The epidemiology of acute pancreatitis in Tasmania over a 12-year period: Is this a disease of disadvantage?

BACKGROUND: The global incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasing, but little information exists about trends in Australia. This study aimed to describe incidence trends, along with clinical and socio-demographic associations, in the state of Tasmania over a recent 12-year period. METHODS: The study cohort was obtained by linking clinical and administrative datasets encompassing the whole Tasmanian population between 2007 and 2018, inclusive. Pancreatitis case definition was based on relevant ICD-10 hospitalization codes, or elevated serum lipase or amylase in pathology data. Age-standardised incidence rates were estimated, overall and stratified by sex, aetiology, and Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage (IRSD). RESULTS: In the study period, 4905 public hospital AP episodes were identified in 3503 people. The age-standardised person-based incidence rate across the entire period was 54 per 100,000 per year. Incidence was inversely related to IRSD score; 71 per 100,000 per year in the most disadvantaged quartile compared to 32 in the least disadvantaged. Biliary AP incidence was higher than that of alcohol-related AP, although the greatest incidence was in "unspecified" cases. There was an increase in incidence for the whole cohort (average annual percent change 3.23 %), largely driven by the two most disadvantaged IRSD quartiles; the least disadvantaged quartile saw a slight overall decrease. CONCLUSION: This is the first Australian study providing robust evidence that AP incidence is increasing and is at the upper limit of population-based studies worldwide. This increased incidence is greatest in socio-economically disadvantaged areas, meriting further research to develop targeted, holistic management strategies.

Fluid resuscitation in the early management of acute pancreatitis - evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Third space fluid loss is one of the hallmarks of the pathophysiology of acute pancreatitis (AP) contributing to complications, including organ failure and death. We conducted a systematic review of literature to determine the ideal fluid resuscitation in the early management of AP, primarily comparing aggressive versus moderate intravenous fluid resuscitation (AIR vs MIR). METHODS: A systematic review of major reference databases was undertaken. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects model. Bias was assessed using Cochrane risk of bias and ROBINS-I tools for randomized and non-randomised studies, respectively. RESULTS: Twenty studies were included in the analysis. Though there was no significant difference in mortality between AIR and MIR groups (8.3% versus 6.0%; p = 0.3), AIR cohort had significantly higher rates of organ failure (p = 0.009), including pulmonary (p = 0.02) and renal (p = 0.01) complications. Similarly, there was no difference in mortality between normal saline (NS) and Ringer's lactate (RL) (3.17% versus 3.01%; p = 0.23), though patients treated with NS had a significantly longer length of hospital stay (LOS) (p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence appears to support moderate intravenous resuscitation (level of evidence, low) with RL (level of evidence, moderate) in the early management of AP.

A core set of quality performance indicators for HPB procedures: a global consensus for hepatectomy, pancreatectomy, and complex biliary surgery.

BACKGROUND: Surgery for hepatopancreaticobiliary (HPB) conditions is performed worldwide. This investigation aimed to develop a set of globally accepted procedural quality performance indicators (QPI) for HPB surgical procedures. METHODS: A systematic literature review generated a dataset of published QPI for hepatectomy, pancreatectomy, complex biliary surgery and cholecystectomy. Using a modified Delphi process, three rounds were conducted with working groups composed of self-nominating members of the International Hepatopancreaticobiliary Association (IHPBA). The final set of QPI was circulated to the full membership of the IHPBA for review. RESULTS: Seven "core" indicators were agreed for hepatectomy, pancreatectomy, and complex biliary surgery (availability of specific services on site, a specialised surgical team with at least two certified HPB surgeons, a satisfactory institutional case volume, synoptic pathology reporting, undertaking of unplanned reintervention procedures within 90 days, the incidence of post-procedure bile leak and Clavien-Dindo grade ≥III complications and 90-day post-procedural mortality). Three further procedure specific QPI were proposed for pancreatectomy, six for hepatectomy and complex biliary surgery. Nine procedure-specific QPIs were proposed for cholecystectomy. The final set of proposed indicators were reviewed and approved by 102 IHPBA members from 34 countries. CONCLUSIONS: This work presents a core set of internationally agreed QPI for HPB surgery.

Expansion of Liver Transplantation Criteria for Hepatocellular Carcinoma from Milan to UCSF in Australia and New Zealand and Justification for Metroticket 2.0.

