The Risk of and Associated Demographic and Laboratory Variables for Amputations for Inpatients with Diabetic Foot Ulcers.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, which disproportionately impacts underserved populations. This study aimed to provide data regarding the rates and outcomes of amputation in patients admitted with DFU in our health system, which cares for an ethnically diverse and underserved population. METHODS: This retrospective study examined the electronic medical records of adult patients hospitalized with DFU at 3 hospitals in our health system between June 1, 2016, and May 31, 2021. RESULTS: Among 650 patients admitted with DFU, 88% self-identified as non-White race. Male sex (odds ratio [OR], 0.62), low body mass index (OR, 0.98), and history of smoking (OR, 1.45) were significantly associated with amputation during the study period. A higher erythrocyte sedimentation rate (OR, 1.01), C-reactive protein level (OR, 1.05), and white blood cell count (OR, 1.11) and low albumin level (OR, 0.41) were found to be significantly associated with amputation versus no amputation during admission. The amputation risk during the index admission for DFU was 44%. CONCLUSION: Our study identified a high DFU-related amputation risk (44%) among adult patients who were mostly Black and/or Hispanic. The significant risk factors associated with DFU amputation included male sex, low body mass index, smoking, and high levels inflammation or low levels of albumin during admission. Many of these patients required multidisciplinary care and intravenous antibiotic therapy, necessitating a longer length of stay and high readmission rate.

Outcomes of New York City Care Calls: A Prospective Randomized Controlled Effectiveness Trial of Telephone-Delivered Type 2 Diabetes Self-Management Support.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the 12-month randomized controlled trial was to evaluate the effectiveness of a Telephonic Self-Management Support (T-SMS) program among adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: Eight hundred twelve adults with T2D participated in NYC Care Calls (mean age = 59.2, SD = 10.8; female = 57%; mean A1C = 9.3, SD = 1.8; Latino = 86%) and were randomly assigned to T-SMS or enhanced usual care (EUC). A1C (primary outcome), blood pressure, and body mass index (secondary outcomes) were extracted from electronic medical records. Secondary patient-reported outcomes, including depressive symptoms, diabetes distress, medication adherence, and self-management activities, were assessed by telephone in English or Spanish. For T-SMS, the number of assigned phone calls was based on baseline A1C, depressive symptoms, and/or diabetes distress. Analyses were conducted under the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: A1C decreased over 12 months in both T-SMS (0.72% percentage points; 95% CI, 0.53-0.91) and EUC (0.66% percentage points; 95% CI, 0.46-0.85; Ps < .001). Diabetes distress and self-management also improved over time in both arms (Ps < .05). Compared to EUC, participants in the T-SMS arm did not differ in outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The T-SMS and EUC groups were found not to have an appreciable outcome difference. It is unclear whether improvements in A1C across both conditions represent a secular trend or indicate that print-based educational intervention may have a positive impact on self-management and well-being.

Collaborative Modeling to Compare Different Breast Cancer Screening Strategies: A Decision Analysis for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The effects of breast cancer incidence changes and advances in screening and treatment on outcomes of different screening strategies are not well known. Objective: To estimate outcomes of various mammography screening strategies. Design, Setting, and Population: Comparison of outcomes using 6 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models and national data on breast cancer incidence, mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality in US women without previous cancer diagnoses. Exposures: Thirty-six screening strategies with varying start ages (40, 45, 50 years) and stop ages (74, 79 years) with digital mammography or digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) annually, biennially, or a combination of intervals. Strategies were evaluated for all women and for Black women, assuming 100% screening adherence and "real-world" treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lifetime benefits (breast cancer deaths averted, percent reduction in breast cancer mortality, life-years gained), harms (false-positive recalls, benign biopsies, overdiagnosis), and number of mammograms per 1000 women. Results: Biennial screening with DBT starting at age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years averted a median of 8.2, 7.5, or 6.7 breast cancer deaths per 1000 women screened, respectively, vs no screening. Biennial DBT screening at age 40 to 74 years (vs no screening) was associated with a 30.0% breast cancer mortality reduction, 1376 false-positive recalls, and 14 overdiagnosed cases per 1000 women screened. Digital mammography screening benefits were similar to those for DBT but had more false-positive recalls. Annual screening increased benefits but resulted in more false-positive recalls and overdiagnosed cases. Benefit-to-harm ratios of continuing screening until age 79 years were similar or superior to stopping at age 74. In all strategies, women with higher-than-average breast cancer risk, higher breast density, and lower comorbidity level experienced greater screening benefits than other groups. Annual screening of Black women from age 40 to 49 years with biennial screening thereafter reduced breast cancer mortality disparities while maintaining similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs as for all women. Conclusions: This modeling analysis suggests that biennial mammography screening starting at age 40 years reduces breast cancer mortality and increases life-years gained per mammogram. More intensive screening for women with greater risk of breast cancer diagnosis or death can maintain similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs and reduce mortality disparities.

Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality in the US-1975 to 2019.

Importance: Breast cancer mortality in the US declined between 1975 and 2019. The association of changes in metastatic breast cancer treatment with improved breast cancer mortality is unclear. Objective: To simulate the relative associations of breast cancer screening, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer with improved breast cancer mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using aggregated observational and clinical trial data on the dissemination and effects of screening and treatment, 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models simulated US breast cancer mortality rates. Death due to breast cancer, overall and by estrogen receptor and ERBB2 (formerly HER2) status, among women aged 30 to 79 years in the US from 1975 to 2019 was simulated. Exposures: Screening mammography, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-estimated age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate associated with screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment relative to the absence of these exposures was assessed, as was model-estimated median survival after breast cancer metastatic recurrence. Results: The breast cancer mortality rate in the US (age adjusted) was 48/100 000 women in 1975 and 27/100 000 women in 2019. In 2019, the combination of screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment was associated with a 58% reduction (model range, 55%-61%) in breast cancer mortality. Of this reduction, 29% (model range, 19%-33%) was associated with treatment of metastatic breast cancer, 47% (model range, 35%-60%) with treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and 25% (model range, 21%-33%) with mammography screening. Based on simulations, the greatest change in survival after metastatic recurrence occurred between 2000 and 2019, from 1.9 years (model range, 1.0-2.7 years) to 3.2 years (model range, 2.0-4.9 years). Median survival for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/ERBB2-positive breast cancer improved by 2.5 years (model range, 2.0-3.4 years), whereas median survival for ER-/ERBB2- breast cancer improved by 0.5 years (model range, 0.3-0.8 years). Conclusions and Relevance: According to 4 simulation models, breast cancer screening and treatment in 2019 were associated with a 58% reduction in US breast cancer mortality compared with interventions in 1975. Simulations suggested that treatment for stage I to III breast cancer was associated with approximately 47% of the mortality reduction, whereas treatment for metastatic breast cancer was associated with 29% of the reduction and screening with 25% of the reduction.

Retrospective cohort study of wrong-patient imaging order errors: how many reach the patient?

Studying near-miss errors is essential to preventing errors from reaching patients. When an error is committed, it may be intercepted (near-miss) or it will reach the patient; estimates of the proportion that reach the patient vary widely. To better understand this relationship, we conducted a retrospective cohort study using two objective measures to identify wrong-patient imaging order errors involving radiation, estimating the proportion of errors that are intercepted and those that reach the patient. This study was conducted at a large integrated healthcare system using data from 1 January to 31 December 2019. The study used two outcome measures of wrong-patient orders: (1) wrong-patient orders that led to misadministration of radiation reported to the New York Patient Occurrence Reporting and Tracking System (NYPORTS) (misadministration events); and (2) wrong-patient orders identified by the Wrong-Patient Retract-and-Reorder (RAR) measure, a measure identifying orders placed for a patient, retracted and rapidly reordered by the same clinician on a different patient (near-miss events). All imaging orders that involved radiation were extracted retrospectively from the healthcare system data warehouse. Among 293 039 total eligible orders, 151 were wrong-patient orders (3 misadministration events, 148 near-miss events), for an overall rate of 51.5 per 100 000 imaging orders involving radiation placed on the wrong patient. Of all wrong-patient imaging order errors, 2% reached the patient, translating to 50 near-miss events for every 1 error that reached the patient. This proportion provides a more accurate and reliable estimate and reinforces the utility of systematic measure of near-miss errors as an outcome for preventative interventions.

