Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security.

Climate change is recognised to lead to spatial shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by altering their environmental optima. Fish supply along the Northwest African coast is significant at both socio-economic and cultural levels. Evaluating the impacts of climatic change on small pelagic fish is a challenge and of serious concern in the context of shared stock management. Evaluating the impact of climate change on the distribution of small pelagic fish, a trend analysis was conducted using data from 2363 trawl samplings and 170,000 km of acoustics sea surveys. Strong warming is reported across the Southern Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), extending from Morocco to Senegal. Over 34 years, several trends emerged, with the southern CCLME experiencing increases in both wind speed and upwelling intensity, particularly where the coastal upwelling was already the strongest. Despite upwelling-induced cooling mechanisms, sea surface temperature (SST) increased in most areas, indicating the complex interplay of climatic-related stressors in shaping the marine ecosystem. Concomitant northward shifts in the distribution of small pelagic species were attributed to long-term warming trends in SST and a decrease in marine productivity in the south. The abundance of Sardinella aurita, the most abundant species along the coast, has increased in the subtropics and fallen in the intertropical region. Spatial shifts in biomass were observed for other exploited small pelagic species, similar to those recorded for surface isotherms. An intensification in upwelling intensity within the northern and central regions of the system is documented without a change in marine primary productivity. In contrast, upwelling intensity is stable in the southern region, while there is a decline in primary productivity. These environmental differences affected several small pelagic species across national boundaries. This adds a new threat to these recently overexploited fish stocks, making sustainable management more difficult. Such changes must motivate common regional policy considerations for food security and sovereignty in all West African countries sharing the same stocks.

On the robustness of an eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem exposed to multiple stressors.

The resistance of an east border upwelling system was investigated using relative index of marine pelagic biomass estimates under a changing environment spanning 20-years in the strongly exploited southern Canary Current Large marine Ecosystem (sCCLME). We divided the sCCLME in two parts (north and south of Cap Blanc), based on oceanographic regimes. We delineated two size-based groups ("plankton" and "pelagic fish") corresponding to lower and higher trophic levels, respectively. Over the 20-year period, all spatial remote sensing environmental variables increased significantly, except in the area south of Cap Blanc where sea surface Chlorophyll-a concentrations declined and the upwelling favorable wind was stable. Relative index of marine pelagic abundance was higher in the south area compared to the north area of Cap Blanc. No significant latitudinal shift to the mass center was detected, regardless of trophic level. Relative pelagic abundance did not change, suggesting sCCLME pelagic organisms were able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Despite strong annual variability and the presence of major stressors (overfishing, climate change), the marine pelagic ressources, mainly fish and plankton remained relatively stable over the two decades, advancing our understanding on the resistance of this east border upwelling system.