GWASs and polygenic scores inherit all the old problems of heritability estimates.

Polygenic score (PGS) computations assume an additive model of gene action because associations between phenotypes and alleles at different loci are compounded, ignoring interactions between alleles or loci let alone between genotype and environment. Consequently, PGSs are subject to the same objections that invalidated traditional heritability analyses in the 1970s. Thus, PGSs should not be used in the social sciences.

Phylogenetic diversity of two common Trypanosoma cruzi lineages in the Southwestern United States.

Trypanosoma cruzi is the causative agent of Chagas disease, a devastating parasitic disease endemic to Central and South America, Mexico, and the USA. We characterized the genetic diversity of Trypanosoma cruzi circulating in five triatomine species (Triatoma gerstaeckeri, T. lecticularia, T.indictiva, T. sanguisuga and T. recurva) collected in Texas and Southern Arizona using multilocus sequence typing (MLST) with four single-copy loci (cytochrome oxidase subunit II- NADH dehydrogensase subunit 1 region (COII-ND1), mismatch-repair class 2 (MSH2), dihydrofolate reductase-thymidylate synthase (DHFR-TS) and a nuclear gene with ID TcCLB.506529.310). All T. cruzi variants fall in two main genetic lineages: 75% of the samples corresponded to T. cruzi Discrete Typing Unit (DTU) I (TcI), and 25% to a North American specific lineage previously labelled TcIV-USA. Phylogenetic and sequence divergence analyses of our new data plus all previously published sequence data from those four loci collected in the USA, show that TcIV-USA is significantly different from any other previously defined T. cruzi DTUs. The significant level of genetic divergence between TcIV-USA and other T. cruzi DTUs should lead to an increased focus on understanding the epidemiological importance of this DTU, as well as its geographical range and pathogenicity in humans and domestic animals. Our findings further corroborate the fact that there is a high genetic diversity of the parasite in North America and emphasize the need for appropriate surveillance and vector control programs for Chagas disease in southern USA and Mexico.

Modeling strongyloidiasis risk in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To provide a spatial risk assessment for the neglected disease strongyloidiasis in the United States by prioritizing areas with high probability of Strongyloides stercoralis presence and to offer recommendations for targeted screening and surveillance. METHODS: The risk assessment was based on a species distribution model with parasite occurrence data and ecologically important environmental variables as input and local habitat suitability for the species as output. The model used a maximum entropy algorithm and occurrence records and environmental data from public sources. This ecological risk assessment was coupled to socioeconomic factors using multi-criteria analysis. RESULTS: The model predicts suitable habitat for the parasite in ten states beyond the southeastern United States where it has been recorded including states in the south, east and northeast, and west coasts. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend strongyloidiasis should be reportable in 16 states at high risk and uniform, near universal solid organ transplant screening should be implemented alongside approaches to heighten clinical suspicion.

Modeling the relative role of human mobility, land-use and climate factors on dengue outbreak emergence in Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: More than 80,000 dengue cases including 215 deaths were reported nationally in less than 7 months between 2016 and 2017, a fourfold increase in the number of reported cases compared to the average number over 2010-2016. The region of Negombo, located in the Western province, experienced the greatest number of dengue cases in the country and is the focus area of our study, where we aim to capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of dengue transmission. METHODS: We present a statistical modeling framework to evaluate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the 2016-2017 dengue outbreak in the Negombo region of Sri Lanka as a function of human mobility, land-use, and climate patterns. The analysis was conducted at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution and a weekly temporal resolution. RESULTS: Our results indicate human mobility to be a stronger indicator for local outbreak clusters than land-use or climate variables. The minimum daily temperature was identified as the most influential climate variable on dengue cases in the region; while among the set of land-use patterns considered, urban areas were found to be most prone to dengue outbreak, followed by areas with stagnant water and then coastal areas. The results are shown to be robust across spatial resolutions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the potential value of using travel data to target vector control within a region. In addition to illustrating the relative relationship between various potential risk factors for dengue outbreaks, the results of our study can be used to inform where and when new cases of dengue are likely to occur within a region, and thus help more effectively and innovatively, plan for disease surveillance and vector control.