Benefits and Harms of Mammography Screening in 75 + Women to Inform Shared Decision-making: a Simulation Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend shared decision-making (SDM) around mammography screening for women ≥ 75 years old. OBJECTIVE: To use microsimulation modeling to estimate the lifetime benefits and harms of screening women aged 75, 80, and 85 years based on their individual risk factors (family history, breast density, prior biopsy) and comorbidity level to support SDM in clinical practice. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We adapted two established Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models to evaluate the remaining lifetime benefits and harms of screening U.S. women born in 1940, at decision ages 75, 80, and 85 years considering their individual risk factors and comorbidity levels. Results were summarized for average- and higher-risk women (defined as having breast cancer family history, heterogeneously dense breasts, and no prior biopsy, 5% of the population). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Remaining lifetime breast cancers detected, deaths (breast cancer/other causes), false positives, and overdiagnoses for average- and higher-risk women by age and comorbidity level for screening (one or five screens) vs. no screening per 1000 women. RESULTS: Compared to stopping, one additional screen at 75 years old resulted in six and eight more breast cancers detected (10% overdiagnoses), one and two fewer breast cancer deaths, and 52 and 59 false positives per 1000 average- and higher-risk women without comorbidities, respectively. Five additional screens over 10 years led to 23 and 31 additional breast cancer cases (29-31% overdiagnoses), four and 15 breast cancer deaths avoided, and 238 and 268 false positives per 1000 average- and higher-risk screened women without comorbidities, respectively. Screening women at older ages (80 and 85 years old) and high comorbidity levels led to fewer breast cancer deaths and a higher percentage of overdiagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: Simulation models show that continuing screening in women ≥ 75 years old results in fewer breast cancer deaths but more false positive tests and overdiagnoses. Together, clinicians and 75 + women may use model output to weigh the benefits and harms of continued screening.

Population simulation modeling of disparities in US breast cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: Populations of African American or Black women have persistently higher breast cancer mortality than the overall US population, despite having slightly lower age-adjusted incidence. METHODS: Three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation teams modeled cancer mortality disparities between Black female populations and the overall US population. Model inputs used racial group-specific data from clinical trials, national registries, nationally representative surveys, and observational studies. Analyses began with cancer mortality in the overall population and sequentially replaced parameters for Black populations to quantify the percentage of modeled breast cancer morality disparities attributable to differences in demographics, incidence, access to screening and treatment, and variation in tumor biology and response to therapy. RESULTS: Results were similar across the 3 models. In 2019, racial differences in incidence and competing mortality accounted for a net ‒1% of mortality disparities, while tumor subtype and stage distributions accounted for a mean of 20% (range across models = 13%-24%), and screening accounted for a mean of 3% (range = 3%-4%) of the modeled mortality disparities. Treatment parameters accounted for the majority of modeled mortality disparities: mean = 17% (range = 16%-19%) for treatment initiation and mean = 61% (range = 57%-63%) for real-world effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Our model results suggest that changes in policies that target improvements in treatment access could increase breast cancer equity. The findings also highlight that efforts must extend beyond policies targeting equity in treatment initiation to include high-quality treatment completion. This research will facilitate future modeling to test the effects of different specific policy changes on mortality disparities.

Permanent hypothyroidism following immune checkpoint inhibitors induced thyroiditis may be associated with improved survival: results of an exploratory study.

Background: Immune-related endocrinopathies are common after immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy, among which destructive thyroiditis is the most prevalent. Improved survival outcomes have been associated with immune-related adverse events. We aimed to compare the clinical course and biochemical parameters of two subtypes of ICI-related destructive thyroiditis: a transient thyrotoxicosis that reverts to either euthyroidism (TT; transient thyroiditis) versus progression to permanent hypothyroidism (PH), and to identify prognostic markers in cancer patients receiving ICI therapy who developed DT. Methods: This retrospective observational study included 124 patients who developed a transient thyrotoxicosis due to a destructive thyroiditis after ICI therapy from January 1, 2016 to April 30, 2021 at the Montefiore Medical Center. Patients were categorized as either TT or PH based on spontaneous renormalization of the TSH or the permanent need for thyroid hormone replacement, respectively. Thyroid hormone and antibody levels, serum inflammatory markers, eosinophils, and metabolic uptake of the thyroid on PET imaging, each corresponding closest to a suppressed TSH, were characterized. Survival from TT and PH were also analyzed. Results: Of the 124 patients, 53 developed PH and 71 developed TT. The PH group developed thyrotoxicosis at a median of 42 days from the first ICI dose while the TT group took significantly longer at 56 days. Thyroidal PET uptake was increased in 18.9% of the PH group versus 6.0% of the TT group (P=0.04). Three different survival models consistently demonstrated a trend towards increased survival in the PH group, compared to the TT group. Conclusion: Our results suggest that PH developing after ICI-induced destructive thyroiditis may be associated with a more robust inflammatory and antitumor response to ICI therapy. The results suggests that PH may be a potential clinical predictor of improved survival.

