Integrated survey methodologies provide process-driven framework for marine renewable energy environmental impact assessment.

Environmental interactions of marine renewable energy developments vary from fine-scale direct (e.g. potential collision) to indirect wide-scale hydrodynamic changes altering oceanographic features. Current UK Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and associated Habitats Regulations Appraisal (HRA) guidelines have limited focus on underlying processes affecting distribution and movements (hence vulnerability) of top predators. This study integrates multi-trophic ship survey (active acoustics and observer data) with an upward-facing seabed platform and 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model as a process-driven framework to investigate predator-prey linkages between seabirds and fish schools. Observer-only data highlighted the need to measure physical drivers of variance in species abundances and distributions. Active acoustics indicated that in situ (preferable to modelled) data were needed to identify temporal changes in hydrodynamics to predict prey and consequently top predator presence. Revising methods to identify key habitats and environmental covariates within current regulatory frameworks will enable more robust and transferable EIA and HRA processes and outputs, and at larger scales for cumulative and strategic-level assessments, enabling future modelling of ecosystem impacts from both climate change and renewable energy extraction.

Fishing within offshore wind farms in the North Sea: Stakeholder perspectives for multi-use from Scotland and Germany.

Offshore wind power generation requires large areas of sea to accommodate its activities, with increasing claims for exclusive access. As a result, pressure is placed on other established maritime uses, such as commercial fisheries. The latter sector has often been taking a back seat in the thrust to move energy production offshore, thus leading to disagreements and conflicts among the different stakeholder groups. In recognition of the latter, there has been a growing international interest in exploring the combination of multiple maritime activities in the same area (multi-use; MU), including the re-instatement of fishing activities within, or in close proximity to, offshore wind farms (OWFs). We summarise local stakeholder perspectives from two sub-national case studies (East coast of Scotland and Germany's North Sea EEZ) to scope the feasibility of combining multiple uses of the sea, such as offshore wind farms and commercial fisheries. We combined a desk-based review with 15 semi-structured qualitative interviews with key knowledge holders from both industries, regulators, and academia to aggregate key results. Drivers, barriers and resulting effects (positive and negative) for potential multi-use of fisheries and OWFs are listed and ranked (57 factors in total). Factors are of economic, social, policy, legal, and technical nature. To date, in both case study areas, the offshore wind industry has shown little interest in multi-use solutions, unless clear added value is demonstrated and no risks to their operations are involved. In contrast, the commercial fishing sector is proactive towards multi-use projects and acts as a driving force for MU developments. We provide a range of management recommendations, based on stakeholder input, to support progress towards robust decision making in relation to multi-use solutions, including required policy and regulatory framework improvements, good practice guidance, empirical studies, capacity building of stakeholders and improvements of the consultation process. Our findings represent a comprehensive depiction of the current state and key stakeholder aspirations for multi-use solutions combining fisheries and OWFs. We believe that the pathways towards robust decision making in relation to multi-use solutions suggested here are transferable to other international locations.

Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator-prey population distributions by 2050.

Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator-prey overlap in 2050 under the "business-as-usual, worst-case" climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth-averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator-prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator-prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator-prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade-offs in decisions involving issues of large-scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large-scale marine renewable developments.

Taking movement data to new depths: Inferring prey availability and patch profitability from seabird foraging behavior.

Detailed information acquired using tracking technology has the potential to provide accurate pictures of the types of movements and behaviors performed by animals. To date, such data have not been widely exploited to provide inferred information about the foraging habitat. We collected data using multiple sensors (GPS, time depth recorders, and accelerometers) from two species of diving seabirds, razorbills (Alca torda, N = 5, from Fair Isle, UK) and common guillemots (Uria aalge, N = 2 from Fair Isle and N = 2 from Colonsay, UK). We used a clustering algorithm to identify pursuit and catching events and the time spent pursuing and catching underwater, which we then used as indicators for inferring prey encounters throughout the water column and responses to changes in prey availability of the areas visited at two levels: individual dives and groups of dives. For each individual dive (N = 661 for guillemots, 6214 for razorbills), we modeled the number of pursuit and catching events, in relation to dive depth, duration, and type of dive performed (benthic vs. pelagic). For groups of dives (N = 58 for guillemots, 156 for razorbills), we modeled the total time spent pursuing and catching in relation to time spent underwater. Razorbills performed only pelagic dives, most likely exploiting prey available at shallow depths as indicated by the vertical distribution of pursuit and catching events. In contrast, guillemots were more flexible in their behavior, switching between benthic and pelagic dives. Capture attempt rates indicated that they were exploiting deep prey aggregations. The study highlights how novel analysis of movement data can give new insights into how animals exploit food patches, offering a unique opportunity to comprehend the behavioral ecology behind different movement patterns and understand how animals might respond to changes in prey distributions.

