Basic symptoms in young people at ultra-high risk of psychosis: Association with clinical characteristics and outcomes.

There has been limited research into the predictive value of basic symptoms and their relationship with other psychopathology in patients identified using the 'ultra high risk' (UHR) for psychosis approach. The current study investigated whether basic symptoms, specifically cognitive disturbances (COGDIS), were associated with a greater risk of transition to psychotic disorder and persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) at medium term follow-up (mean = 3.4 years) in UHR patients, as well as with general psychopathology at baseline. The sample included 304 UHR participants (mean age = 19.12 years) involved in an international multicenter trial of omega-3 fatty acids. UHR individuals who also met the COGDIS criteria (basic symptoms risk criteria) did not have a greater risk of transition than those who met the UHR criteria alone. However, meeting COGDIS risk criteria was associated with a greater likelihood of meeting the UHR attenuated psychotic symptoms risk group (i.e., having persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms) at 12-month follow-up (odds ratio = 1.85; 95% CI = 1.03, 3.32). Greater severity of cognitive basic symptoms was also independently associated with more severe general psychopathology at study entry. The findings do not support the notion that combined risk identification approaches (UHR and basic symptoms) aid in the identification of individuals at greatest risk of psychosis, although this interpretation is limited by the modest transition to psychosis rate (13%) and the time of follow up. However, the findings indicate that basic symptoms may be a clinically useful marker of more severe general psychopathology in UHR groups and risk for persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms.

Dynamic prediction of transition to psychosis using joint modelling.

Considerable research has been conducted seeking risk factors and constructing prediction models for transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR). Nearly all such research has only employed baseline predictors, i.e. data collected at the baseline time point, even though longitudinal data on relevant measures such as psychopathology have often been collected at various time points. Dynamic prediction, which is the updating of prediction at a post-baseline assessment using baseline and longitudinal data accumulated up to that assessment, has not been utilized in the UHR context. This study explored the use of dynamic prediction and determined if it could enhance the prediction of frank psychosis onset in UHR individuals. An emerging statistical methodology called joint modelling was used to implement the dynamic prediction. Data from the NEURAPRO study (n = 304 UHR individuals), an intervention study with transition to psychosis study as the primary outcome, were used to investigate dynamic predictors. Compared with the conventional approach of using only baseline predictors, dynamic prediction using joint modelling showed significantly better sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios. As dynamic prediction can provide an up-to-date prediction for each individual at each new assessment post entry, it can be a useful tool to help clinicians adjust their prognostic judgements based on the unfolding clinical symptomatology of the patients. This study has shown that a dynamic approach to psychosis prediction using joint modelling has the potential to aid clinicians in making decisions about the provision of timely and personalized treatment to patients concerned.

NEURAPRO: a multi-centre RCT of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids versus placebo in young people at ultra-high risk of psychotic disorders-medium-term follow-up and clinical course.

This study reports a medium-term follow-up of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR) patients. Primary outcomes of interest were transition to psychosis and symptomatic and functional outcome. A secondary aim was to investigate clinical predictors of medium-term outcome. Three hundred four UHR participants were recruited across 10 specialised early psychosis services in Australia, Asia, and Europe. The intervention consisted of 1.4 g/daily of omega-3 PUFA or placebo, plus up to 20 sessions of cognitive-behavioural case management (CBCM), over the 6-month study period, with participants receiving further CBCM sessions on basis of need between months 6-12. Mean time to follow-up was 3.4 (median = 3.3; SD = 0.9) years. There was a modest increase in transitions between 12-month and medium-term follow-up (11-13%) and substantial improvement in symptoms and functioning between baseline and follow-up, with no differences between the treatment groups. Most improvement had been achieved by end of the intervention. 55% of the sample received mental health treatment between end of intervention and follow-up. Omega-3 PUFA did not provide additional benefits to good quality psychosocial intervention over the medium term. Although most improvement had been achieved by end of intervention the substantial rates of post-intervention mental health service use indicate longer-term clinical need in UHR patients. The post-intervention phase treatment or the longer-term effect of CBCM, or a combination of the two, may have contributed to maintaining the gains achieved during the intervention phase and prevented significant deterioration after this time.

Omega-6 to omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid ratio and subsequent mood disorders in young people with at-risk mental states: a 7-year longitudinal study.