Effect of restricting electronic health records on clinician efficiency: substudy of a randomized clinical trial.

A prior randomized controlled trial (RCT) showed no significant difference in wrong-patient errors between clinicians assigned to a restricted electronic health record (EHR) configuration (limiting to 1 record open at a time) versus an unrestricted EHR configuration (allowing up to 4 records open concurrently). However, it is unknown whether an unrestricted EHR configuration is more efficient. This substudy of the RCT compared clinician efficiency between EHR configurations using objective measures. All clinicians who logged onto the EHR during the substudy period were included. The primary outcome measure of efficiency was total active minutes per day. Counts were extracted from audit log data, and mixed-effects negative binomial regression was performed to determine differences between randomized groups. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Among a total of 2556 clinicians, there was no significant difference between unrestricted and restricted groups in total active minutes per day (115.1 vs 113.3 min, respectively; IRR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.93-1.06), overall or by clinician type and practice area.

Effective Inhibition of Thyroid Antigen Presentation Using Retro-Inverso Peptides in Experimental Autoimmune Thyroiditis: A Pathway Toward Immune Therapies of Thyroid Autoimmunity.

Background: Autoimmune thyroid diseases (AITD) represent the most common autoimmune diseases. However, current therapies focus on relieving the symptoms instead of curing AITD, and new therapies to reverse the autoimmune attack on the thyroid are needed. HLA-DRß1-Arg74 is the key HLA class II allele that triggers AITD by presenting pathogenic thyroglobulin (Tg) peptides that activate thyroid self-reactive T cells. We hypothesized that blocking the presentation of Tg peptides to T cells within the HLA-DRß1-Arg74 peptide binding cleft could reverse the autoimmune response to the thyroid in AITD. Methods: The approach we used to block Tg peptide presentation within HLA-DRß1-Arg74 is to design retro-inverso D-amino acid (RID) peptides that have high affinity to the HLA-DRß1-Arg74 peptide binding pocket. Results: By using computational approaches and molecular dynamics simulations, we designed two RID peptides, RT-15 and VT-15, that blocked peptide binding to recombinant HLA-DRß1-Arg74 molecule, as well as T cell activation in vitro. Furthermore, RT-15 and VT-15 blocked in vivo T cell activation by thyroglobulin in humanized NOD-DR3 mice induced with experimental autoimmune thyroiditis. Conclusions: In summary, we discovered two RID peptides that block thyroglobulin peptide binding to HLA-DRß1-Arg74 and their presentation to T cells in AITD. These findings set the stage for a personalized medicine therapeutic approach for AITD patients who carry the DRß1-Arg74 allele. This antigen-specific therapeutic strategy can potentially be extended to other autoimmune diseases.

Reassessing the Benefits and Harms of Risk-Reducing Medication Considering the Persistent Risk of Breast Cancer Mortality in Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: Recent studies, including a meta-analysis of 88 trials, have shown higher than expected rates of recurrence and death in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. These new findings suggest a need to re-evaluate the use of risk-reducing medication to avoid invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death in high-risk women. METHODS: We adapted an established Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network model to evaluate the lifetime benefits and harms of risk-reducing medication in women with a ≥ 3% 5-year risk of developing breast cancer according to the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium risk calculator. Model input parameters were derived from meta-analyses, clinical trials, and large observational data. We evaluated the effects of 5 years of risk-reducing medication (tamoxifen/aromatase inhibitors) with annual screening mammography ± magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) compared with no screening, MRI, or risk-reducing medication. The modeled outcomes included invasive breast cancer, breast cancer death, side effects, false positives, and overdiagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses for individual risk factors such as age, family history, and prior biopsy. RESULTS: Risk-reducing tamoxifen with annual screening (± MRI) decreased the risk of invasive breast cancer by 40% and breast cancer death by 57%, compared with no tamoxifen or screening. This is equivalent to an absolute reduction of 95 invasive breast cancers, and 42 breast cancer deaths per 1,000 high-risk women. However, these drugs are associated with side effects. For example, tamoxifen could increase the number of endometrial cancers up to 11 per 1,000 high-risk women. Benefits and harms varied by individual characteristics. CONCLUSION: The addition of risk-reducing medication to screening could further decrease the risk of breast cancer death. Clinical guidelines for high-risk women should consider integrating shared decision making for risk-reducing medication and screening on the basis of individual risk factors.

