Use of failure-to-rescue after emergency surgery as a dynamic indicator of hospital resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. A multicenter retrospective propensity score-matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Surgical failure-to-rescue (FTR, death rate following complications) is a reliable cross-sectional quality of care marker, but has not been evaluated dynamically. We aimed to study changes in FTR following emergency surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Matched cohort study including all COVID-19-non-infected adult patients undergoing emergency general surgery in 25 Spanish hospitals during COVID-19 pandemic peak (March-April 2020), non-peak (May-June 2020), and 2019 control periods. A propensity score-matched comparative analysis was conducted using a logistic regression model, in which period was regressed on observed baseline characteristics. Subsequently, a mixed effects logistic regression model was constructed for each variable of interest. Main variable was FTR. Secondary variables were post-operative complications, readmissions, reinterventions, and length of stay. RESULTS: 5003 patients were included (948, 1108, and 2947 in the pandemic peak, non-peak, and control periods), with comparable clinical characteristics, prognostic scores, complications, reintervention, rehospitalization rates, and length of stay across periods. FTR was greater during the pandemic peak than during non-peak and pre-pandemic periods (22.5% vs. 17.2% and 12.7%), being this difference confirmed in adjusted analysis (odds ratio [OR] 2.13, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.27-3.66). There was sensible inter-hospital variability in FTR changes during the pandemic peak (median FTR change +8.77%, IQR 0-29.17%) not observed during the pandemic non-peak period (median FTR change 0%, IQR -6.01-6.72%). Greater FTR increase was associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.31-4.16) and some hospital characteristics, including tertiary level (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.27-8.00), medium-volume (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.14-7.34), and high basal-adjusted complication risk (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.07-4.72). CONCLUSION: FTR following emergency surgery experienced a heterogeneous increase during different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting it to behave as an indicator of hospital resilience. FTR monitoring could facilitate identification of centres in special needs during ongoing health care challenges.

Machine Learning Risk Prediction Model of 90-day Mortality After Gastrectomy for Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk prediction model of 90-day mortality (90DM) using machine learning in a large multicenter cohort of patients undergoing gastric cancer resection with curative intent. BACKGROUND: The 90DM rate after gastrectomy for cancer is a quality of care indicator in surgical oncology. There is a lack of well-validated instruments for personalized prognosis of gastric cancer. METHODS: Consecutive patients with gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent potentially curative gastrectomy between 2014 and 2021 registered in the Spanish EURECCA Esophagogastric Cancer Registry database were included. The 90DM for all causes was the study outcome. Preoperative clinical characteristics were tested in four 90DM predictive models: Cross Validated Elastic regularized logistic regression method (cv-Enet), boosting linear regression (glmboost), random forest, and an ensemble model. Performance was evaluated using the area under the curve by 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: A total of 3182 and 260 patients from 39 institutions in 6 regions were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The 90DM rate was 5.6% and 6.2%, respectively. The random forest model showed the best discrimination capacity with a validated area under the curve of 0.844 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.841-0.848] as compared with cv-Enet (0.796, 95% CI: 0.784-0.808), glmboost (0.797, 95% CI: 0.785-0.809), and ensemble model (0.847, 95% CI: 0.836-0.858) in the development cohort. Similar discriminative capacity was observed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: A robust clinical model for predicting the risk of 90DM after surgery of gastric cancer was developed. Its use may aid patients and surgeons in making informed decisions.

P-POSSUM as mortality predictor in COVID-19-infected patients submitted to emergency digestive surgery. A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 infection is associated with a higher mortality rate in surgical patients, but surgical risk scores have not been validated in the emergency setting. We aimed to study the capacity for postoperative mortality prediction of the P-POSSUM score in COVID-19-positive patients submitted to emergency general and digestive surgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing emergency general and digestive surgery from March to June 2020, and from March to June 2019 in 25 Spanish hospitals were included in a retrospective cohort study. MAIN OUTCOME: 30-day mortality. P-POSSUM discrimination was quantified by the area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves; calibration was assessed by linear regression slope (ß estimator); and sensitivity and specificity were expressed as percentage and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: 4988 patients were included: 177 COVID-19-positive; 2011 intra-pandemic COVID-19-negative; and 2800 pre-pandemic. COVID-19-positive patients were older, with higher surgical risk, more advanced pathologies, and higher P-POSSUM values (1.79% vs. 1.09%, p < 0.001, in both the COVID-19-negative and control cohort). 30-day mortality in the COVID-19-positive, intra-pandemic COVID-19-negative and pre-pandemic cohorts were: 12.9%, 4.6%, and 3.2%. The P-POSSUM predictive values in the three cohorts were, respectively: AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.95), 0.89 (95% CI 0.87-0.92), and 0.91 (95% CI 0.88-0.93); ß value 0.97 (95% CI 0.74-1.2), 0.99 (95% CI 0.82-1.16), and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.82); sensitivity 83% (95% CI 61-95), 91% (95% CI 84-96), and 89% (95% CI 80-94); and specificity 81% (95% CI 74-87), 76% (95% CI 74-78), and 80% (95% CI 79-82). CONCLUSION: The P-POSSUM score showed a good predictive capacity for postoperative mortality in COVID-19-positive patients submitted to emergency general and digestive surgery.

