Concise or comprehensive? Predictors of impact assessment choices for electric transmission line projects.

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures required in the United States and many other countries are often highlighted as a major hindrance to timely and efficient deployment of critical infrastructure projects. Under the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act, a more extensive environmental impact statement (EIS) review can take several more years and cost much more than a succinct environmental assessment (EA). This not only affects the project in question, but also likely informs how-or whether-additional projects are pursued. Thus, understanding key predictors of the EA versus EIS choice sheds light on supply-side considerations affecting infrastructure deficits. Using the case of NEPA reviews conducted for 244 transmission line projects between 2005 and 2018 by two U.S. federal agencies in the western United States, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and Department of Energy (DOE), this addresses the following question: What project features most predict whether EA or an EIS is used to assess a transmission line project? Drawing upon NEPA assessment guidance and agency NEPA records, we use a regression classification tree to analyze how protocols and project attributes relate to assessment choice. The result is essentially a null finding: transmission line length is by far the most important predictor of whether a project receives an extensive EIS or a shorter EA, with little predictive value provided by other attributes. While absolute project size undoubtedly influences impacts, the lack of further differentiation in what predicts use of EISs versus EAs suggests assessment does not simply respond to project details but also shapes proposal and design choices beforehand.

Environmental hazards, rigid institutions, and transformative change: How drought affects the consideration of water and climate impacts in infrastructure management.

Climate change necessitates major changes in infrastructure siting, design, and operations. Successful adaptation of infrastructure management requires overcoming thorny institutional challenges including path dependency and isomorphic pressures that inhibit major shifts in norms and practices. Hazards have been posited as a potential trigger for changing long-standing institutions because they can upend stable system states. However, research on the ability of hazards to shift norms and practices is still nascent and focuses on rapid-onset disasters like floods, hurricanes, or fires. This paper uses the 2012-2016 California drought to assess the potential for slow-onset hazards to lead to institutional change. We assess whether it yielded a shift in institutional norms, namely agency application of existing regulations toward enhanced socio-ecological resilience in the face of climate change. We focus on the environmental impact assessment process under the National Environmental Policy Act and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's process for licensing hydropower dams. Using computational text analysis of Environmental Impact Statements and participant observation of infrastructure licensing negotiations, we assess whether, over the years of the drought, agencies placed more emphasis on drought issues or climate resilience in analyzing infrastructure siting and design. In EIS documents, we observe a short-term spike in consideration of drought-related impacts and a longer-term increase in water security, suggesting some shifts in institutional practice; however, consideration of climate impacts decreased over the time period. In FERC licensing, there was no consideration of future climate impacts, despite managers' recognition that this posed a problem for projects' future operations. Although these results do not preclude the ability of slow-onset hazards to shift institutional norms, they suggest that doing so is challenging.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND SAFETY PERFORMANCE OF GAS UTILITIES IN THE UNITED STATES.

The performance of energy service providers has important environmental and safety consequences in local communities. This paper uses a novel dataset compiled from operator reports and infrastructure monitoring data obtained from three different US federal agencies to assess the performance of retail gas utilities nationwide in terms of addressing gas leaks and minimizing leak volumes. Our panel data set includes yearly observations for 727 retail gas utilities from 2009 to 2017. We show that safety hazards and environmental costs of gas leaks are widespread across providers that vary in terms of ownership, size, and region. We then use series of Bayesian hierarchical models to regress four outcome variables--hazardous leaks, end-year unfixed leaks, total gas volume leaked, and significant incidents--on infrastructure conditions, regional service context, and socio-economic service population characteristics. Unlike what is observed in other critical infrastructure cases such as drinking water, socioeconomic conditions are not strongly predictive of service outcomes. Public utilities exhibit better environmental performance on average, and no difference in maintenance backlogs. Because the environmental costs of poor performance--primarily in terms of methane greenhouse gas emissions--are predominantly social, policy tools such as consolidation and privatization are unlikely to improve environmental outcomes.

Analyzing Policy Networks Using Valued Exponential Random Graph Models: Do Government-Sponsored Collaborative Groups Enhance Organizational Networks?

This paper examines collaborative management groups from the perspective of policymakers seeking to increase coordination within a policy network. While governments often support collaborative groups as a tool to address perceived network failures such as a lack of coordination, the net impact groups have is unclear. I use valued exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to model relationships of varying strength among a regional network of organizations involved in 57 collaborative groups. This provides a unique opportunity to study the interplay between numerous groups and organizations within a large-scale network. Valued ERGMs are a recently developed extension of standard ERGMs that model valued instead of binary ties; thus, this paper also makes a methodological contribution to the policy literature. Findings suggest that participation in collaborative groups does motivate coordination and cooperation amongst individual network organizations; however, this effect is strongest for: (i) organizations that are not already members of another group and (ii) organizations that do not have a preexisting tie. These results support a transaction-cost-based perspective of how government-sponsored collaborative groups can influence network coordination; further, they also provide an empirical example of the Ecology of Games, in which multiple collaborative institutions have interactive effects on one another within a policy network.