Correction: A Global Airport-Based Risk Model for the Spread of Dengue Infection via the Air Transport Network.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072129.].

Haldane's The causes of evolution and the Modern Synthesis in evolutionary biology.

This paper argues that Haldane's The causes of evolution was the most important founding document in the emergence of the received view of evolutionary theory which is typically referred to as the Modern Synthesis. Whether or not this historical development is characterized as a synthesis (which remains controversial), this paper argues the most important component of the emergence of the received view consisted of showing how the formal rules of Mendelian inheritance are based on (or emerge from) the material basis of heredity established by classical genetics primarily through the experimental work on Drosophila genetics of the Morgan school in the 1910s and 1920s. This is one of the most important achievements of Haldane's book. Thus this paper rejects both (i) the view that the synthesis was a unification of biometry and Mendelism and (ii) the claim that it arose from work primarily done in the late 1930s and 1940s by naturalists rather than theoretical population and classical experimental geneticists.

Correction: Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 in China: A spatial risk analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174980.].

Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 in China: A spatial risk analysis.

BACKGROUND: Zoonotic avian influenza poses a major risk to China, and other parts of the world. H5N1 has remained endemic in China and globally for nearly two decades, and in 2013, a novel zoonotic influenza A subtype H7N9 emerged in China. This study aimed to improve upon our current understanding of the spreading mechanisms of H7N9 and H5N1 by generating spatial risk profiles for each of the two virus subtypes across mainland China. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this study, we (i) developed a refined data set of H5N1 and H7N9 locations with consideration of animal/animal environment case data, as well as spatial accuracy and precision; (ii) used this data set along with environmental variables to build species distribution models (SDMs) for each virus subtype in high resolution spatial units of 1km2 cells using Maxent; (iii) developed a risk modelling framework which integrated the results from the SDMs with human and chicken population variables, which was done to quantify the risk of zoonotic transmission; and (iv) identified areas at high risk of H5N1 and H7N9 transmission. We produced high performing SDMs (6 of 8 models with AUC > 0.9) for both H5N1 and H7N9. In all our SDMs, H7N9 consistently showed higher AUC results compared to H5N1, suggesting H7N9 suitability could be better explained by environmental variables. For both subtypes, high risk areas were primarily located in south-eastern China, with H5N1 distributions found to be more diffuse and extending more inland compared to H7N9. CONCLUSIONS: We provide projections of our risk models to public health policy makers so that specific high risk areas can be targeted for control measures. We recommend comparing H5N1 and H7N9 prevalence rates and survivability in the natural environment to better understand the role of animal and environmental transmission in human infections.

Vector status of Aedes species determines geographical risk of autochthonous Zika virus establishment.

BACKGROUND: The 2015-16 Zika virus pandemic originating in Latin America led to predictions of a catastrophic global spread of the disease. Since the current outbreak began in Brazil in May 2015 local transmission of Zika has been reported in over 60 countries and territories, with over 750 thousand confirmed and suspected cases. As a result of its range expansion attention has focused on possible modes of transmission, of which the arthropod vector-based disease spread cycle involving Aedes species is believed to be the most important. Additional causes of concern are the emerging new links between Zika disease and Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS), and a once rare congenital disease, microcephaly. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Like dengue and chikungunya, the geographic establishment of Zika is thought to be limited by the occurrence of its principal vector mosquito species, Ae. aegypti and, possibly, Ae. albopictus. While Ae. albopictus populations are more widely established than those of Ae. aegypti, the relative competence of these species as a Zika vector is unknown. The analysis reported here presents a global risk model that considers the role of each vector species independently, and quantifies the potential spreading risk of Zika into new regions. Six scenarios are evaluated which vary in the weight assigned to Ae. albopictus as a possible spreading vector. The scenarios are bounded by the extreme assumptions that spread is driven by air travel and Ae. aegypti presence alone and spread driven equally by both species. For each scenario destination cities at highest risk of Zika outbreaks are prioritized, as are source cities in affected regions. Finally, intercontinental air travel routes that pose the highest risk for Zika spread are also ranked. The results are compared between scenarios. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Results from the analysis reveal that if Ae. aegypti is the only competent Zika vector, then risk is geographically limited; in North America mainly to Florida and Texas. However, if Ae. albopictus proves to be a competent vector of Zika, which does not yet appear to be the case, then there is risk of local establishment in all American regions including Canada and Chile, much of Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, as well as South and East Asia, with a substantial increase in risk to Asia due to the more recent local establishment of Zika in Singapore.