Background: Expansion in liver transplantation (LT) criteria for HCC from Milan to UCSF has not adversely impacted overall survival, prompting further expansion towards Metroticket 2.0 (MT2). In this study, we compared patient survival post-transplant before and after 2007 and long-term outcomes for LT within Milan versus UCSF criteria (to determine the true benefit of the expansion of criteria) and retrospectively validated the MT2 criteria. Methods: Retrospective analysis of ANZLITR (including all patients transplanted for HCC since July 1997). The entire cohort was divided based on criteria used at the time of listing, namely, Milan era (1997−2006) and the UCSF era (2007−July 2015). Results: The overall 5- and 10-year cumulative survival rates for the entire cohort of 691 patients were 78% and 69%, respectively. Patients transplanted in UCSF era had significantly higher 5- and 10-year survival rates than in the Milan era (80% vs. 73% and 72% vs. 65%, respectively; p = 0.016). In the UCSF era, the 5-year survival rate for patients transplanted within Milan criteria was significantly better than those transplanted outside Milan but within UCSF criteria (83% vs. 73%; p < 0.024). Patients transplanted within the MT2 criteria had a significantly better 5- and 10-year survival rate as compared to those outside the criteria (81% vs. 64% and 73% vs. 50%, respectively; p = 0.001). Conclusion: Overall survival following LT for HCC has significantly improved over time despite expanding criteria from Milan to UCSF. Patients fulfilling the MT2 criteria have a survival comparable to the UCSF cohort. Thus, expansion of criteria to MT2 is justifiable.

Gastrointestinal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Survival Trends in South Australia, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Globally, there has been a concerning rise in the incidence of young-onset cancers. The aim of this study was to provide trends in the incidence and survival of gastrointestinal adenocarcinomas (oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, and colorectal) in South Australia over a 27-year period. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective longitudinal database including all cases of gastrointestinal adenocarcinomas prospectively reported to the South Australian (State) Cancer Registry from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: A total of 28,566 patients diagnosed with oesophageal, stomach, pancreatic, or colorectal adenocarcinoma between 1990 and 2017 were included in the study. While the overall incidence for gastrointestinal adenocarcinomas in individuals >50 years has decreased since 2000 (IRR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.94-1.00; p = 0.06)) compared to 1990-1999, the rate amongst individuals aged 18-50 has significantly increased (IRR 1.41 (95% CI 1.27-1.57; p < 0.001)) during the same reference time period. Although noted in both sexes, the rate of increase in incidence was significantly greater in males (11.5 to 19.7/100,000; p < 0.001). The overall survival from adenocarcinomas across all subsites improved in the >50-year cohort in the last decade (HR 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.93; p < 0.001)) compared to 1990-1999. In individuals aged 18-50 years, there has only been a significant improvement in survival for colorectal cancer (HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.68-0.99; p < 0.04)), but not the other subsites. A lower overall survival was noted for males in both age cohorts (18-50 years-HR 1.24 (95% CI 1.09-1.13; p < 0.01) and >50 years-HR 1.13 (95% CI 1.10-1.16; p < 0.001), respectively) compared to females. CONCLUSIONS: This study from South Australia demonstrates a significant increase in young-onset gastrointestinal adenocarcinomas over the last 28 years, with a greater increase in the male sex. The only significant improvement in survival in this cohort has been noted in colorectal cancer patients.

Enhancing the cost-effectiveness of surgical care in pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and cost meta-analysis with trial sequential analysis.

BACKGROUND: Clinical pathways (CP) based on Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS®) are increasingly utilised in patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). This systematic review aimed to compare the impact of CPs versus conventional care (CC) on peri-PD costs. METHODS: A systematic review of major reference databases was undertaken. Quality assessment was performed using the CHEERS checklist. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as part of the cost-effectiveness analysis. A meta-analysis was performed using random-effects models and Trial sequential analysis (TSA) was used to assess the precision and conclusiveness of the results. RESULTS: 14 studies meeting inclusion criteria were included for full qualitative synthesis. All studies reported a reduction in overall costs, length of stay and overall complication rates for CPs when compared to CC. Meta-analysis performed on nine studies demonstrated significantly reduced costs in the CP group, with considerable heterogeneity (Pooled mean difference of $ 4.28 × 103, p < 0.01, I2 = 95%). Cost-effectiveness analysis in relation to complications demonstrated dominance of CPs over CC in being cheaper as well as more effective. TSA supported the cost benefit of enhanced-recovery CPs, displaying minimal type 1 error. CONCLUSION: Peri-PD CPs result in significant cost-reduction in comparison to CC.

