Cardiac Mechanics and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in a Community-Based Cohort of Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of cardiac structure and function improves risk prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in different populations. We aimed to comprehensively compare standard and newer measures of cardiac structure and function in improving prediction of AF in a cohort of older adults without history of AF and stroke. METHODS: We included 5050 participants without prevalent AF and stroke (mean age 75 ± 5 years, 59% women and 22% Black) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who underwent complete 2-dimensional echocardiography, including speckle-tracking analysis of the left ventricle (LV) and left atrium (LA). We assessed the association of cardiac measures with incident AF (including atrial flutter) and quantified the extent to which these measures improved model discrimination and risk classification of AF compared with the CHARGE-AF score. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up time of 7 years, 676 participants developed AF (incidence rate, 2.13 per 100 person-years). LV mass index and wall thickness, E/e' and measures of LA structure and function, but not LV systolic function, were associated with incident AF, after accounting for confounders. Above all, LA reservoir strain, contraction strain, and LA minimal volume index (C-statistics [95%Confidence interval]: 0.73 [0.70,0.75], 0.72 [0.70,0.75] and 0.72 [0.69,0.75], respectively) significantly improved the risk discrimination of the CHARGE-AF score (baseline C-statistic: 0.68 [0.65,0.70]) and achieved the highest category-based net reclassification improvement (29%, 24% and 20%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of older adults without prevalent AF and stroke, measures of LA function improved the prediction of AF more than other conventional cardiac measures.

Association of Left Atrial Function With Incident Chronic Kidney Disease in Older Adults.

Objective: To examine the association of left atrial (LA) function with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) and assess the clinical utility of adding LA function to a CKD risk prediction equation. Patients and Methods: We included 4002 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants without prevalent CKD (mean ± SD age, 75±5 years; 58% female, 18% Black). Left atrial function (reservoir, conduit, and contractile strain) was evaluated by 2D-echocardiograms on 2011 to 2013. Chronic kidney disease was defined as greater than 25% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, end-stage kidney disease, or hospital records. Cox proportional hazards models were used. Risk prediction and decision curve analyses evaluated 5-year CKD risk by diabetes status. Results: Median follow-up was 7.2 years, and 598 participants developed incident CKD. Incidence rate for CKD was 2.29 per 100 person-years. After multivariable adjustments, the lowest quintile of LA reservoir, conduit, and contractile strain (vs highest quintile) had a higher risk of CKD (hazard ratios [95% CIs]: 1.94 [1.42-2.64], 1.62 [1.19-2.20], and 1.49 [1.12-1.99]). Adding LA reservoir strain to the CKD risk prediction equation variables increased the C-index by 0.026 (95% CI: 0.005-0.051) and 0.031 (95% CI: 0.006-0.058) in participants without and with diabetes, respectively. Decision curve analysis found the model with LA reservoir strain had a higher net benefit than the model with CKD risk prediction equation variables alone. Conclusion: Lower LA function is independently associated with incident CKD. Adding LA function to the CKD risk prediction enhances prediction and yields a higher clinical net benefit. These findings suggest that impaired LA function may be a novel risk factor for CKD.

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic overlap in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: Cardiac structure and function, clinical outcomes, and response to sacubitril/valsartan in PARAGON-HF.

AIMS: Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) multimorbidity is prevalent among individuals with heart failure (HF), but whether cardiac structure and function, clinical outcomes, and treatment response to sacubitril/valsartan vary in relation to CKM status is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this PARAGON-HF post-hoc analysis, we evaluated the impact of CKM multimorbidity (atherosclerotic cardiovascular [CV] disease, chronic kidney disease, and type 2 diabetes) on cardiac structure and function, clinical outcomes, and treatment effects of sacubitril/valsartan versus valsartan. The primary outcome was a composite of total HF hospitalizations and CV death. Secondary outcomes included the individual components of the primary outcome and a composite kidney outcome (sustained estimated glomerular filtration rate reduction of ≥50%, end-stage kidney disease, or kidney-related death). At baseline, 35.2% had one CKM condition, 33.3% had two, 15.9% had three, and only 15.6% had HF alone. CKM multimorbidity was associated with higher septal and posterior wall thickness, lower global longitudinal strain, higher E/e', and worse right ventricular function. Total HF hospitalizations or CV death increased with greater CKM multimorbidity, with the highest relative risk observed with three CKM conditions (rate ratio 3.06, 95% confidence interval 2.33-4.03), compared with HF alone. Treatment effects of sacubitril/valsartan were consistent irrespective of the number of CKM conditions for the primary endpoint (pinteraction = 0.75), CV death (pinteraction = 0.82), total HF hospitalizations (pinteraction = 0.67), and the composite kidney endpoint (pinteraction = 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic multimorbidity was common in PARAGON-HF and associated with adverse changes in cardiac structure and function and with a stepwise increase in risk of clinical outcomes. Treatment effects of sacubitril/valsartan were consistent irrespective of CKM burden. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01920711.