While cross-sectional studies suggest that patients with mood disorders have a higher ratio of omega-6 to omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and lower levels of omega-3 PUFAs, it is unknown if a high n-6/3 ratio indicates vulnerability for depression. We tested this hypothesis in a 7-year follow-up study of young individuals with an ultra-high risk (UHR) phenotype. We conducted a secondary analysis of the Vienna omega-3 study, a longitudinal study of omega-3 PUFAs in individuals at UHR for psychosis (n=69). Levels of n-6 and n-3 PUFAs were measured in the phosphatidylethanolamine fraction of erythrocyte membranes at intake into the study. Mood disorder diagnosis was ascertained with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR and confirmed by review of medical records and interviews of caregivers. A higher n-6/3 PUFA ratio at baseline predicted mood disorders in UHR individuals over a 7-year (median) follow-up (odds ratio=1.89, 95% CI=1.075-3.338, P=0.03). This association remained significant after adjustment for age, gender, smoking, severity of depressive symptoms at baseline and n-3 supplementation. Consistent results were obtained for individual PUFAs, including lower levels of eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid. The predictive capacity of these findings was specific to mood disorders as no associations were found for any other psychiatric disorder. To our knowledge, our data provide the first prospective evidence that the n-6/3 PUFA ratio is associated with an increased risk for mood disorders in young people exhibiting an UHR phenotype. These findings may have important implications for treatment and risk stratification beyond clinical characteristics.

Erythrocyte glutathione levels as long-term predictor of transition to psychosis.

A high proportion of individuals deemed at elevated risk for psychosis will actually never progress to develop the illness. Pharmaceutical intervention may not be necessary in these cases, and may in fact be damaging depending on the invasiveness of the treatment strategy. This highlights the need for biomarkers that are better able to reliably differentiate between at-risk individuals who will subsequently transition to psychosis and those who will not. Low glutathione (GSH) levels have been observed in schizophrenia and in patients with first-episode psychosis. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive value of erythrocyte GSH levels on the transition to psychosis in individuals at risk of developing the illness. Erythrocyte GSH levels were measured in 36 at-risk individuals, 15 of whom had transitioned to psychosis at the 7-year follow-up. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that transition to psychosis at the 7-year time point was significantly associated with low GSH levels at baseline. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve was 0.819, indicating that GSH can be considered a good predictor of outcome. Although these results need to be replicated, adding the criterion 'low erythrocyte GSH' to the set of criteria used to identify individuals at risk of psychosis may be indicated.

Prediction of transition from ultra-high risk to first-episode psychosis using a probabilistic model combining history, clinical assessment and fatty-acid biomarkers.

Current criteria identifying patients with ultra-high risk of psychosis (UHR) have low specificity, and less than one-third of UHR cases experience transition to psychosis within 3 years of initial assessment. We explored whether a Bayesian probabilistic multimodal model, combining baseline historical and clinical risk factors with biomarkers (oxidative stress, cell membrane fatty acids, resting quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG)), could improve this specificity. We analyzed data of a UHR cohort (n=40) with a 1-year transition rate of 28%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated for predictor variables with statistically significant receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), which excluded oxidative stress markers and qEEG parameters as significant predictors of transition. We clustered significant variables into historical (history of drug use), clinical (Positive and Negative Symptoms Scale positive, negative and general scores and Global Assessment of Function) and biomarker (total omega-3, nervonic acid) groups, and calculated the post-test probability of transition for each group and for group combinations using the odds ratio form of Bayes' rule. Combination of the three variable groups vastly improved the specificity of prediction (area under ROC=0.919, sensitivity=72.73%, specificity=96.43%). In this sample, our model identified over 70% of UHR patients who transitioned within 1 year, compared with 28% identified by standard UHR criteria. The model classified 77% of cases as very high or low risk (P>0.9, <0.1) based on history and clinical assessment, suggesting that a staged approach could be most efficient, reserving fatty-acid markers for 23% of cases remaining at intermediate probability following bedside interview.

Predictors of treatment response in young people at ultra-high risk for psychosis who received long-chain omega-3 fatty acids.

