[30 years of German unification: achievements and remaining differences in mortality trends by age and cause of death]. / 30 Jahre Deutsche Einheit: Errungenschaften und verbliebene Unterschiede in der Mortalitätsentwicklung nach Alter und Todesursachen.

BACKGROUND: During the German division, two culturally very similar populations were exposed to very disparate socioeconomic conditions, which converged again after 1989. The impact of healthcare and life circumstances on mortality differences can better be estimated when cultural explanations are widely neglectable. OBJECTIVES: For the first time, we analyse harmonised cause-of-death data explicitly by age. Hereby, we can show which ages or birth cohorts were particularly affected by German division and reunification in their mortality and to which causes of death this is attributable. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We harmonised the German cause-of-death statistics by applying an internationally standardised harmonisation process to account for differences and breaks in cause-of-death coding practices. We analysed the data using decomposition methods. RESULTS: During the 1980s, east-west disparities were increasing as progress in the reduction of cardiovascular mortality was much stronger in West Germany, notably at older ages. After 1989, East Germany was able to catch up to the west in many areas. This is especially true for elderly persons and women, while east-west disparities are still visible today, particularly among male adult cohorts (1950-1970) strongly affected by the East German transition crisis. CONCLUSIONS: The lower life expectancy of the East German population in the late 1980s was primarily caused by a slower pace of the cardiovascular revolution. The remaining present-day disparities are rather an aftermath of the East German transition crisis than direct aftereffects of the division.

Socioeconomic differences in mortality among 27 million economically active Germans: a cross-sectional analysis of the German Pension Fund data.

OBJECTIVES: To assess disparities in mortality by socioeconomic status in Germany. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyse a large administrative dataset of the German Pension Fund (DRV), including 27 million person-years of exposure and 42 000 deaths in 2013. The data cover the economically active population, stratified by sex and by East and West. OUTCOME MEASURES: Age-standardised mortality rates and Poisson regression mortality rate ratios (MRRs). RESULTS: The risk of dying increases with decreasing income: the MRRs of the lowest to the highest income quintile are 4.66 (95% CI 4.48 to 4.85) among men and 3.06 (95% CI 2.90 to 3.23) among women. The impact of income attenuates after controlling for education and other explanatory variables, especially for females. In the fully controlled model for females, individual income is a weaker predictor of mortality, but there is a clear educational mortality gradient. In the fully controlled model, the MRRs of the unemployed to the employed are 2.09 (95% CI 2.03 to 2.15) among men and 2.01 (95% CI 1.92 to 2.10) among women. The risk of dying is around half as high among foreigners as among German citizens. The socioeconomic disparities are greater among East than West German men. CONCLUSIONS: Low socioeconomic status is a major determinant of excess adult mortality in Germany. The persisting East-West differences in male adult mortality can be explained by the higher socioeconomic status of men living in the West, rather than by contextual differences between East and West. These differences can be further monitored using DRV data.

Regional Mortality Disparities in Germany: Long-Term Dynamics and Possible Determinants.

While regional mortality inequalities in Germany tend to be relatively stable in the short run, over the course of the past century marked changes have occurred in the country's regional mortality patterns. These changes include not only the re-emergence of stark differences between eastern and western Germany after 1970, which have almost disappeared again in the decades after the reunification of Germany in 1990; but also substantial changes in the disparities between northern and southern Germany. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the northern regions in Germany had the highest life expectancy levels, while the southern regions had the lowest. Today, this mortality pattern is reversed. In this paper, we study these long-term trends in spatial mortality disparities in Germany since 1910, and link them with theoretical considerations and existing research on the possible determinants of these patterns. Our findings support the view that the factors which contributed to shape spatial mortality variation have changed substantially over time, and suggest that the link between regional socioeconomic conditions and recorded mortality levels strengthened over the last 100 years.

Reversing East-West mortality difference among German women, and the role of smoking.

BACKGROUND: The German East-West mortality difference narrowed rapidly after the 1990 unification, particularly for women. We analyse recent trends for women aged 50-89 years and document for the first time lower mortality in the East. We study how smoking contributes to this cross-over. METHODS: We analyse mortality by cause for women aged 50-89 over the years 1992-2009 for the East and West Germany, excluding Berlin. We compare the East-West mortality rate ratio (MRR) for total mortality and after removing smoking-attributable mortality using the indirect Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method. RESULTS: In the early 1990s mortality was higher in the East. By 2000 mortality for ages 50-64 had declined below that of the West and remained lower thereafter. For example, from 1992-94 to 2005-09 the MRR for ages 55-59 declined from 1.27 to 0.87. Smoking explains a third of the MRR change for ages 50-64, and when smoking-attributable deaths are removed the mortality cross-over vanishes. For example, non-smoking-attributable MRR for ages 55-59 is 1.03 in 2005-09. For ages 65-89 smoking matters less, and mortality remains higher in the East. CONCLUSIONS: We show for the first time that mortality for middle-aged women is lower in the former East Germany than in the West. Prior studies have documented convergence and suggested improving living standards and medical care as mechanisms. We show that much of the convergence, and the cross-over, are attributable to smoking. The seeds for the female East-West mortality cross-over were planted before the unification, when the women now aged 50-64 adopted their smoking behaviours.

Health care consequences of demographic changes in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania: projected case numbers for age-related diseases up to the year 2020, based on the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP).

