to prevent the child mortality. Despite the improvement in the PNC coverage for the neonates, it is still far away from the universal health coverage. Along with, some specific regions mostly are natural hazard prone areas of India show very under coverage of PNC for the neonates. Considering the substantial spatial variation of PNC coverage and natural hazard prevalence, present study aimed to examine spatial variation of PNC coverage and its association with natural hazard at the district level. METHODS: The cross-sectional exploratory study utilized National Family Health Survey, 2019-21, which included 1,76,843 children using multistage stratified sampling method to examine postnatal care within 42 days for neonates born within five years prior to the survey. Additionally, the study utilized Vulnerability Atlas of India,2019 maps to categorize regions into hazardous (flood, earthquake, and landslide) and non-hazardous areas. Spatial univariate and bivariate analyses, logistic and geographically weighted regressions were conducted using ArcGIS Pro, GeoDa, and Stata 16.0 software to identify associations between PNC coverage, hazard exposure, and spatial variation. RESULTS: The univariate spatial analysis showed some specific regions such as north, east, and north-east region of India had a high concentration of natural hazard and low access of PNC coverage. Bivariate analysis also showed that PNC coverage was low in flood (75.9%), earthquake (68.3%), and landslide (80.6%) effected areas. Compared to the national PNC coverage (81.1%), all these natural hazards effected areas showed low coverage. Further, logic regression showed that these hazard prone areas were less (OR:0.85 for flood, 0.77 for earthquake, and 0.77 for landslide) likely to get PNC coverage than their counterparts. LISA cluster maps significantly showed low PNC and high disaster concentration in these disaster-prone areas. Geographic weighted regression results also showed similar result. CONCLUSIONS: The present study elucidates notable heterogeneity in the coverage of postnatal care (PNC) services, with lower concentrations observed in disaster-prone areas. In order to enhance the accessibility and quality of PNC services in these areas, targeted interventions such as the deployment of mobile health services and fortification of health systems are recommended.

Complex dynamical study of a delayed prey-predator model with fear in prey and square root harvesting of both species.

In the current study, the dynamics of predator-prey systems under the influence of fear effect on the reproduction of prey population and harvesting on both species has been proposed. Assessing the dynamics of the system with the combined influence of fear and harvesting for various values of n is our central objective. We present comprehensive mathematical findings that cover fundamental dynamical features, the presence of positive equilibria, and the stability of all equilibria. Hopf-bifurcating periodic solutions have been demonstrated to emerge around the positive equilibrium point, and the direction of the Hopf-bifurcating limit cycle is determined using the first Lyapunov coefficient. Furthermore, in two-parameter space, we have seen that the system experiences the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. Moreover, we have included predator gestation delay and noticed some chaotic dynamics in the system. In addition, we run through numerical simulations to numerically validate our mathematical findings. The article is concluded with a conclusion at the end.