Haldane and Mayr: a response to Rao and Nanjundiah.

The discussion with Rao and Nanjundiah about the history of interactions between J. B. S. Haldane and Ernst Mayr is further extended in this note. The nature of the dispute about beanbag genetics is explicated as consisting of two separate issues, one about the role of mathematical analysis in evolutionary biology, and the other about the value of single-locus genic models.

R. A. FISHER, LANCELOT HOGBEN, AND THE 'COMPETITION' FOR THE CHAIR OF SOCIAL BIOLOGY AT THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS IN 1930: CORRECTING THE LEGEND.

From 1930 to 1937 Lancelot Hogben FRS occupied the Chair of Social Biology at the London School of Economics and Political Science. According to standard histories of this appointment, he and R. A. Fisher FRS both applied for the position, but Hogben was selected over Fisher. The episode has received attention in large part because of the later prominence of the two figures involved. The surviving archival records, however, tell a remarkably different story. Neither Fisher nor Hogben was ever an official candidate for the chair. Indeed, Fisher seems not to have applied for the position at all, and Hogben was approached only behind the scenes of the official search. The purpose of this paper is to correct and complete the history of this episode.

Nagel on reduction.

This paper attempts a critical reappraisal of Nagel's (1961, 1970) model of reduction taking into account both traditional criticisms and recent defenses. This model treats reduction as a type of explanation in which a reduced theory is explained by a reducing theory after their relevant representational items have been suitably connected. In accordance with the deductive-nomological model, the explanation is supposed to consist of a logical deduction. Nagel was a pluralist about both the logical form of the connections between the reduced and reducing theories (which could be conditionals or biconditionals) and their epistemological status (as analytic connections, conventions, or synthetic claims). This paper defends Nagel's pluralism on both counts and, in the process, argues that the multiple realizability objection to reductionism is misplaced. It also argues that the Nagel model correctly characterizes reduction as a type of explanation. However, it notes that logical deduction must be replaced by a broader class of inferential techniques that allow for different types of approximation. Whereas Nagel (1970), in contrast to his earlier position (1961), recognized the relevance of approximation, he did not realize its full import for the model. Throughout the paper two case studies are used to illustrate the arguments: the putative reduction of classical thermodynamics to the kinetic theory of matter and that of classical genetics to molecular biology.

The Biology of the Triatomine Bugs Native to South Central Texas and Assessment of the Risk They Pose for Autochthonous Chagas Disease Exposure.

