Tipping point realized in cod fishery.

Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change.

Predation risk triggers copepod small-scale behavior in the Baltic Sea.

Predators not only have direct impact on biomass but also indirect, non-consumptive effects on the behavior their prey organisms. A characteristic response of zooplankton in aquatic ecosystems is predator avoidance by diel vertical migration (DVM), a behavior which is well studied on the population level. A wide range of behavioral diversity and plasticity has been observed both between- as well as within-species and, hence, investigating predator-prey interactions at the individual level seems therefore essential for a better understanding of zooplankton dynamics. Here we applied an underwater imaging instrument, the video plankton recorder (VPR), which allows the non-invasive investigation of individual, diel adaptive behavior of zooplankton in response to predators in the natural oceanic environment, providing a finely resolved and continuous documentation of the organisms' vertical distribution. Combing observations of copepod individuals observed with the VPR and hydroacoustic estimates of predatory fish biomass, we here show (i) a small-scale DVM of ovigerous Pseudocalanus acuspes females in response to its main predators, (ii) in-situ observations of a direct short-term reaction of the prey to the arrival of the predator and (iii) in-situ evidence of pronounced individual variation in this adaptive behavior with potentially strong effects on individual performance and ecosystem functioning.

Effect of Cold Atmospheric Plasma Therapy vs Standard Therapy Placebo on Wound Healing in Patients With Diabetic Foot Ulcers: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Diabetic foot ulcers are a common complication of diabetes and require specialized treatment. Cold atmospheric plasma (CAP) has been associated with benefits in wound infection and healing in previous smaller series of case reports. Yet the effect of CAP compared with standard care therapy in wound healing in diabetic foot ulcers remains to be studied. Objective: To determine whether the application of CAP accelerates wound healing in diabetic foot ulcers compared with standard care therapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled, patient-blinded clinical trial was conducted at 2 clinics with recruitment from August 17, 2016, to April 20, 2019. Patients were scheduled to remain in follow-up until April 30, 2024. Patients with diabetes and diabetic foot ulcers described using the combined Wagner-Armstrong classification of 1B or 2B (superficial or infected diabetic foot ulcers extending to tendon) were eligible. A patient could participate with 1 or more wounds in both groups in both intervention and control groups. Wounds were randomized separately, allowing a participant to be treated several times within the study following a 2 × 2 × 2 randomization strata considering sex, smoking status, and age (≤68 years and >68 years). Interventions: Standard care treatment with 8 applications of either CAP generated from argon gas in an atmospheric pressure plasma jet or 8 applications of placebo treatment in a patient-blinded manner. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary end points were reduction in wound size, clinical infection, and microbial load compared with treatment start. Secondary end points were time to relevant wound reduction (>10%), reduction of infection, parameters of patient's well-being, and treatment-associated adverse events. Results: Of 65 diabetic foot ulcer wounds from 45 patients assessed for study, 33 wounds from 29 patients were randomized to CAP and 32 wounds from 28 to placebo, with 62 wounds from 43 patients (31 wounds per group) included for final evaluation (mean [SD] age, 68.5 [9.1] years for full sample). Four patients with 5 wounds of 31 (16.1%) wounds in the CAP group and 3 patients with 4 wounds of 31 (13%) wounds in the placebo group were active smokers. CAP therapy yielded a significant increase in wound healing, both in total mean (SD) area reduction (CAP vs placebo relative units, -26.31 [11.72]; P = .03) and mean (SD) time to relevant wound area reduction (CAP vs placebo relative units, 10% from baseline, 1.60 [0.58]; P = .009). Reduction of infection and microbial load was not significantly different between CAP and placebo. No therapy-related adverse events occurred during therapy; patient's perceptions during therapy were comparable. Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, CAP therapy resulted in beneficial effects in chronic wound treatment in terms of wound surface reduction and time to wound closure independent from background infection. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04205942.

Ocean warming and acidification may drag down the commercial Arctic cod fishery by 2100.

The Arctic Ocean is an early warning system for indicators and effects of climate change. We use a novel combination of experimental and time-series data on effects of ocean warming and acidification on the commercially important Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) to incorporate these physiological processes into the recruitment model of the fish population. By running an ecological-economic optimization model, we investigate how the interaction of ocean warming, acidification and fishing pressure affects the sustainability of the fishery in terms of ecological, economic, social and consumer-related indicators, ranging from present day conditions up to future climate change scenarios. We find that near-term climate change will benefit the fishery, but under likely future warming and acidification this large fishery is at risk of collapse by the end of the century, even with the best adaptation effort in terms of reduced fishing pressure.

Can we shop ourselves to a clean sea? An experimental panel approach to assess the persuasiveness of private labels as a private governance approach to microplastic pollution.

In this study, we conducted an experimental panel survey in Norway, Germany and Portugal to explore consumers' willingness to pay more for products that are certified microplastic free. This is placed within the context of private certification schemes and private governance as mechanisms to increase consumer conscientiousness, establish a higher environmental standard in terms of microplastic and reduce marine pollution. We find that consumers in general are very conscious about the issue, would generally prefer products that are microplastics free, but would seldom choose these when there is a price premium on the label. This had a geographical offset though, with the results aligning with that of political trust in the nation, with Norwegians being less likely to purchase items with price premiums for private governance labels, and Portugal being most likely to - even with a price premium.

Climate change adaptation and the role of fuel subsidies: An empirical bio-economic modeling study for an artisanal open-access fishery.