Estado actual de la gastrectomía por cáncer. "Less is often more" / Current status of gastrectomy for cancer: "Less is often more"

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Resultados a corto plazo de la gastrectomía casi total (95% gastrectomy) laparoscópica / Short-term results of near-total (95%) laparoscopic gastrectomy

INTRODUCCIÓN: La gastrectomía total es una cirugía con importante morbimortalidad perioperatoria que es considerada el tratamiento de elección en el cáncer gástrico proximal. Descrita por primera vez en 1980, nuestro grupo describió y estandarizó la gastrectomía 95% totalmente laparoscópica en 2014. Esta técnica pretende disminuir las complicaciones de la gastrectomía total sin descuidar la radicalidad oncológica de la misma. Se presentan los primeros resultados de una cohorte de casos consecutivos tras 4 años realizando la técnica en 2 centros hospitalarios. MÉTODOS: Se ha llevado a cabo un estudio prospectivo observacional en 67 pacientes con gastrectomía 95% laparoscópica realizadas entre 2014 y 2017. El objetivo principal ha sido la detección de complicaciones (Clavien Dindo > IIIa), centrándose en la fuga anastomótica como la más importante. Objetivo secundario fue valorar la calidad de la cirugía oncológica. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 67 pacientes consecutivos en los que se realizó gastrectomía 95% totalmente laparoscópica. No existió ningún caso de fuga anastomótica, 2 pacientes (2,98%) presentaron una o más complicaciones Clavien Dindo ≥ IIIa. La estancia total fue de 6 (3-13) días. Se realizó resección radical R0 en todos los pacientes. CONCLUSIONES: La gastrectomía 95% permite en pacientes seleccionados cumplir los estándares oncológicos de resección en el cáncer gástrico proximal de manera reproductible y segura, disminuyendo los riesgos perioperatorios como la fuga anastomótica. Se trata de un estudio prospectivo observacional no comparativo, por lo que son necesarios más estudios para valorar la estandarización de la técnica

INTRODUCTION: Total gastrectomy is a surgery with significant perioperative morbidity and mortality, being considered the treatment of choice in proximal gastric cancer. First described in 1980, our group reported and standardized totally laparoscopic 95% gastrectomy in 2014. This technique aims to reduce the complications of total gastrectomy while maintaining oncological radicality. We present the initial results from a cohort of consecutive cases after performing the technique for 4 years at 2 hospital centers. METHODS: A prospective observational study was carried out in 67 patients with laparoscopic 95% gastrectomy between 2014 and 2017. The main objective has been to detect complications (Clavien Dindo> IIIa), focusing on anastomotic leaks as the most important. The secondary objective was to assess the quality of oncological surgery. RESULTS: Sixty-seven consecutive patients were included, in whom 95% totally laparoscopic gastrectomy was performed. There was no case of anastomotic leak. Two patients (2.98%) had one or more Clavien Dindo complications equal to or greater than IIIa. The total hospital stay was 6 (3-13) days. R0 radical resection was performed in all patients. CONCLUSIONS: 95% gastrectomy allows selected patients to meet the oncological standards of resection in proximal gastric cancer in a reproducible and safe manner, reducing perioperative risks such as anastomotic leakage. It is a non-comparative observational prospective study, so more studies are needed to assess the standardization of the technique

Short-term results of near-total (95%) laparoscopic gastrectomy. / Resultados a corto plazo de la gastrectomía casi total (95%gastrectomy) laparoscópica.

INTRODUCTION: Total gastrectomy is a surgery with significant perioperative morbidity and mortality, being considered the treatment of choice in proximal gastric cancer. First described in 1980, our group reported and standardized totally laparoscopic 95% gastrectomy in 2014. This technique aims to reduce the complications of total gastrectomy while maintaining oncological radicality. We present the initial results from a cohort of consecutive cases after performing the technique for 4 years at 2 hospital centers. METHODS: A prospective observational study was carried out in 67 patients with laparoscopic 95% gastrectomy between 2014 and 2017. The main objective has been to detect complications (Clavien Dindo> IIIa), focusing on anastomotic leaks as the most important. The secondary objective was to assess the quality of oncological surgery. RESULTS: Sixty-seven consecutive patients were included, in whom 95% totally laparoscopic gastrectomy was performed. There was no case of anastomotic leak. Two patients (2.98%) had one or more Clavien Dindo complications equal to or greater than IIIa. The total hospital stay was 6 (3-13) days. R0 radical resection was performed in all patients. CONCLUSIONS: 95% gastrectomy allows selected patients to meet the oncological standards of resection in proximal gastric cancer in a reproducible and safe manner, reducing perioperative risks such as anastomotic leakage. It is a non-comparative observational prospective study, so more studies are needed to assess the standardization of the technique.