Birth of a solid organ cancer-the cell fusion hypothesis presented with pancreatic cancer as a model: a narrative review.

OBJECTIVE: This hypothesis-driven narrative review aims to explore the evidence for the fundamental process of cell fusion between normal, but different, cell types in the genesis of a cancer cell. BACKGROUND: Finding out how a cancer is born must remain a top priority as this will allow us the opportunity to understand the disease before it acquires its largely 'untameable' heterogeneous form. The search for the cell of origin in solid organ cancers has remained elusive despite concerted attempts over many decades. There is always more than one cell type implicated in the causation of solid organ cancers. METHODS: Based on preliminary data from our laboratory and a review of the evidence in literature, we present a novel hypothesis to explain the origin of solid organ cancers using pancreatic cancer as an example. CONCLUSIONS: We hypothesize that, "Cancer is born from fusion and hybridization of normal cells from two different lineages located within the vicinity of each other that perceive a signal reminiscent of a threat to their extinction that leads to epigenetically-mediated transformations permitting them to achieve cell fusion." Addressing this hypothesis to prove, or disprove it, presents an opportunity to unravel the basis of carcinogenesis and potential re-think our strategies for treatment in terms of choice of chemotherapeutic agents, dosage of chemo- and radiation-therapy, and timing of interventions (surgery, chemotherapy and radiation therapy).

Down-regulation of metabolic pathways could offset the poor prognosis conferred by co-existent diabetes mellitus in pancreatic (head) adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) have poor overall survival. Underlying mechanisms have not been fully clarified. This presents an opportunity for precision-oncology for which we systematically analysed publicly-available PDAC transcriptome data. METHODS: PDAC TCGA RNASeq data were used. Analyses were restricted to only 'high purity' and 'head' as anatomical site. Patients were characterised by: (1) Gene expression classification, and (2) Weighted gene correlation network analysis (WGCNA) to identify co-expression patterns of genes. Newly identified gene signature subclasses of pancreatic head PDAC were associated with clinical and functional characteristics of patients. RESULTS: Consensus clustering identified two patient subclasses within PDAC involving pancreatic head. WGCNA identified 11 distinct networks of gene expression patterns across two sub-classes. Class 1 patients demonstrated a significant upregulation of Module 5 and Module 6 gene expression compared to Class 2. Class 1 predominantly expressed the acinar, ductal and islet cell gene signatures. There were significantly less patients with DM in Class 1 subclass compared to Class 2 (p < 0.037). Patients with DM had significant downregulation of pathways involved in cellular metabolism, hormone secretion and paucity of islet cell markers with no reduced survival compared with non-diabetics. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of patients with PDAC of pancreatic head and DM exhibit downregulation of pathways involved in cellular metabolism, hormone secretion and signalling accompanied by a paucity of islet expression. Investigating the relationship between DM and gene expression profiles in patients with PDAC presents opportunities to improve overall survival in diabetics with PDAC.

Evidence Map of Pancreatic Surgery-A living systematic review with meta-analyses by the International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS).

