Development and validation of a prediction model for unemployment and work disability among 55 950 Dutch workers.

BACKGROUND: This study developed prediction models for involuntary exit from paid employment through unemployment and disability benefits and examined if predictors and discriminative ability of these models differ between five common chronic diseases. METHODS: Data from workers in the Lifelines Cohort Study (n = 55 950) were enriched with monthly information on employment status from Statistics Netherlands. Potential predictors included sociodemographic factors, chronic diseases, unhealthy behaviours and working conditions. Data were analyzed using cause-specific Cox regression analyses. Models were evaluated with the C-index and the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively). The developed models were externally validated using data from the Study on Transitions in Employment, Ability and Motivation. RESULTS: Being female, low education, depression, smoking, obesity, low development possibilities and low social support were predictors of unemployment and disability. Low meaning of work and low physical activity increased the risk for unemployment, while all chronic diseases increased the risk of disability benefits. The discriminative ability of the models of the development and validation cohort were low for unemployment (c = 0.62; c = 0.60) and disability benefits (c = 0.68; c = 0.75). After stratification for specific chronic diseases, the discriminative ability of models predicting disability benefits improved for cardiovascular disease (c = 0.81), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (c = 0.74) and diabetes mellitus type 2 (c = 0.74). The PPV was low while the NPV was high for all models. CONCLUSION: Taking workers' particular disease into account may contribute to an improved prediction of disability benefits, yet risk factors are better examined at the population level rather than at the individual level.

The influence of chronic diseases and poor working conditions in working life expectancy across educational levels among older employees in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate the influence of chronic diseases and poor working conditions - across educational levels - on working life expectancy (WLE) and working years lost (WYL) in the Dutch workforce after age 50. METHODS: Information on demographics, chronic diseases, and working conditions from 11 800 Dutch workers aged 50-66 years participating in the Study on Transitions in Employment, Ability and Motivation (STREAM) from 2010/2015 was enriched with monthly information on employment status from Statistics Netherlands up to 2018. In a multistate model, transitions were calculated between paid employment and involuntary exit (disability benefits, unemployment) and voluntary exit (economic inactivity, early retirement) to estimate the impact of education, chronic diseases, and working conditions on WLE and WYL between age 50 and 66. RESULTS: Workers with a chronic disease (up to 1.01 years) or unfavorable working conditions (up to 0.63 years) had more WYL due to involuntary pathways than workers with no chronic disease or favorable working conditions. The differences in WYL between workers with and without a chronic disease were slightly higher among workers with a lower education level (male: 0.85, female: 1.01 years) compared to workers with a high educational level (male: 0.72, female: 0.82 years). Given the higher prevalence of chronic diseases and unfavorable working conditions, WYL among lower educated workers were higher than among higher educated workers. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of a chronic disease or unfavorable working conditions, more prevalent among lower educated workers, contribute substantially to WYL among older workers. This will increase educational inequalities in working careers.eers.

The mediating role of unhealthy behavior in the relationship between shift work and perceived health.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the relationship between shift work and perceived health, including potential underlying mechanisms such as unhealthy behaviors. The aim of this study was to investigate whether unhealthy behaviors mediate the relationship between shift work and perceived mental and physical health, taking into account potential differences by level of education. METHODS: Data from 1633 workers participating in the Doetinchem Cohort Study during 1995-2016 were used. Being engaged in shift work was determined at 1 year preceding the assessment of health behaviors. Mental and physical health were assessed after 5 years of follow-up by the 5-item Mental Health Inventory and the physical functioning scale of the 36-item Short Form Health Survey. Smoking, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, and overweight were considered as potential mediators and education was treated as moderator. Moderated mediation analyses using generalized estimated equations were performed. RESULTS: Shift work was not statistically significantly related to either mental or physical health. Despite this, statistically significant mediation effects of smoking (Beta - 0.09; 95% Confidence Interval - 0.20 - -0.01, respectively B -0.09; 95%CI -0.21 - -0.01) and physical inactivity (B 0.11; 95%CI 0.03-0.23, respectively B 0.08; 95%CI 0.01-0.18) were found in the relationship between shift work and mental or physical health. Direct and indirect effects outweighed each other in the relationship between shift work and mental health, since the direction of these effects was opposite. The relationship between shift work, unhealthy behavior, and health was not different by educational level. CONCLUSION: Shift workers did not report lower mental or physical health than non-shift workers. Though mediation effects of unhealthy behavior were observed in the relationship between shift work and perceived health, these small effects had minor public health relevance.

