Modeller subjectivity and calibration impacts on hydrological model applications: an event-based comparison for a road-adjacent catchment in south-east Norway.

Identifying a 'best' performing hydrologic model in a practical sense is difficult due to the potential influences of modeller subjectivity on, for example, calibration procedure and parameter selection. This is especially true for model applications at the event scale where the prevailing catchment conditions can have a strong impact on apparent model performance and suitability. In this study, two lumped models (CoupModel and HBV) and two physically-based distributed models (LISEM and MIKE SHE) were applied to a small catchment upstream of a road in south-eastern Norway. All models were calibrated to a single event representing typical winter conditions in the region and then applied to various other winter events to investigate the potential impact of calibration period and methodology on model performance. Peak flow and event-based hydrographs were simulated differently by all models leading to differences in apparent model performance under this application. In this case-study, the lumped models appeared to be better suited for hydrological events that differed from the calibration event (i.e., events when runoff was generated from rain on non-frozen soils rather than from rain and snowmelt on frozen soil) while the more physical-based approaches appeared better suited during snowmelt and frozen soil conditions more consistent with the event-specific calibration. This was due to the combination of variations in subsurface conditions over the eight events considered, the subsequent ability of the models to represent the impact of the conditions (particularly when subsurface conditions varied greatly from the calibration event), and the different approaches adopted to calibrate the models. These results indicate that hydrologic models may not only need to be selected on a case-by-case basis but also have their performance evaluated on an application-by-application basis since how a model is applied can be equally important as inherent model structure.

Quantifying the hydrological impact of simulated changes in land use on peak discharge in a small catchment.

A physically-based, distributed hydrological model (MIKE SHE) was used to quantify overland runoff in response to four extreme rain events and four types of simulated land use measure in a catchment in Norway. The current land use in the catchment comprises arable lands, forest, urban areas and a stream that passes under a motorway at the catchment outlet. This model simulation study demonstrates how the composition and configuration of land use measures affect discharge at the catchment outlet differently in response to storms of different sizes. For example, clear-cutting on 30% of the catchment area produced a 60% increase in peak discharge and a 10% increase in total runoff resulting from a 50-year storm event in summer, but the effects on peak discharge were less pronounced during smaller storms. Reforestation of 60% of the catchment area was the most effective measure in reducing peak flows for smaller (2-, 5- and 10-year) storms. Introducing grassed waterways reduced water velocity in the stream and resulted in a 28% reduction in peak flow at the catchment outlet for the 50-year storm event. Overall, the results indicate that the specific effect of land use measures on catchment discharge depends on their spatial distribution and on the size and timing of storm events.

From site data to safety assessment: analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at a coastal site in Sweden.

This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 AD), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances.

Identification and characterization of potential discharge areas for radionuclide transport by groundwater from a nuclear waste repository in Sweden.

This paper describes solute transport modeling carried out as a part of an assessment of the long-term radiological safety of a planned deep rock repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark, Sweden. Specifically, it presents transport modeling performed to locate and describe discharge areas for groundwater potentially carrying radionuclides from the repository to the surface where man and the environment could be affected by the contamination. The modeling results show that topography to large extent determines the discharge locations. Present and future lake and wetland objects are central for the radionuclide transport and dose calculations in the safety assessment. Results of detailed transport modeling focusing on the regolith and the upper part of the rock indicate that the identification of discharge areas and objects considered in the safety assessment is robust in the sense that it does not change when a more detailed model representation is used.