In-Hospital Hyperglycemia Is Associated With Worse Outcomes in Patients Admitted With COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes and the outpatient diabetes treatment regimen have been identified as risk factors for poor outcomes in patients with sepsis. However, little is known about the effect of tight inpatient glycemic control in the setting of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, we examined the effect of hyperglycemia in patients with diabetes hospitalized because of COVID-19. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed data from 1,938 COVID-19 patients with diabetes hospitalized for COVID-19 from March to May 2020 at a large academic medical center in New York City. Patients were divided into two groups based on their inpatient glycemic values, and a Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the independent association of inpatient glucose levels with mortality (primary outcome) and the risk of requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) (secondary outcome). RESULTS: In our analysis, 32% of the patients were normoglycemic and 68% hyperglycemic. Moreover, 31% of the study subjects died during hospitalization, and 14% required MV, with inpatient hyperglycemia being significantly associated with both mortality and the requirement for MV. Additionally, in the Cox regression analysis, after adjustment for potential confounders, including age, sex, race, BMI, HbA1c, comorbidities, inflammatory markers, and corticosteroid therapy, patients with uncontrolled hyperglycemia had a higher risk of dying (hazard ratio [HR] 1.54, 95% CI 1.00-2.36, P = 0.049) and of requiring MV (HR 4.41, 95% CI 1.52-2.81, P = 0.006) than those with normoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: A tight control of inpatient hyperglycemia may be an effective method for improving outcomes in patients with diabetes hospitalized for COVID-19.

Effects of a Sleep Health Education Program for Children and Parents on Child Sleep Duration and Difficulties: A Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Preschool-aged children often lack sufficient sleep and experience sleep difficulties. A consistent bedtime routine, falling asleep alone, and other sleep practices reduce difficulties and increase sleep duration. Objective: To evaluate the effects of a preschool-based sleep health literacy program on children's sleep duration and difficulties and on parent sleep knowledge, attitudes, self-efficacy, and beliefs 9 and 12 months after the program. Design, Setting, and Participants: This stepped-wedge cluster randomized clinical trial was implemented across the 2018-2019 school year. Head Start preschool personnel delivered interventions and collected outcomes data at baseline and 4 follow-ups. Seven Head Start agencies across New York State were randomized to implement interventions in either fall 2018 or winter and spring 2019. Outcomes were ascertained at 9- and 12-month follow-up. From March 19 through September 28, 2018, Head Start staff recruited (a) English- or Spanish-speaking parents (b) of children 3 years of age on or about September 2018 (c) who planned to remain at the site through the school year. Altogether, 519 parent-child (aged 3 years) dyads completed baseline and (any) follow-up data. Interventions: A 2-week classroom curriculum for children, a 1-hour parent workshop, and 1-on-1 parent discussions at home or school. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were the pre- vs postintervention differences measured at baseline and 9-month follow-up for parent-reported child school-night sleep duration per sleep logs, mild or moderate sleep difficulties per a validated questionnaire, and the total and domain scores for parent sleep knowledge, attitudes, self-efficacy, and beliefs. A modified intention-to-treat analysis excluding participants with only baseline data was used. Results: The mean (SD) age at enrollment of 519 children was 2.7 (0.1) years, 264 (50.9%) were girls, 196 (37.8%) lived in Spanish-speaking households, and 5 (0.9%) identified as Alaskan Native or American Indian, 17 (3.2%) as Asian American or Pacific Islander, 57 (10.8%) as Black, 199 (37.8%) as White, and 63 (12.0%) as other. Mean sleep durations increased nonsignificantly from baseline by 5.6 minutes (95% CI, -2.3 to 13.6 minutes; P = .17) at 9-month follow-up and by 6.8 minutes (95% CI, 0.2-13.7 minutes; P = .06) at 12-month follow-up. There was a slight improvement in parental knowledge (1.13 unit increase from baseline; 95% CI, 0.13-2.12 units), but no significant outcomes for parent sleep attitudes (0.16 unit increase from baseline; 95% CI, -0.46 to 0.77 units), self-efficacy (-0.13 unit decrease from baseline; 95% CI, -1.02 to 0.76 units) and beliefs (-0.20 unit decrease from baseline; 95% CI, -0.56 to 0.16 units). Intervention effects for child sleep difficulties were not significant (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.62-2.09). Fewer than 1 in 4 parents accurately perceived their child's sleep difficulty at 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this large pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster randomized clinical trial, albeit largely negative, may have implications for the sustained impact, focus, and potential population-level effects of sleep education programs. Future research should evaluate the effects of more recurrent programming that emphasizes recognition of sleep problems and whether small increments of sleep across months and years in early childhood have meaningful effects. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03556462.