Climate change can severely impact artisanal fisheries and affect the role they play in food security. We study climate change effects on the triple bottom line of ecological productivity, fishers' incomes, and fish consumption for an artisanal open-access fishery. We develop and apply an empirical, stochastic bio-economic model for the Senegalese artisanal purse seine fishery on small pelagic fish and compare the simulated fishery's development using four climate projections and two policy scenarios. We find that economic processes of adaptation may amplify the effects of climate variations. The regions' catch potential increases with climate change, induced by stock distribution changes. However, this outcome escalates over-fishing, whose effects outpace the incipiently favorable climate change effects under three of the four climate projections. Without policy action, the fishery is estimated to collapse in 2030-2035 on average over 1000 runs. We propose an easily implementable and overall welfare-increasing intervention: reduction of fuel subsidies. If fuel subsidies were abolished, ecological sustainability as well as the fishery's welfare contribution would increase regardless of the climate projection.

Ecological-economic sustainability of the Baltic cod fisheries under ocean warming and acidification.

Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.

It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Quantification of CD95-induced apoptosis and NF-κB activation at the single cell level.

CD95/Fas/APO-1 is a member of the death receptor (DR) family. Stimulation of CD95 leads to the induction of apoptosis as well as to NF-κB signaling. Crosstalk between these two pathways plays a central role in cell fate. Defects in the regulation of apoptosis and of NF-κB are connected to a number of chronic inflammatory diseases and cancer. For a better understanding of the life/death decisions in the cell and their contribution to disease progression, the development of new technologies is required. Using imaging flow cytometry we developed a method that enables a quantitative detection of different CD95 signaling pathways in the single cell. The important advantage of this method compared to other approaches is that it allows quantifying a large number of single cells undergoing apoptosis and NF-κB activation. This technology could provide new insights into the quantitative characterization of apoptosis and NF-κB at the single cell level and could be used for the quantitative network analysis in systems biology studies.

Quantification of apoptosis and necroptosis at the single cell level by a combination of Imaging Flow Cytometry with classical Annexin V/propidium iodide staining.

Precisely identifying the type of programmed cell death is one of the key questions in contemporary biomedical research. We developed a straightforward approach allowing quantitative discrimination between two types of cell death on the single cell level: apoptosis and necroptosis. This method uses the combination of imaging flow cytometry with classical Annexin V/propidium iodide staining, which allows for the ascertainment of typical features of dying cells: exposure of the phospholipid phosphatidylserine and the loss of membrane integrity. Image-based analysis of nuclear morphology enables us to distinguish between secondary necrotic/late apoptotic and necroptotic cells directly in one assay. This is a major advantage compared to other contemporary approaches of necroptosis detection, which require a parallel application of several methods. This approach can be used for the quantitative assessment of cell death in cell and systems biology studies of signal transduction networks.

Ocean acidification may aggravate social-ecological trade-offs in coastal fisheries.

Ocean Acidification (OA) will influence marine ecosystems by changing species abundance and composition. Major effects are described for calcifying organisms, which are significantly impacted by decreasing pH values. Direct effects on commercially important fish are less well studied. The early life stages of fish populations often lack internal regulatory mechanisms to withstand the effects of abnormal pH. Negative effects can be expected on growth, survival, and recruitment success. Here we study Norwegian coastal cod, one of the few stocks where such a negative effect was experimentally quantified, and develop a framework for coupling experimental data on OA effects to ecological-economic fisheries models. In this paper, we scale the observed physiological responses to the population level by using the experimentally determined mortality rates as part of the stock-recruitment relationship. We then use an ecological-economic optimization model, to explore the potential effect of rising CO2 concentration on ecological (stock size), economic (profits), consumer-related (harvest) and social (employment) indicators, with scenarios ranging from present day conditions up to extreme acidification. Under the assumptions of our model, yields and profits could largely be maintained under moderate OA by adapting future fishing mortality (and related effort) to changes owing to altered pH. This adaptation comes at the costs of reduced stock size and employment, however. Explicitly visualizing these ecological, economic and social tradeoffs will help in defining realistic future objectives. Our results can be generalized to any stressor (or stressor combination), which is decreasing recruitment success. The main findings of an aggravation of trade-offs will remain valid. This seems to be of special relevance for coastal stocks with limited options for migration to avoid unfavorable future conditions and subsequently for coastal fisheries, which are often small scale local fisheries with limited operational ranges.

Assessing social--ecological trade-offs to advance ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Modern resource management faces trade-offs in the provision of various ecosystem goods and services to humanity. For fisheries management to develop into an ecosystem-based approach, the goal is not only to maximize economic profits, but to consider equally important conservation and social equity goals. We introduce such a triple-bottom line approach to the management of multi-species fisheries using the Baltic Sea as a case study. We apply a coupled ecological-economic optimization model to address the actual fisheries management challenge of trading-off the recovery of collapsed cod stocks versus the health of ecologically important forage fish populations. Management strategies based on profit maximization would rebuild the cod stock to high levels but may cause the risk of stock collapse for forage species with low market value, such as Baltic sprat (Fig. 1A). Economically efficient conservation efforts to protect sprat would be borne almost exclusively by the forage fishery as sprat fishing effort and profits would strongly be reduced. Unless compensation is paid, this would challenge equity between fishing sectors (Fig. 1B). Optimizing equity while respecting sprat biomass precautionary levels would reduce potential profits of the overall Baltic fishery, but may offer an acceptable balance between overall profits, species conservation and social equity (Fig. 1C). Our case study shows a practical example of how an ecosystem-based fisheries management will be able to offer society options to solve common conflicts between different resource uses. Adding equity considerations to the traditional trade-off between economy and ecology will greatly enhance credibility and hence compliance to management decisions, a further footstep towards healthy fish stocks and sustainable fisheries in the world ocean.