Association of Cumulative Systolic Blood Pressure With Left Atrial Function in the Setting of Normal Left Atrial Size: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Lower left atrial (LA) function is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease events; data on risk factors for impaired LA function are limited. We evaluated the effect of cumulative systolic blood pressure (cSBP) from midlife to older age on LA strain in adults with normal LA size. METHODS: We included participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study with LA strain measured on the visit 5 echocardiogram (2011-13), excluding those with atrial fibrillation and LA volume index >34 mL/m2. The cSBP was calculated from visit 1 (1987-89) through visit 5. Linear regression models were used to evaluate associations between cSBP and LA strain measures. RESULTS: A total of 3,859 participants with a mean (SD) age of 75.2 (5.0) years were included in the analysis; 725 (18.8%) were Black and 2,342 (60.7%) were women. After adjusting for demographics, cardiovascular disease risk factors, heart failure, and coronary heart disease, each 10 mm Hg increase in cSBP was associated with 0.32% (95% CI, -0.52%, -0.13%) and 0.37% (95% CI, -0.51%, -0.22%) absolute reduction in LA reservoir and conduit strain, respectively. Associations were attenuated after adjustment for left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and mass (-0.12%: 95% CI, -0.31, 0.06 for reservoir strain; and -0.24%: 95% CI -0.38%, -0.10% for conduit strain). In subgroup analyses, the association of cSBP with conduit strain was statistically significant among those with normal LV systolic and diastolic function. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative exposure to elevated blood pressure from midlife to late life was modestly associated with lower LA reservoir and conduit strain in older adults with normal LA size, mostly related to the effect of blood pressure on LV function and mass. However, the association of cSBP and LA conduit strain in subgroups with normal LV function suggests that LA remodeling in response to hypertension occurs before LV dysfunction is detected on echocardiography.

High Throughput Plasma Proteomics and Risk of Heart Failure and Frailty in Late Life.

Importance: Heart failure (HF) and frailty frequently coexist and may share a common pathobiology, although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding these mechanisms may provide guidance for preventing and treating both conditions. Objective: To identify shared pathways between incident HF and frailty in late life using large-scale proteomics. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, 4877 aptamers (Somascan v4) were measured among participants in the community-based longitudinal Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) cohort study at visit 3 (V3; 1993-1995; n = 10 638) and at visit 5 (V5; 2011-2013; n = 3908). Analyses were externally replicated among 3189 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Data analysis was conducted from February 2022 to June 2023. Exposures: Protein aptamers, measured at study V3 and V5. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes assessed included incident HF hospitalization after V3 and after V5, prevalent frailty at V5, and incident frailty between V5 and visit 6 (V6; 2016-2017; n = 4131). Frailty was assessed using the Fried criteria. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race, field center, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, prevalent coronary heart disease, prevalent atrial fibrillation, and history of myocardial infarction. Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to assess potential causal effects of candidate proteins on HF and frailty. Results: A total of 4877 protein aptamers were measured among 10 638 participants at V3 (mean [SD] age, 60 [6] years; 4886 [46%] men). Overall, 286 proteins were associated with incident HF after V3 (822 events; P < 1.0 × 10-5), 83 of which were also associated with incident after V5 (336 events; P < 1.7 × 10-4). Among HF-free participants at V5 (n = 3908; mean [SD] age, 75 [5] years; 1861 [42%] men), 48 of 83 HF-associated proteins were associated with prevalent frailty (223 cases; P < 6.0 × 10-4), 18 of which were also associated with incident frailty at V6 (152 cases; P < 1.0 × 10-3). These proteins enriched fibrosis and inflammation pathways and demonstrated stronger associations with incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) than HF with reduced ejection fraction. All 18 proteins were associated with both prevalent frailty and incident HF in CHS. MR identified potential causal effects of several proteins on frailty and HF. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the proteins associated with risk of HF and frailty enrich for pathways related to inflammation and fibrosis as well as risk of HFpEF. Several of these proteins could potentially contribute to the shared pathophysiology of frailty and HF.