Cost-effective analysis of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in patients with poor baseline modified Rankin Score (mRS).

Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) has been established as a standard of care for patients with acute ischemic stroke for the past five years. However, the direct benefits of this treatment in patients with baseline disability remains unclear. This study aims to elucidate the cost impact of performing MT on patients with moderate-to-severe baseline disability to work towards an optimized system of care for acute ischemic stroke. We developed a Markov economic model with a life-time horizon analysis of costs associated with mechanical thrombectomy in patients grouped on baseline disability as defined by modified Rankin Score. Our clinical and economic data is based on an American payer perspective. Our results identified a marginal cost-effective ratio (mCER) of $18,835.00 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) when mechanical thrombectomy is reserved as a treatment only for patients with no-to-minimal baseline disability as compared to those with any level of baseline disability. Our results provide a framework for these future studies and highlight key sectors that drive cost in the surgical treatment and life-long care of patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Prevalence and correlates of suicidal ideation in World Trade Center responders: Results from a population-based health monitoring cohort.

BACKGROUND: Suicidal ideation (SI) is an early risk factor for suicide among disaster responders. To date, however, no known study has examined the prevalence, and pre-, peri-, and post-disaster risk correlates of SI in World Trade Center (WTC) responders, one of the largest disaster response populations in U.S. METHODS: The prevalence, and pre-, peri- and post-event correlates of SI were assessed in a population-based health monitoring cohort of 14,314 police responders and 16,389 non-traditional responders (e.g., construction workers) who engaged in response, recovery, and clean-up efforts following the 9/11/2001 terrorist attacks on the WTC. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify correlates and individual psychiatric symptoms associated with SI in each group. RESULTS: A total 12.5% of non-traditional and 2.2% of police WTC responders reported SI. Depression, functional impairment, alcohol use problems, and lower family support while working at the WTC site were associated with SI in both groups of responders. Symptom-level analyses revealed that three symptoms accounted for approximately half of the variance in SI for both groups-feeling bad about oneself, or that one has let down oneself or family; feeling down, depressed, or hopeless; and sense of foreshortened future (44.7% in non-traditional and 71% in police). LIMITATIONS: Use of self-report measures and potentially limited generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: SI is prevalent in WTC disaster responders, particularly non-traditional responders. Post-9/11 psychiatric symptoms reflecting guilt, shame, hopelessness, and associated functional impairment are most strongly linked to SI, suggesting that interventions targeting these factors may help mitigate suicide risk in this population.