Bayesian joint models with INLA exploring marine mobile predator-prey and competitor species habitat overlap.

Understanding spatial physical habitat selection driven by competition and/or predator-prey interactions of mobile marine species is a fundamental goal of spatial ecology. However, spatial counts or density data for highly mobile animals often (1) include excess zeros, (2) have spatial correlation, and (3) have highly nonlinear relationships with physical habitat variables, which results in the need for complex joint spatial models. In this paper, we test the use of Bayesian hierarchical hurdle and zero-inflated joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), to fit complex joint models to spatial patterns of eight mobile marine species (grey seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, northern gannet, herring, and sandeels). For each joint model, we specified nonlinear smoothed effect of physical habitat covariates and selected either competing species or predator-prey interactions. Out of a range of six ecologically important physical and biologic variables that are predicted to change with climate change and large-scale energy extraction, we identified the most important habitat variables for each species and present the relationships between these bio/physical variables and species distributions. In particular, we found that net primary production played a significant role in determining habitat preferences of all the selected mobile marine species. We have shown that the INLA method is well-suited for modeling spatially correlated data with excessive zeros and is an efficient approach to fit complex joint spatial models with nonlinear effects of covariates. Our approach has demonstrated its ability to define joint habitat selection for both competing and prey-predator species that can be relevant to numerous issues in the management and conservation of mobile marine species.

The use of an unsupervised learning approach for characterizing latent behaviors in accelerometer data.

The recent increase in data accuracy from high resolution accelerometers offers substantial potential for improved understanding and prediction of animal movements. However, current approaches used for analysing these multivariable datasets typically require existing knowledge of the behaviors of the animals to inform the behavioral classification process. These methods are thus not well-suited for the many cases where limited knowledge of the different behaviors performed exist. Here, we introduce the use of an unsupervised learning algorithm. To illustrate the method's capability we analyse data collected using a combination of GPS and Accelerometers on two seabird species: razorbills (Alca torda) and common guillemots (Uria aalge). We applied the unsupervised learning algorithm Expectation Maximization to characterize latent behavioral states both above and below water at both individual and group level. The application of this flexible approach yielded significant new insights into the foraging strategies of the two study species, both above and below the surface of the water. In addition to general behavioral modes such as flying, floating, as well as descending and ascending phases within the water column, this approach allowed an exploration of previously unstudied and important behaviors such as searching and prey chasing/capture events. We propose that this unsupervised learning approach provides an ideal tool for the systematic analysis of such complex multivariable movement data that are increasingly being obtained with accelerometer tags across species. In particular, we recommend its application in cases where we have limited current knowledge of the behaviors performed and existing supervised learning approaches may have limited utility.

Modelling foraging movements of diving predators: a theoretical study exploring the effect of heterogeneous landscapes on foraging efficiency.