The influence of unhealthy behaviours on early exit from paid employment among workers with a chronic disease: A prospective study using the Lifelines cohort.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the risk of unhealthy behaviours and the additive effects of multiple unhealthy behaviours on exit from paid employment among workers with a chronic disease and investigated effect modification by gender and educational level. METHODS: Data from the Lifelines cohort, collected between 2006 and 2013, were enriched with registry data from Statistics Netherlands with up to 11 years follow-up. Workers with a chronic disease were selected (n = 11,467). The influence of unhealthy behaviours (physical inactivity, smoking, unhealthy diet, high alcohol intake, and obesity) on exit from paid employment (unemployment, disability benefits, early retirement, and economic inactivity) was examined using competing risk models. To examine effect modification by gender and educational level, interaction terms were added. RESULTS: Smoking and low fruit intake increased the risk to exit paid employment through unemployment and disability benefits. Low vegetable intake increased the risk of unemployment, obesity the risk of receiving disability benefits, and high alcohol intake the risk of early retirement. Physical inactivity was not associated with any exit from paid employment. Having multiple unhealthy behaviours increased the risk of both unemployment and of receiving disability. No consistent effect modification for gender or educational level was found. CONCLUSIONS: Unhealthy behaviours increased the risk to exit paid employment through unemployment and disability benefits among workers with a chronic disease, and this risk increased when having multiple unhealthy behaviours. Health promotion to support workers with chronic diseases to make healthier choices may help to extend their working life.

Influence of changing working conditions on exit from paid employment among workers with a chronic disease.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relation between changes in working conditions and exit from paid employment among workers with a chronic disease. METHODS: Six waves from the longitudinal Study on Transitions in Employment, Ability and Motivation (2010-2016), enriched with tax-based employment information from Statistics Netherlands (2011-2017), were available for 4820 chronically ill workers aged 45-63 years (mean 55.3 years, SD 5.1). A change in working conditions (physical workload, psychological job demands, job autonomy, emotional job demands and social support) was defined as an increase or decrease between two consecutive waves of at least one SD. Discrete-time survival models with repeated measurements were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of a change in working conditions on exiting paid employment in the following year compared with no change and consecutive favourable working conditions. RESULTS: A favourable change in physical workload lowered the risk to exit paid employment (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.94). An adverse change in psychosocial working conditions, especially a decrease in social support (RR 2.07, 95% CI 1.52 to 2.81), increased the likelihood to exit paid employment. In contrast, a favourable change in psychological job demands increased the risk to exit paid employment (RR 1.57, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.24). Multiple adverse changes increased the risk to exit paid employment up to six times (RR 6.06, 95% CI 2.83 to 12.98). CONCLUSIONS: Changes in working conditions among workers with chronic diseases influence exit from paid employment. Ensuring that working conditions can be adapted to the needs of workers with a chronic disease may help to extend working life.

Health-related educational inequalities in paid employment across 26 European countries in 2005-2014: repeated cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: The study investigates the trends in health-related inequalities in paid employment among men and women in different educational groups in 26 countries in 5 European regions. DESIGN: Individual-level analysis of repeated cross-sectional annual data (2005-2014) from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. SETTING: 26 European countries in 5 European regions. PARTICIPANTS: 1 844 915 individuals aged 30-59 years were selected with information on work status, chronic illness, educational background, age and gender. OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute differences were expressed by absolute differences in proportion in paid employment between participants with and without a chronic illness, using linear regression. Relative differences were expressed by prevalence ratios in paid employment, using a Cox proportional hazard model. Linear regression was used to examine the trends of inequalities. RESULTS: Participants with a chronic illness had consistently lower labour force participation than those without illnesses. Educational inequalities were substantial with absolute differences larger within lower educated (men 21%-35%, women 10%-31%) than within higher educated (men 5%-13%, women 6%-16%). Relative differences showed that low-educated men with a chronic illness were 1.4-1.9 times (women 1.3-1.8 times) more likely to be out of paid employment than low-educated persons without a chronic illness, whereas this was 1.1-1.2 among high-educated men and women. In the Nordic, Anglo-Saxon and Eastern regions, these health-related educational inequalities in paid employment were more pronounced than in the Continental and Southern region. For most regions, absolute health-related educational inequalities in paid employment were generally constant, whereas relative inequalities increased, especially among low-educated persons. CONCLUSIONS: Men and women with a chronic illness have considerable less access to the labour market than their healthy colleagues, especially among lower educated persons. This exclusion from paid employment will increase health inequalities.