Retrospective Analysis of Treatment Pathways in Patients With BRAFV600E-mutant Metastatic Colorectal Carcinoma - MORSECRC.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is a heterogeneous disease with distinct molecular subtypes. The BRAFV600E-mutation found in approximately 8-12% of mCRC patients is associated with poor prognosis. Guideline recommendations for this population are mostly based on small cohorts due to lack of clinical data. This retrospective analysis was designed to evaluate (approved) therapeutic approaches and algorithms in BRAFV600E-mutant mCRC prior to approval of the targeted combination encorafenib plus cetuximab in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Anonymized data from BRAFV600E-mutant mCRC patients were analyzed retrospectively regarding 1st-, 2nd- and 3rd-line treatment using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Forty-two patients were eligible for analysis (mean age 62.1 years, 47.6% female). At initial diagnosis, 20 patients (47.6%) were documented with right-sided tumors. Most patients (81.0%) were tested for BRAF before 1st-line. Four patients (9.5%) showed high microsatellite instability (MSI-H). Based on 94 treatment lines, chemotherapy combined with targeted therapy (TT) was used mostly (61.7%), followed by chemotherapy alone (19.1%). Backbone therapies were most frequently FOLFOXIRI (27.7%), FOLFOX/CAPOX (22.3%), or FOLFIRI (20.2%). Anti-VEGF/VEGFR and anti-EGFR-treatments were used in 45.7% and 23.4% of patients, respectively. Across all treatment lines and types, the predominantly documented reason for discontinuation was lack of efficacy. CONCLUSION: Combined chemotherapy+TT (anti-VEGF/VEGFR and anti-EGFR) played a predominant role in BRAFV600E-mutated mCRC treatment prior to approval of the targeted combination encorafenib plus cetuximab. Since lack of efficacy was the major reason for treatment discontinuation, newly approved therapies including encorafenib plus cetuximab and - for MSI-H tumors - pembrolizumab represent urgently needed options for future mCRC patients.

Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions.

Recent theoretical studies have shown contrasting effects of temporal correlation of environmental fluctuations (red noise) on the risk of population extinction. It is still debated whether and under which conditions red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared with uncorrelated (white) noise. Here, we explain the opposing effects by introducing two features of red noise time series. On the one hand, positive autocorrelation increases the probability of series of poor environmental conditions, implying increasing extinction risk. On the other hand, for a given time period, the probability of at least one extremely bad year ("catastrophe") is reduced compared with white noise, implying decreasing extinction risk. Which of these two features determines extinction risk depends on the strength of environmental fluctuations and the sensitivity of population dynamics to these fluctuations. If extreme (catastrophic) events can occur (strong noise) or sensitivity is high (overcompensatory density dependence), then temporal correlation decreases extinction risk; otherwise, it increases it. Thus, our results provide a simple explanation for the contrasting previous findings and are a crucial step toward a general understanding of the effect of noise color on extinction risk.

Extinction risk, coloured noise and the scaling of variance.

The impact of temporally correlated fluctuating environments (coloured noise) on the extinction risk of populations has become a main focus in theoretical population ecology. In this study we particularly focus on the extinction risk in strongly correlated environments. Here, we found that, in contrast to moderate auto-correlation, the extinction risk was highly dependent on the process of noise generation, in particular on the method of variance scaling. Such scaling is commonly applied to avoid variance-driven biases when comparing the extinction risk under white and coloured noise. We show that for strong auto-correlation often-used scaling techniques lead to a high variability in the variances of the resulting time series and thus to deviations in the subsequent extinction risk. Therefore, we present an alternative scaling method that always delivers the target variance, even in the case of strong auto-correlation. In contrast to earlier techniques, our very intuitive method is not bound to auto-regressive processes but can be applied to all types of coloured noises. We strongly recommend our method to generate time series when the target of interest is the effect of noise colour on extinction risk not obscured by any variance effects.