Foraging in the marine environment presents particular challenges for air-breathing predators. Information about prey capture rates, the strategies that diving predators use to maximise prey encounter rates and foraging success are still largely unknown and difficult to observe. As well, with the growing awareness of potential climate change impacts and the increasing interest in the development of renewable sources it is unknown how the foraging activity of diving predators such as seabirds will respond to both the presence of underwater structures and the potential corresponding changes in prey distributions. Motivated by this issue we developed a theoretical model to gain general understanding of how the foraging efficiency of diving predators may vary according to landscape structure and foraging strategy. Our theoretical model highlights that animal movements, intervals between prey capture and foraging efficiency are likely to critically depend on the distribution of the prey resource and the size and distribution of introduced underwater structures. For multiple prey loaders, changes in prey distribution affected the searching time necessary to catch a set amount of prey which in turn affected the foraging efficiency. The spatial aggregation of prey around small devices (∼ 9 × 9 m) created a valuable habitat for a successful foraging activity resulting in shorter intervals between prey captures and higher foraging efficiency. The presence of large devices (∼ 24 × 24 m) however represented an obstacle for predator movement, thus increasing the intervals between prey captures. In contrast, for single prey loaders the introduction of spatial aggregation of the resources did not represent an advantage suggesting that their foraging efficiency is more strongly affected by other factors such as the timing to find the first prey item which was found to occur faster in the presence of large devices. The development of this theoretical model represents a useful starting point to understand the energetic reasons for a range of potential predator responses to spatial heterogeneity and environmental uncertainties in terms of search behaviour and predator-prey interactions. We highlight future directions that integrated empirical and modelling studies should take to improve our ability to predict how diving predators will be impacted by the deployment of manmade structures in the marine environment.

Marketing hygiene behaviours: the impact of different communication channels on reported handwashing behaviour of women in Ghana.

In 2003-04, a National Handwashing Campaign utilizing mass media and community events took place in Ghana. This article describes the results of the evaluation of the campaign in a sample of 497 women with children <5 years. The unifying message across all communication channels was that hands were not 'truly' clean unless washed with soap. The campaign reached 82% of the study population. Sixty-two per cent of women knew the campaign song, 44% were exposed to one channel and 36% to two or more. Overall, TV and radio had greater reach and impact on reported handwashing than community events, while exposure to both a mass media channel and an event yielded the greatest effect, resulting in a 30% increase in reported handwashing with soap after visiting the toilet or cleaning a child's bottom. Our evaluation questions wide-held belief that community events are more effective agents of behaviour change than mass media commercials, at least in the case of hygiene promotion. However, failure of mass media to reach the entire target audience, particularly in specific regions and lower socio-economic groups, and the additive effect of exposure, underscores the need to implement integrated communication programmes utilizing a variety of complementary channels.

Hard to handle: understanding mothers' handwashing behaviour in Ghana.

While handwashing with soap (HWWS) has been identified as a major pathway to reducing the risk of diarrhoeal diseases, and respiratory infections, rates of HWWS remain low across the globe. The current study, a national survey of Ghanaian mothers, found that as few as 4% of mothers engaged in HWWS after defecation, and only 2% after cleaning a child's bottom. In a multivariate analysis, we explored the determinants of handwashing at these key junctures, with and without soap. After defecation, mother's education, knowledge of important times to handwash with soap, the age of her children, and a measure of the quality of child care were all associated with handwashing (in any form). However, only the latter two variables also predicted soap use amongst handwashers. After cleaning a child's bottom, education, knowledge of important times to handwash with soap, and child care quality were associated with handwashing (in any form), yet only one variable, a measure of disgust sensitivity, showed any possible relationship with soap use. While this study has several important limitations, failure to explain much of the observed variance, despite a large range of potential determinants explored, suggests that we need to continue complementing quantitative surveys with in-depth qualitative studies if we are to better understand the motivations for, and constraints to, HWWS in community settings.

Linking sandeel consumption and the likelihood of starvation in harbour porpoises in the Scottish North Sea: could climate change mean more starving porpoises?

Sandeels are known to be negatively affected by climate change in a number of ways. This study investigated whether these changes are affecting the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), a species which consumes sandeels. Porpoise diet was examined in spring (March-May), a critical time of year for survival when sandeels are important prey, from 1993 to 2001 to provide baseline information on the proportion of sandeels consumed. When data from spring 2002 and 2003 were compared to these baseline data, the diet was found to be substantially different, with a significant and substantially smaller proportion of sandeels being consumed in March and May. There were also differences in the number of porpoises starving between the two time periods (33% in spring 2002 and 2003 died of starvation, but only 5% in the baseline period). This suggests that a lower proportion of sandeels in the diet of porpoises in spring increases the likelihood of starvation. Therefore, we suggest that the negative effects of climate change on sandeel availability may have serious negative effects on harbour porpoise populations in the North Sea by increasing the likelihood of starvation in spring.