Breast Cancer Screening Strategies for Women With ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 Pathogenic Variants: A Comparative Modeling Analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Screening mammography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are recommended for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. However, there are few data to guide screening regimens for these women. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening strategies using mammography and MRI at various start ages for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This comparative modeling analysis used 2 established breast cancer microsimulation models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) to evaluate different screening strategies. Age-specific breast cancer risks were estimated using aggregated data from the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility (CARRIERS) Consortium for 32 247 cases and 32 544 controls in 12 population-based studies. Data on screening performance for mammography and MRI were estimated from published literature. The models simulated US women with ATM, CHEK2, or PALB2 pathogenic variants born in 1985. INTERVENTIONS: Screening strategies with combinations of annual mammography alone and with MRI starting at age 25, 30, 35, or 40 years until age 74 years. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Estimated lifetime breast cancer mortality reduction, life-years gained, breast cancer deaths averted, total screening examinations, false-positive screenings, and benign biopsies per 1000 women screened. Results are reported as model mean values and ranges. RESULTS: The mean model-estimated lifetime breast cancer risk was 20.9% (18.1%-23.7%) for women with ATM pathogenic variants, 27.6% (23.4%-31.7%) for women with CHEK2 pathogenic variants, and 39.5% (35.6%-43.3%) for women with PALB2 pathogenic variants. Across pathogenic variants, annual mammography alone from 40 to 74 years was estimated to reduce breast cancer mortality by 36.4% (34.6%-38.2%) to 38.5% (37.8%-39.2%) compared with no screening. Screening with annual MRI starting at 35 years followed by annual mammography and MRI at 40 years was estimated to reduce breast cancer mortality by 54.4% (54.2%-54.7%) to 57.6% (57.2%-58.0%), with 4661 (4635-4688) to 5001 (4979-5023) false-positive screenings and 1280 (1272-1287) to 1368 (1362-1374) benign biopsies per 1000 women. Annual MRI starting at 30 years followed by mammography and MRI at 40 years was estimated to reduce mortality by 55.4% (55.3%-55.4%) to 59.5% (58.5%-60.4%), with 5075 (5057-5093) to 5415 (5393-5437) false-positive screenings and 1439 (1429-1449) to 1528 (1517-1538) benign biopsies per 1000 women. When starting MRI at 30 years, initiating annual mammography starting at 30 vs 40 years did not meaningfully reduce mean mortality rates (0.1% [0.1%-0.2%] to 0.3% [0.2%-0.3%]) but was estimated to add 649 (602-695) to 650 (603-696) false-positive screenings and 58 (41-76) to 59 (41-76) benign biopsies per 1000 women. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This analysis suggests that annual MRI screening starting at 30 to 35 years followed by annual MRI and mammography at 40 years may reduce breast cancer mortality by more than 50% for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. In the setting of MRI screening, mammography prior to 40 years may offer little additional benefit.

Altered gene expression and PTSD symptom dimensions in World Trade Center responders.

Despite experiencing a significant trauma, only a subset of World Trade Center (WTC) rescue and recovery workers developed posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Identification of biomarkers is critical to the development of targeted interventions for treating disaster responders and potentially preventing the development of PTSD in this population. Analysis of gene expression from these individuals can help in identifying biomarkers of PTSD. We established a well-phenotyped sample of 371 WTC responders, recruited from a longitudinal WTC responder cohort using stratified random sampling, by obtaining blood, self-reported and clinical interview data. Using bulk RNA-sequencing from whole blood, we examined the association between gene expression and WTC-related PTSD symptom severity on (i) highest lifetime Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS) score, (ii) past-month CAPS score, and (iii) PTSD symptom dimensions using a 5-factor model of re-experiencing, avoidance, emotional numbing, dysphoric arousal and anxious arousal symptoms. We corrected for sex, age, genotype-derived principal components and surrogate variables. Finally, we performed a meta-analysis with existing PTSD studies (total N = 1016), using case/control status as the predictor and correcting for these variables. We identified 66 genes significantly associated with total highest lifetime CAPS score (FDR-corrected p < 0.05), and 31 genes associated with total past-month CAPS score. Our more granular analyses of PTSD symptom dimensions identified additional genes that did not reach statistical significance in our analyses with total CAPS scores. In particular, we identified 82 genes significantly associated with lifetime anxious arousal symptoms. Several genes significantly associated with multiple PTSD symptom dimensions and total lifetime CAPS score (SERPINA1, RPS6KA1, and STAT3) have been previously associated with PTSD. Geneset enrichment of these findings has identified pathways significant in metabolism, immune signaling, other psychiatric disorders, neurological signaling, and cellular structure. Our meta-analysis revealed 10 genes that reached genome-wide significance, all of which were downregulated in cases compared to controls (CIRBP, TMSB10, FCGRT, CLIC1, RPS6KB2, HNRNPUL1, ALDOA, NACA, ZNF429 and COPE). Additionally, cellular deconvolution highlighted an enrichment in CD4 T cells and eosinophils in responders with PTSD compared to controls. The distinction in significant genes between total lifetime CAPS score and the anxious arousal symptom dimension of PTSD highlights a potential biological difference in the mechanism underlying the heterogeneity of the PTSD phenotype. Future studies should be clear about methods used to analyze PTSD status, as phenotypes based on PTSD symptom dimensions may yield different gene sets than combined CAPS score analysis. Potential biomarkers implicated from our meta-analysis may help improve therapeutic target development for PTSD.