BACKGROUND: The population in the German federal state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania is growing older. A resulting rise in age-related diseases will likely lead to a greater need for medical care, even though the population as a whole is declining. The predicted number of patients affected by these diseases varies from one district to another because of local differences in demographic trends. METHODS: Case numbers were forecasted on the basis of representative data on the morbidity from chronic diseases, which were derived from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), the conjoint cancer registry of the East German federal states (GKR), and a study on dementia morbidity. These data were combined with demographic prognoses for Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and its rural and urban districts up to the year 2020. RESULTS: The largest increases in case numbers are predicted for dementia (+91.1%), myocardial infarction (+28.3%), diabetes mellitus (+21.4%), and incident colon carcinoma (+31.0%; all figures are expressed in relation to the year 2005 as a baseline). The predicted changes in case numbers vary widely from one district to another. CONCLUSION: All of the German federal states located in the former East Germany are likely to experience similar developments to those predicted for Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, as will many rural areas of the former West Germany, in which a demographic transition is already evident. Because of the predicted rise in the number of patients, new health care concepts will have to be rapidly developed, implemented, and evaluated in order to ensure that comprehensive medical care will be delivered where it is needed.

Low migrant mortality in Germany for men aged 65 and older: fact or artifact?

Migrant mortality in Europe was found to be lower than mortality of host populations. In Germany, residents with migrant background constitute nearly one tenth of the population aged 65+ with about 40% of them being foreigners. The German Pension Scheme follows vital status of pensioners very accurately. Mortality re-estimation reveals two-fold underestimation of mortality of foreigners due to biased death numerator and population denominator.

Length of life and the pensions of five million retired German men.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic differences in old-age mortality have not been studied in Germany. This study fills in the gap, evaluating mortality and life expectancy differentials among retired German men aged 65+ in 2003. METHODS: Mortality rates are calculated from the administrative database on all public pensions and deaths of pensioners in 2003. Relative mortality rates and life expectancies are estimated for population subgroups according to the quintiles of lifetime earnings, type of medical insurance, broad occupational group, and residence in eastern or western Germany. RESULTS: Among pension income quintiles, mortality varies by 60% and life expectancy at age 65 ranges from 14.9 to 18.5 years. Quintile-specific mortality and life-expectancy values are only slightly more favorable in western compared to eastern Germany. The mortality of manual workers is by 35% greater than that of salaried employees, while the mortality of those with mandatory public health insurance is 44% greater than the mortality of those with private or voluntary public health insurance. When all four characteristics are taken into account, relative mortality in the group with the highest mortality is three times higher than at the opposite end of the distribution, and corresponding life expectancies are 12.5 and 20 years. Half of all male deaths at ages 65+ are attributable to this variation. The mortality differentials remain significant at ages 80+. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic mortality differentials persist into old age. They are similar in both regions and their magnitude is much greater than the diminishing mortality gap between the two parts of the country.

Month of birth and survival to age 105+: evidence from the age validation study of German semi-supercentenarians.

Using data from Germany, we examine if month of birth influences survival up to age 105. Since age reporting at the highest ages is notoriously unreliable we draw on age-validated information from a huge age validation project of 1487 alleged German semi-supercentenarians aged 105+. We use month of birth as an exogenous indicator for seasonal changes in the environment around the time of birth. We find that the seasonal distribution of birth dates changes with age. For 925 age-validated semi-supercentenarians the seasonality is more pronounced than at the time of their birth (1880-1900). Among the December-born the relative risk of survival from birth to age 105+is 16% higher than the average, among the June-born, 23% lower. The month-of-birth pattern in the survival risk of the German semi-supercentenarians resembles closely the month-of-birth pattern in remaining life expectancy at age 50 in Denmark.

The contribution of medical care to changing life expectancy in Germany and Poland.

This paper assesses the impact of medical care on changes in mortality in east Germany and Poland before and after the political transition, with west Germany included for comparison. Building upon Rutstein's concept of unnecessary untimely deaths, we calculated the contribution of conditions considered responsive to medical care or health policy to changes in life expectancy between birth and age 75 [e(0-75)] for the periods 1980/1983-1988 and 1991/1992-1996/1997. Temporary life expectancy, between birth and age 75, has been consistently higher in west Germany, intermediate in east Germany and lowest in Poland. Although improving in all three regions between the early 1980s and the late 1990s, the pace of change differed between countries, resulting in a temporary widening of an initial east-west gap by the late 1980s and early 1990s. In the 1980s, in east Germany, 50-60% of the improvement was attributable to declining mortality from conditions responsive to medical care (west Germany: 30-40%). A net positive effect was also observed in Poland, although counterbalanced by deterioration in ischaemic heart disease mortality.In the former communist countries, improvements attributable to medical care in the 1980s were due, largely, to declining infant mortality. In the 1990s, they benefited also adults, specifically those aged 35+ in Poland and 55+ in Germany. A persisting east-west gap in temporary life expectancy in Germany was due, largely, to higher mortality from avoidable conditions in the east, with causes responsive to health policy contributing about half, and medical care 16% (men) to 24% (women) to the differential in 1997. The findings indicate that changes in the health care system related to the political transition were associated with improvements in life expectancy in east Germany and, to a lesser extent, in Poland. Also, differences in the quality of medical care as assessed by the concept of "unnecessary untimely deaths" appear to contribute to a persisting east-west health gap. Especially in Poland and the former German Democratic Republic there remains potential for further progress that would narrow the health gap with the west.