A short-term and long-term relationship between occurrence of acute canine babesiosis and meteorological parameters in Belgrade, Serbia.

Belgrade, the capital of the Republic of Serbia, is an endemic location for canine babesiosis caused by Babesia canis. This tick-borne disease occurs seasonally in regions with moderate continental climate. However, recent clinical data show that: 1) some cases of canine babesiosis have been recorded during the winter, and 2) canine babesiosis is spreading to the northern parts of Europe with a colder climate, which is a region previously free of this disease. Our study investigates the occurrence of canine babesiosis in different seasons over 2013-2016, and explores a short-term link between meteorological parameters and number of diagnosed cases of canine babesiosis in Belgrade. It also looks into possible long-term correlations that span one year before the onset of the disease. Based on 872 recorded cases over four years, our results show a bimodal seasonal distribution of canine babesiosis, with a pronounced peak in the spring, and a less conspicuous one in the autumn. Throughout the year, even over the coldest and warmest periods, there is a broad range of temperatures and relative humidities when the disease is recorded. Over one year prior to the spring and autumn onset of the disease, we found a noticeable impact of temperature and relative humidity, and to a lesser extent, of atmospheric pressure and cloud cover, on the number of diagnosed cases. These findings imply short-term and long-term relationships between occurrence of acute canine babesiosis and certain meteorological parameters, and they open further questions that need to be investigated in order to understand the epidemiology of this disease.

Analysis of trends, periodicities, and correlations in the beryllium-7 time series in Northern Europe.

The activity concentrations of beryllium-7, a natural radiotracer that is considered as a tracer of the stratospheric-tropospheric exchange, shows a distinct behaviour in Northern Europe compared to the central and southern parts of the continent. In this study, we use the measurements collected at four sampling stations in Scandinavia (Ivalo, Umea, Kista, Risoe) between 2001 and 2010 and investigate their trends, periodicities and residuals with the aim to further understand the common features in the beryllium-7 data records in northern sampling sites. The beryllium-7 activity concentrations exhibit statistically significant positive trends that range from an average value of 1.50%/year to an average value of 2.96%/year. We detect a one-year periodicity in all the sites, and in the southernmost site, Risoe in Denmark, additional higher-frequency harmonics. In the residual time series, we find outliers that represent occurrences of extremely high beryllium-7 activity concentration. Cross-correlations of the beryllium-7 residuals across the four sites decrease with increasing distance; similarly, as indicated by local Hurst exponents the records exhibit long-range correlations that weaken towards the end of the investigated period. To investigate the causes of the detected trends, we also calculate correlations between beryllium-7 and factors related to its production, transport and removal from the atmosphere: in particular, cross-correlations of the beryllium-7 residuals with residuals in sunspot number, local temperature, atmospheric pressure and precipitation, as well as Arctic Oscillation index and North Atlantic Oscillation index. Most of the obtained correlations, however, are not statistically significant, highlighting the need to analyse a longer time period in order to evaluate the impact of different factors on the airborne beryllium-7 activity concentration.