Breast Cancer Screening Among Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated Without Chest Radiation: Clinical Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Early initiation of breast cancer screening is recommended for high-risk women, including survivors of childhood cancer treated with chest radiation. Recent studies suggest that female survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma treated without chest radiation are also at elevated early onset breast cancer risk. However, the potential clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of early breast cancer screening among these women are uncertain. METHODS: Using data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we adapted 2 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation models to reflect the elevated risks of breast cancer and competing mortality among leukemia and sarcoma survivors. Costs and utility weights were based on published studies and databases. Outcomes included breast cancer deaths averted, false-positive screening results, benign biopsies, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: In the absence of screening, the lifetime risk of dying from breast cancer among survivors was 6.8% to 7.0% across models. Early initiation of annual mammography with breast magnetic resonance imaging screening between ages 25 and 40 years would avert 52.6% to 64.3% of breast cancer deaths. When costs and quality-of-life impacts were considered, screening starting at age 40 years was the only strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained cost-effectiveness threshold ($27 680 to $44 380 per QALY gained across models). CONCLUSIONS: Among survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma, early initiation of breast cancer screening at age 40 years may reduce breast cancer deaths by half and is cost-effective. These findings could help inform screening guidelines for survivors treated without chest radiation.

Simulation modeling of breast cancer endocrine therapy duration by patient and tumor characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Extending endocrine therapy from 5 to 10 years is recommended for women with invasive estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers. We evaluated the benefits and harms of the five additional years of therapy. METHODS: An established Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network (CISNET) model used a lifetime horizon with national and clinical trial data on treatment efficacy and adverse events and other-cause mortality among multiple birth cohorts of U.S. women ages 25-79 newly diagnosed with ER+, non-metastatic breast cancer. We assumed 100% use of therapy. Outcomes included life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and breast cancer mortality. Results were discounted at 3%. Sensitivity analyses tested a 15-year time horizon and alternative assumptions. RESULTS: Extending tamoxifen therapy duration among women ages 25-49 reduced the lifetime probability of breast cancer death from 11.9% to 9.3% (absolute difference 2.6%). This translates to a gain of 0.77 LYs (281 days)/woman (undiscounted). Adverse events reduce this gain to 0.44 QALYs and after discounting, gains are 0.20 QALYs (73 days)/woman. Extended aromatase inhibitor therapy in women 50-79 had small absolute benefits and gains were offset by adverse events (loss of 0.06 discounted QALYs). There were greater gains with extended endocrine therapy for women with node-positive versus negative cancers, but only women ages 25-49 and 50-59 had a net QALY gain. All gains were reduced with less than 100% treatment completion. CONCLUSION: The extension of endocrine therapy from 5 to 10 years modestly improved lifetime breast cancer outcomes, but in some women, treatment-related adverse events may outweigh benefits.

Low Hospice Utilization in New York State: Comparisons Using National Data.

CONTEXT: Hospice utilization in New York State (NYS) is low compared to the rest of the U.S. OBJECTIVES: The first part of a mixed-methods study elicited information from New York State stakeholders and identified 54 hospice-related barriers in nine categories, some specific to NYS. This second part used national data to examine the differences between NYS and the rest of the country by evaluating the variables associated with low NYS hospice utilization. METHODS: Ten Medicare or publicly available datasets provided data from the year prior to death for all traditional Medicare-insured patients dying in 2018. Multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with differences in hospice enrollment or length of stay between NYS and the rest of the country. RESULTS: The NYS population was relatively older, included more women and minorities, had higher socioeconomic status (SES), and saw more physicians during the last two years of life. NYS had more physicians, more skilled nursing facility (SNF) beds, and fewer for-profit hospitals, SNFs, home care agencies, and hospice agencies. In multivariate analyses, lower NYS hospice utilization was associated with higher SES; more physicians seen during the last two years of life; more SNF beds and fewer for-profit SNF facilities; and fewer hospice agencies. CONCLUSION: NYS's low hospice utilization is independently associated with diverse factors, including those related to the health care system. Combined with information from stakeholders, these findings may help target, and inform initiatives to improve hospice utilization.