Reproductive suppression follows threats to child survival.

Natural selection presumably conserved mechanisms that allow females to block or terminate gestation when environmental circumstances threaten the survival of offspring. One example of this adaptive reproductive suppression, the Bruce effect, has been identified in several species, both in the laboratory and in the wild. Although descriptive epidemiology reports low fertility among women experiencing stressful circumstances, attempts to detect a Bruce effect in humans have been rare and limited. We contribute to this limited work by examining the relationship between the odds of child death and the sex ratio at birth in Sweden for the years 1751-1840. We find evidence of a generalized Bruce effect in humans in that unexpected changes in child mortality predict opposite unexpected changes in the secondary sex ratio in the following year, even after adjusting for period life expectancy. Our analysis broadens the scope of the Bruce effect literature to include humans, suggesting that women, through noncognitive decisional biology, adjust reproductive strategies and investments in response to changing environmental conditions.

Hormonal evidence supports the theory of selection in utero.

OBJECTIVES: Antagonists in the debate over whether the maternal stress response during pregnancy damages or culls fetuses have invoked the theory of selection in utero to support opposing positions. We describe how these opposing arguments arise from the same theory and offer a novel test to discriminate between them. Our test, rooted in reports from population endocrinology that human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) signals fetal fitness, contributes not only to the debate over the fetal origins of illness, but also to the more basic literature concerned with whether and how natural selection in utero affects contemporary human populations. METHODS: We linked maternal serum hCG measurements from prenatal screening tests with data from the California Department of Public Health birth registry for the years 2001-2007. We used time series analysis to test the association between the number of live-born male singletons and median hCG concentration among males in monthly gestational cohorts. RESULTS: Among the 1.56 million gestations in our analysis, we find that median hCG levels among male survivors of monthly conception cohorts rise as the number of male survivors falls. RESULTS: Elevated median hCG among relatively small male birth cohorts supports the theory of selection in utero and suggests that the maternal stress response culls cohorts in gestation by raising the fitness criterion for survival to birth.

Selection against small males in utero: a test of the Wells hypothesis.

BACKGROUND: The argument that women in stressful environments spontaneously abort their least fit fetuses enjoys wide dissemination despite the fact that several of its most intuitive predictions remain untested. The literature includes no tests, for example, of the hypothesis that these mechanisms select against small for gestational age (SGA) males. METHODS: We apply time-series modeling to 4.9 million California male term births to test the hypothesis that the rate of SGA infants in 1096 weekly birth cohorts varies inversely with labor market contraction, a known stressor of contemporary populations. RESULTS: We find support for the hypothesis that small size becomes less frequent among term male infants when the labor market contracts. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings contribute to the evidence supporting selection in utero. They also suggest that research into the association between maternal stress and adverse birth outcomes should acknowledge the possibility that fetal loss may affect findings and their interpretation. Strengths of our analyses include the large number and size of our birth cohorts and our control for autocorrelation. Weaknesses include that we, like nearly all researchers in the field, have no direct measure of fetal loss.

An exploration of secondary sex ratios among women diagnosed with anxiety disorders.

BACKGROUND: Theory suggests that natural selection conserved reactivity in part because highly reactive women spontaneously abort less fit conceptuses, particularly small males. Other literature argues that high reactivity manifests clinically as anxiety disorders. If true, births to women diagnosed with anxiety disorders should exhibit a low secondary sex ratio (i.e. ratio of male to female births). We explored whether births to women diagnosed with anxiety disorders exhibit a lower sex ratio than births to women diagnosed with other psychiatric disorders, or to women without mental health diagnoses. METHODS: We performed a case-control comparison of the secondary sex ratios among groups of women categorized by mental health diagnosis using birth records linked to data from California County Mental Health system records. We compared sex ratios among 5994 deliveries to mothers diagnosed with anxiety disorders, 23 443 deliveries to mothers diagnosed with other psychiatric disorders and 1 099 198 'comparison' births. RESULTS: Although comparison births exhibited a higher sex ratio than births to women diagnosed with anxiety disorders or with other diagnoses, differences were not statistically significant. Births to African American women diagnosed with anxiety disorders, however, exhibited sex ratios significantly lower than comparison births among African Americans (OR = 0.89, P = 0.038) or births to African American women with other mental health diagnoses (OR = 0.88, P = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS: We found that infants born to African American women diagnosed with anxiety disorders exhibited a significantly lower secondary sex ratio than reference groups. We urge confirmatory tests of our findings and discuss implications of the reactivity/anxiety hypothesis for psychiatry, obstetrics and public health.