RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: This study sets an example of an economic evaluation of a model dengue vaccination strategy for Sri Lanka, following a mandatory pre-vaccination screening strategy. METHODS: A decision analytic Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a predicted dengue vaccination strategy over a time horizon of 10 years. The cost effectiveness of dengue vaccination strategy for seropositive individuals was estimated in terms of incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) (cost per additional quality adjusted life-year [QALY]). District-specific ICER values and the budget impact for dengue vaccine were estimated with appropriate sensitivity analyses, also taking the variability of the pre-vaccination screening test performance into consideration. RESULTS: The ICER for the predicted vaccination strategy following pre-vaccination screening was 4,382 USD/QALY for Sri Lanka. There was a significant regional variation in vaccine cost effectiveness. The disaggregated regional incidence of dengue and the need to perform pre-vaccination screening affects the cost effectiveness estimates significantly, where a safer version of the vaccine has the potential to become cost saving in high incidence districts. CONCLUSIONS: The cost effectiveness of the predicted dengue vaccination strategy following pre-vaccination screening showed a significant regional variation across the districts of Sri Lanka. District-wise disease incidence and the need for pre-vaccination screening was found to be the most significant factors affecting the cost effectiveness of the vaccine.
