Using fractal self-similarity to increase precision of shrub biomass estimates.

We show that aerial tips are self-similar fractals of whole shrubs and present a field method that applies this fact to improves accuracy and precision of biomass estimates of tall-shrubs, defined here as those with diameter at root collar (DRC) ≥ 2.5 cm. Power function allometry of biomass to stem diameter generates a disproportionate prediction error that increases rapidly with diameter. Thus, biomass should be modeled as a single measure of stem diameter only if stem diameter is less than a threshold Dmax . When stem diameter exceeds Dmax , then the stem internode should be treated as a conic frustrum requiring two additional measures: a second, node-adjacent diameter and a length. If the second diameter is less than Dmax , then the power function allometry can be applied to the aerial tip; otherwise an additional internode is measured. This "two-component" allometry-internodes as frustra and aerial tips as shrubs-can reduce estimated biomass error propagated to the plot-level by as much as 50% or more where very large shrubs are present Dmax is any diameter such that the ratio of single-component to two-component uncertainty exceeds the ratio of two-component to single-component measurement time. Guidelines for estimating Dmax based on pilot field data are provided. Tall shrubs are increasing in abundance and distribution across Arctic, alpine, boreal, and dryland ecosystems. Estimating their biomass is important for both ecological studies and carbon accounting. Reducing field-sample prediction error increases precision in multi-stage modeling because additional measures efficiently improve plot-level biomass precision, reducing uncertainty for shrub biomass estimates.

Potential vulnerability of 348 herbaceous species to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the United States.

Atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur pollution increased over much of the United States during the twentieth century from fossil fuel combustion and industrial agriculture. Despite recent declines, nitrogen and sulfur deposition continue to affect many plant communities in the United States, although which species are at risk remains uncertain. We used species composition data from >14,000 survey sites across the contiguous United States to evaluate the association between nitrogen and sulfur deposition and the probability of occurrence for 348 herbaceous species. We found that the probability of occurrence for 70% of species was negatively associated with nitrogen or sulfur deposition somewhere in the contiguous United States (56% for N, 51% for S). Of the species, 15% and 51% potentially decreased at all nitrogen and sulfur deposition rates, respectively, suggesting thresholds below the minimum deposition they receive. Although more species potentially increased than decreased with nitrogen deposition, increasers tended to be introduced and decreasers tended to be higher-value native species. More vulnerable species tended to be shorter with lower tissue nitrogen and magnesium. These relationships constitute predictive equations to estimate critical loads. These results demonstrate that many herbaceous species may be at risk from atmospheric deposition and can inform improvements to air quality policies in the United States and globally.

Conditional vulnerability of plant diversity to atmospheric nitrogen deposition across the United States.

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has been shown to decrease plant species richness along regional deposition gradients in Europe and in experimental manipulations. However, the general response of species richness to N deposition across different vegetation types, soil conditions, and climates remains largely unknown even though responses may be contingent on these environmental factors. We assessed the effect of N deposition on herbaceous richness for 15,136 forest, woodland, shrubland, and grassland sites across the continental United States, to address how edaphic and climatic conditions altered vulnerability to this stressor. In our dataset, with N deposition ranging from 1 to 19 kg N⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1), we found a unimodal relationship; richness increased at low deposition levels and decreased above 8.7 and 13.4 kg N⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1) in open and closed-canopy vegetation, respectively. N deposition exceeded critical loads for loss of plant species richness in 24% of 15,136 sites examined nationwide. There were negative relationships between species richness and N deposition in 36% of 44 community gradients. Vulnerability to N deposition was consistently higher in more acidic soils whereas the moderating roles of temperature and precipitation varied across scales. We demonstrate here that negative relationships between N deposition and species richness are common, albeit not universal, and that fine-scale processes can moderate vegetation responses to N deposition. Our results highlight the importance of contingent factors when estimating ecosystem vulnerability to N deposition and suggest that N deposition is affecting species richness in forested and nonforested systems across much of the continental United States.

The new flora of northeastern USA: quantifying introduced plant species occupancy in forest ecosystems.

Introduced plant species have significant negative impacts in many ecosystems and are found in many forests around the world. Some factors linked to the distribution of introduced species include fragmentation and disturbance, native species richness, and climatic and physical conditions of the landscape. However, there are few data sources that enable the assessment of introduced species occupancy in native plant communities over broad regions. Vegetation data from 1,302 forest inventory plots across 24 states in northeastern and mid-western USA were used to examine and compare the distribution of introduced species in relation to forest fragmentation across ecological provinces and forest types, and to examine correlations between native and introduced species richness. There were 305 introduced species recorded, and 66 % of all forested plots had at least one introduced species. Forest edge plots had higher constancy and occupancy of introduced species than intact forest plots, but the differences varied significantly among ecological provinces and, to a lesser degree, forest types. Weak but significant positive correlations between native and introduced species richness were observed most often in intact forests. Rosa multiflora was the most common introduced species recorded across the region, but Hieracium aurantiacum and Epipactus helleborine were dominant in some ecological provinces. Identifying regions and forest types with high and low constancies and occupation by introduced species can help target forest stands where management actions will be the most effective. Identifying seemingly benign introduced species that are more prevalent than realized will help focus attention on newly emerging invasives.