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic surgery is associated with considerable morbidity and, consequently, offers a large and complex field for research. To prioritize relevant future scientific projects, it is of utmost importance to identify existing evidence and uncover research gaps. Thus, the aim of this project was to create a systematic and living Evidence Map of Pancreatic Surgery. METHODS: PubMed, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Web of Science were systematically searched for all randomized controlled trials and systematic reviews on pancreatic surgery. Outcomes from every existing randomized controlled trial were extracted, and trial quality was assessed. Systematic reviews were used to identify an absence of randomized controlled trials. Randomized controlled trials and systematic reviews on identical subjects were grouped according to research topics. A web-based evidence map modeled after a mind map was created to visualize existing evidence. Meta-analyses of specific outcomes of pancreatic surgery were performed for all research topics with more than 3 randomized controlled trials. For partial pancreatoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy, pooled benchmarks for outcomes were calculated with a 99% confidence interval. The evidence map undergoes regular updates. RESULTS: Out of 30,860 articles reviewed, 328 randomized controlled trials on 35,600 patients and 332 systematic reviews were included and grouped into 76 research topics. Most randomized controlled trials were from Europe (46%) and most systematic reviews were from Asia (51%). A living meta-analysis of 21 out of 76 research topics (28%) was performed and included in the web-based evidence map. Evidence gaps were identified in 11 out of 76 research topics (14%). The benchmark for mortality was 2% (99% confidence interval: 1%-2%) for partial pancreatoduodenectomy and <1% (99% confidence interval: 0%-1%) for distal pancreatectomy. The benchmark for overall complications was 53% (99%confidence interval: 46%-61%) for partial pancreatoduodenectomy and 59% (99% confidence interval: 44%-80%) for distal pancreatectomy. CONCLUSION: The International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery Evidence Map of Pancreatic Surgery, which is freely accessible via www.evidencemap.surgery and as a mobile phone app, provides a regularly updated overview of the available literature displayed in an intuitive fashion. Clinical decision making and evidence-based patient information are supported by the primary data provided, as well as by living meta-analyses. Researchers can use the systematic literature search and processed data for their own projects, and funding bodies can base their research priorities on evidence gaps that the map uncovers.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma survival in South Australia: time trends and impact of tumour location.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear how global developments in management of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have affected survival of Australian patients. This study aimed to determine trends in survival of PDAC over the last three decades in South Australia and to compare survival based on cancer location (head and uncinate process versus body and tail). METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort study to include all cases of PDAC reported to the South Australian (state) Cancer Registry from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: A total of 1051 patients diagnosed with PDAC between 1990 and 2017 were included. An overall increase in number of reported PDAC cases over time with more than a doubling in the crude rate from 1.73 to 3.50 per 100 000 persons between the decades 1990-1999 and 2010-2017 (P < 0.001) was noted. Overall median survival for PDAC was 7.4 months (95% confidence interval 6.8-8.0 months) and this has improved in recent decades. Overall median survival for PDAC affecting head and uncinate process of pancreas was significantly higher compared to body and tail (7.6 months versus 4.1 months; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study from South Australia demonstrates an increased reporting of PDAC over the last three decades. Although overall survival for patients with PDAC remains low, there has been a modest improvement in recent decades. The overall survival is significantly lower for patients with PDAC involving the body and tail compared to the head and uncinate process of pancreas. Risk factors for poor survival include the male gender and advancing age (>70 years).

Echocardiographic screening of pregnant women by non-physicians with remote interpretation in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Impact of heart disease (HD) on pregnancy is significant. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the feasibility of integrating screening echocardiography (echo) into the Brazilian prenatal primary care to assess HD prevalence. METHODS: Over 13 months, 20 healthcare workers acquired simplified echo protocols, utilizing hand-held machines (GE-VSCAN), in 22 primary care centres. Consecutive pregnant women unaware of HD underwent focused echo, remotely interpreted in USA and Brazil. Major HD was defined as structural valve abnormalities, more than mild valve dysfunction, ventricular systolic dysfunction/hypertrophy, or other major abnormalities. Screen-positive women were referred for standard echo. RESULTS: At total, 1 112 women underwent screening. Mean age was 27 ± 8 years, mean gestational age 22 ± 9 weeks. Major HD was found in 100 (9.0%) patients. More than mild mitral regurgitation was observed in 47 (4.2%), tricuspid regurgitation in 11 (1.0%), mild left ventricular dysfunction in 4 (0.4%), left ventricular hypertrophy in 2 (0.2%) and suspected rheumatic heart disease in 36 (3.2%): all, with mitral valve and two with aortic valve (AV) involvement. Other AV disease was observed in 11 (10%). In 56 screen-positive women undergoing standard echo, major HD was confirmed in 45 (80.4%): RHD findings in 12 patients (all with mitral valve and two with AV disease), mitral regurgitation in 40 (14 with morphological changes, 10 suggestive of rheumatic heart disease), other AV disease in two (mild/moderate regurgitation). CONCLUSIONS: Integration of echo screening into primary prenatal care is feasible in Brazil. However, the low prevalence of severe disease urges further investigations about the effectiveness of the strategy.