Triatomine bugs are a group of hematophagous arthropods that can serve as biological vectors for Trypanosoma cruzi , the etiological agent of American trypanosomiasis (Chagas disease). Because of differences in the biology and feeding habits among triatomine species, some are more likely than others to be involved in zoonotic and/or human-to-human transmission cycles of T. cruzi . In an attempt to assess the risk for Chagas disease exposure in south-central Texas, human habitations across Texas Health Service Region 8 (HSR 8) and surrounding counties were surveyed for triatomines to characterize the geographic distribution, species-specific biology, and T. cruzi -infection prevalence better. Between May 2010 and August 2013, a total of 545 triatomines representing all 5 known indigenous species (Triatoma gerstaeckeri, Triatoma indictiva, Triatoma lecticularia, Triatoma sanguisuga, and Triatoma protracta woodi) were collected from 59 sites across the region. Triatoma gerstaeckeri was the species most commonly found in domestic and peridomestic ecotopes across Texas HSR 8, representing over 80% of the triatomines collected. Adult T. gerstaeckeri exhibited a seasonal dispersal pattern that began in late April, peaked in mid-May, and then continued into August. On homes with available crevices in the exterior walls, adult T. gerstaeckeri were observed emerging from or entering these protective microhabitats, suggesting possible opportunistic colonization of some exterior walls compartments. Laboratory testing of triatomine hindgut contents for T. cruzi by PCR demonstrated the adult T. gerstaeckeri-infection prevalence across Texas HSR 8 to be 64%. Monitoring peridomestic adult T. gerstaeckeri over the seasonal dispersal peak demonstrated statistically significant increases in both their T. cruzi -infection prevalence (P < 0.01) and tendency to invade human dwellings (P < 0.01) in the later aspect of the emergence peak. In addition to the adult insects, variably sized and staged nymphs were recovered from the inside of 6 separate homes across Texas HSR 8. The results of this study show that T. gerstaeckeri is a widespread and common triatomine species across Texas HSR 8 and documented it to have some notable synanthropic tendencies. The high prevalence of T. cruzi infection in native triatomines, and the high frequency with which T. gerstaeckeri is recovered from human habitations, suggests that there is a risk for human exposure to T. cruzi in Texas HSR 8. Because of this, Chagas disease should be considered on the list of differential diagnoses for cases of cardiac arrhythmia, dilated cardiomyopathy, or heart failure in south-central Texas.

Hazards inherent in interdisciplinary behavioral research.

Many, if not all, questions in biology and psychology today were formulated and considered in depth, though typically in a different language, from the 1700's to the early 1900's. However, because of politics or fashion, some topics fell out of favor or failed to recruit new scientists and hence languished. Despite greatly expanded scholarship in the history of the life sciences in the twentieth century, many such topics have had to be rediscovered in recent years, while much of the wisdom already accrued stays in the older literature and not in active minds. This is particularly true today when scientific advances appear at breakneck speed. It would not be an exaggeration to say that many 'breakthroughs' turn out really to be rediscoveries of forgotten observations. Two areas of particular significance to the interdisciplinary study of behavior are the Norms of Reaction (from Biology) and the concept of Plasticity (from Psychology). These and related fields benefit from the perspective of epigenetics so long as rigorous operational definitions are implemented. It is also important to revive Hogben's admonition that the interaction of hereditary and environment cannot be understood outside of the context of development. Five examples of increasing complexity in phenotypic plasticity in brain and behavior are presented to illustrate this perspective.

A determination of the spatial concordance between Lyme disease incidence and habitat probability of its primary vector Ixodes scapularis (black-legged tick).

The spatial distribution of Ixodes scapularis, the most common tick vector of the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, the cause of Lyme disease in humans, has not been studied previously in Texas, United States of America. It has only rarely been reported in this state, so its local, spatial relationship to the distribution of this disease is unknown. From an epidemiological perspective, one would tend to hypothesise that there should be a high degree of spatial concordance between habitat suitability for the tick and incidence of the disease. Both maximum-entropy modelling of the tick's habitat probability and modelling of human incidence of Lyme disease using spatially adaptive filters provide reliable portrayals of the spatial distributions of these phenomena. Even though rates of human cases of Lyme disease as well as rates of Ixodes ticks infected with Borrelia bacteria are both relatively low in Texas, the best data currently available indicate that the assumption of high levels of spatial concordance would not be correct in Texas (Kappa coefficient of agreement = 0.039). It will take substantially more data to provide conclusive findings and to understand the results reported here, but this study provides an approach to begin understanding the discrepancy.