Investigating symmetrical influence of economic expansion, oil price, and industrial production on trade deficit: a policy pathway toward three neighboring Asian states.

The intense objective of the present study is to investigate the symmetrical effectiveness of economic expansion, inflation rate, oil price, interest rate, and industrial production on trade deficit of the three neighboring states (China, Pakistan, and India). Westerlund bootstrap LM (Lagrange multiplier) panel co-integration test, Dumitrescu Herlin method, PMG-ARDL model, quantile regression, and quarterly data of last 15 years (2006Q1 to 2020Q4) have been utilized to envisage outcomes. Initial measurements validate the existence of stable co-integration and uni-directional causality among variables. Nevertheless, PMG-ARDL measures evaluates that in both long and short span of time, except industrial production all other regressors (economic expansion, inflation rate, oil price, and interest rate) positively influences the trade deficit in three neighboring states. Furthermore, robust estimates of quantile regression also authenticate the correctness of the above discuss relationship in study economies by evaluating positive (negative) impact of economic expansion, inflation rate, oil price, and interest rate (industrial production) on trade deficit. Thus, in policy pint of view, to lessen trade deficit hazard in studied economies, it is necessarily needed to encourage industrial production, replaced fossil fuel using outdated gadgets with advance green technology instruments, control inflation, and interest rate in single digit through strong budgetary and monetary policies and maintain economic expansion with appropriate and comprehensive taxation system.

Exploring the dynamic nexus between renewable energy, poverty alleviation, and environmental pollution: fresh evidence from E-9 countries.

The present study aims to scrutinize the long- and short-run relationship along with the direction of causality among environmental pollution (CO2), renewable, non-renewable energy, income disparity, exchange rate, and poverty alleviation in E-9 countries of continent Asia, using a panel dataset from 1990 to 2018. The current study used pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG ARDL) and Dumitrescu-Hurlin (D-H) causality test after affirming a stable long-run association among environmental pollution and all the explanatory variables. However, ECM (error correction mechanism) was specified to explore short-run dynamics. The study's outcomes confirmed strong co-integration among environmental pollution (CO2), renewable, non-renewable energy, income disparity, exchange rate, and poverty alleviation. Moreover, uni (bi) directional causality runs from non-renewable energy, exchange rate, and income disparity (poverty alleviation and renewable energy) to environmental pollution (CO2). Results also revealed that poverty alleviation, exchange rate, and renewable energy usage substantially negatively influence environmental pollution (CO2). Contrarily, income disparities and non-renewable energy usage positively influence long- and short-run environmental pollution. Therefore, from the policy perspective, the current study focused on twofold; first, there is a desire to alleviate poverty, the decline in non-renewable energy use and income disparity among upper and lower-income quintiles. Second, boost exchange rate and renewable energy use to control environmental pollution in the described least developed countries (LDCs).

Reflections of Pro-Poor Growth across Agro-Climatic Zones for Farming and Non-Farming Communities: Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan.

The basic objective of the existing study was to inspect the triangular association between economic growth, poverty, and income disparity in farming and non-farming communities across agro-climatic zones in Punjab province, Pakistan. The cross-sectional Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) data and Poverty Equivalent Growth Rate (PEGR) methodology were applied from 2001-2002 to 2015-2016. Outcomes of the study found that in a short period, 2001-2002 to 2004-2005; 2004-2005 to 2005-2006; 2005-2006 to 2007-2008; 2007-2008 to 2010-2011; 2010-2011 to 2011-2012; 2011-2012 to 2013-2014; and 2013-2014 to 2015-2016, economic growth has presented hybrid (pro-poor and anti-poor) pattern across both communities of all agro-climatic zones of Punjab province in different periods. In the longer period of 2001-2002 to 2015-2016, economic growth has been pro-poor across both communities of all the zones apart from zone III (Cotton-Wheat Punjab); there is an anti-poor pattern of economic growth. Results for the decomposition of change in poverty further indicate that economic growth is a dominant factor in reducing poverty for all investigated zone. Moreover, a positive redistribution component reduces the beneficial impacts of economic growth for the poor more than for non-poor, that ultimately makes economic development patterns anti-poor in zone III. In the present study, we proposed two-fold policy implications. First, improve the living standard of households in each agro-climatic zone by increasing their incomes. Second, develop a precise taxation system that helps to reduce income disparities among upper-pro to lower-income groups.

Developing long- and short-run nexus between industrial growth, economic growth, and trade balance of China.

The study examined the short- and long-run nexus between industrial growth, economic growth, oil production, inflation, and trade deficit of China, using quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2020Q4. We used autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), after affirmation of long-run relationship and uni-directional causality. To examine short-run dynamics, an error correction model (ECM) was specified, and Granger causality test was conducted to find the direction of causality between variables. Empirical findings confirmed cointegration between trade deficit and industrial growth, economic growth, inflation, and oil production. Further, uni-directional causality between trade deficit and all independent variables was found, running from independent variables towards trade deficit. Results revealed that growth of industrial production index play a substantial role in determining trade balance of China. The study further confirms the effectiveness of economic growth and inflation for trade deficit, in both short run and long run. The findings are consistent with extant literature. On the policy front, a couple of suggestions including trade policies with special focus on industrial reforms, and loose monetary policies are made on the basis of derived conclusions.