Previous efforts in the prospective evaluation of individuals who experience attenuated psychotic symptoms have attempted to isolate mechanisms underlying the onset of full-threshold psychotic illness. In contrast, there has been little research investigating specific predictors of positive outcomes. In this study, we sought to determine biological and clinical factors associated with treatment response, here indexed by functional improvement in a pre-post examination of a 12-week randomized controlled intervention in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis. Participants received either long-chain omega-3 (ω-3) polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) or placebo. To allow the determination of factors specifically relevant to each intervention, and to be able to contrast them, both treatment groups were investigated in parallel. Univariate linear regression analysis indicated that higher levels of erythrocyte membrane α-linolenic acid (ALA; the parent fatty acid of the ω-3 family) and more severe negative symptoms at baseline predicted subsequent functional improvement in the treatment group, whereas less severe positive symptoms and lower functioning at baseline were predictive in the placebo group. A multivariate machine learning analysis, known as Gaussian Process Classification (GPC), confirmed that baseline fatty acids predicted response to treatment in the ω-3 PUFA group with high levels of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. In addition, GPC revealed that baseline fatty acids were predictive in the placebo group. In conclusion, our investigation indicates that UHR patients with higher levels of ALA may specifically benefit from ω-3 PUFA supplementation. In addition, multivariate machine learning analysis suggests that fatty acids could potentially be used to inform prognostic evaluations and treatment decisions at the level of the individual. Notably, multiple statistical analyses were conducted in a relatively small sample, limiting the conclusions that can be drawn from what we believe to be a first-of-its-kind study. Additional studies with larger samples are therefore needed to evaluate the generalizability of these findings.

Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation changes intracellular phospholipase A2 activity and membrane fatty acid profiles in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

The identification of an ultra-high risk (UHR) profile for psychosis and a greater understanding of its prodrome have led to increasing interest in early intervention to delay or prevent the onset of psychotic illness. In a randomized placebo-controlled trial, we have identified long-chain ω-3 (ω-3) polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) supplementation as potentially useful, as it reduced the rate of transition to psychosis by 22.6% 1 year after baseline in a cohort of 81 young people at UHR of transition to psychosis. However, the mechanisms whereby the ω-3 PUFAs might be neuroprotective are incompletely understood. Here, we report on the effects of ω-3 PUFA supplementation on intracellular phospholipase A2 (inPLA(2)) activity, the main enzymes regulating phospholipid metabolism, as well as on peripheral membrane lipid profiles in the individuals who participated in this randomized placebo-controlled trial. Patients were studied cross-sectionally (n=80) and longitudinally (n=65) before and after a 12-week intervention with 1.2 g per day ω-3 PUFAs or placebo, followed by a 40-week observation period to establish the rates of transition to psychosis. We investigated inPLA(2) and erythrocyte membrane FAs in the treatment groups (ω-3 PUFAs vs placebo) and the outcome groups (psychotic vs non-psychotic). The levels of membrane ω-3 and ω-6 PUFAs and inPLA(2) were significantly related. Some of the significant associations (that is, long-chain ω-6 PUFAs, arachidonic acid) with inPLA(2) activity were in opposite directions in individuals who did (a positive correlation) and who did not (a negative correlation) transition to psychosis. Supplementation with ω-3 PUFA resulted in a significant decrease in inPLA(2) activity. We conclude that ω-3 PUFA supplementation may act by normalizing inPLA(2) activity and δ-6-desaturase-mediated metabolism of ω-3 and ω-6 PUFAs, suggesting their role in neuroprogression of psychosis.

St. John's wort (Hypericum perforatum)--is it safe during breastfeeding?

Both doctors and patients often treat postnatal depression with herbal preparations derived from St. John's wort. Because these preparations are available to patients as "natural" over-the-counter drugs for depression, they are popularly assumed to be safe. However, no systematic information exists regarding treatment of postnatal depression, infant's safety or pharmacokinetics of hypericum constituents in human breast milk or infant plasma. A mother with post-natal depression was admitted at our service. Her pharmacist had recommended taking a St. John's wort preparation three times a day (Jarsin 300, Lichtwer Pharma AG, Berlin, Germany). Four breast-milk samples (fore and hind milk) during an 18-hour period were analyzed to measure concentration of hypericin and hyperforin. Only hyperforin is excreted into breast milk at a low level, hyperforin and hypericin (two major active components) were below the lower limit of quantification (BLQ: below lower limit of quantification, LQ hypericin: 0.20 ng/ml, LQ hyperforin: 0.50 ng/ml) in this infant's plasma. No side effects were seen in the mother or infant. Before recommending St John's wort for the treatment of depression to women who breastfeed, long-term studies of outcome in infants are needed.