Incident heart failure in chronic kidney disease: proteomics informs biology and risk stratification.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Incident heart failure (HF) among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) incurs hospitalizations that burden patients and health care systems. There are few preventative therapies, and the Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) perform poorly in the setting of CKD. New drug targets and better risk stratification are urgently needed. METHODS: In this analysis of incident HF, SomaScan V4.0 (4638 proteins) was analysed in 2906 participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) with validation in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The primary outcome was 14-year incident HF (390 events); secondary outcomes included 4-year HF (183 events), HF with reduced ejection fraction (137 events), and HF with preserved ejection fraction (165 events). Mendelian randomization and Gene Ontology were applied to examine causality and pathways. The performance of novel multi-protein risk models was compared to the PCP-HF risk score. RESULTS: Over 200 proteins were associated with incident HF after adjustment for estimated glomerular filtration rate at P < 1 × 10-5. After adjustment for covariates including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, 17 proteins remained associated at P < 1 × 10-5. Mendelian randomization associations were found for six proteins, of which four are druggable targets: FCG2B, IGFBP3, CAH6, and ASGR1. For the primary outcome, the C-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the 48-protein model in CRIC was 0.790 (0.735, 0.844) vs. 0.703 (0.644, 0.762) for the PCP-HF model (P = .001). C-statistic (95% CI) for the protein model in ARIC was 0.747 (0.707, 0.787). CONCLUSIONS: Large-scale proteomics reveal novel circulating protein biomarkers and potential mediators of HF in CKD. Proteomic risk models improve upon the PCP-HF risk score in this population.

Atrial Fibrillation and Clonal Hematopoiesis in TET2 and ASXL1.

Importance: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) may contribute to the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) through its association with inflammation and cardiac remodeling. Objective: To determine whether CHIP was associated with AF, inflammatory and cardiac biomarkers, and cardiac structural changes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a population-based, prospective cohort study in participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and UK Biobank (UKB) cohort. Samples were collected and echocardiography was performed from 2011 to 2013 in the ARIC cohort, and samples were collected from 2006 to 2010 in the UKB cohort. Included in this study were adults without hematologic malignancies, mitral valve stenosis, or previous mitral valve procedure from both the ARIC and UKB cohorts; additionally, participants without hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and congenital heart disease from the UKB cohort were also included. Data analysis was completed in 2023. Exposures: CHIP (variant allele frequency [VAF] ≥2%), common gene-specific CHIP subtypes (DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1), large CHIP (VAF ≥10%), inflammatory and cardiac biomarkers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin 6 [IL-6], IL-18, high-sensitivity troponin T [hs-TnT] and hs-TnI, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), and echocardiographic indices. Main Outcome Measure: Incident AF. Results: A total of 199 982 adults were included in this study. In ARIC participants (4131 [2.1%]; mean [SD] age, 76 [5] years; 2449 female [59%]; 1682 male [41%]; 935 Black [23%] and 3196 White [77%]), 1019 had any CHIP (24.7%), and 478 had large CHIP (11.6%). In UKB participants (195 851 [97.9%]; mean [SD] age, 56 [8] years; 108 370 female [55%]; 87 481 male [45%]; 3154 Black [2%], 183 747 White [94%], and 7971 other race [4%]), 11 328 had any CHIP (5.8%), and 5189 had large CHIP (2.6%). ARIC participants were followed up for a median (IQR) period of 7.0 (5.3-7.7) years, and UKB participants were followed up for a median (IQR) period of 12.2 (11.3-13.0) years. Meta-analyzed hazard ratios for AF were 1.12 (95% CI, 1.01-1.25; P = .04) for participants with vs without large CHIP, 1.29 (95% CI, 1.05-1.59; P = .02) for those with vs without large TET2 CHIP (seen in 1340 of 197 209 [0.67%]), and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.02-2.07; P = .04) for those with vs without large ASXL1 CHIP (seen in 314 of 197 209 [0.16%]). Large TET2 CHIP was associated with higher IL-6 levels. Additionally, large ASXL1 was associated with higher hs-TnT level and increased left ventricular mass index. Conclusions and Relevance: Large TET2 and ASXL1, but not DNMT3A, CHIP was associated with higher IL-6 level, indices of cardiac remodeling, and increased risk for AF. Future research is needed to elaborate on the mechanisms driving the associations and to investigate potential interventions to reduce the risk.

Metabolomic Association and Risk Prediction With Heart Failure in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Older adults have markedly increased risks of heart failure (HF), specifically HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Identifying novel biomarkers can help in understanding HF pathogenesis and improve at-risk population identification. This study aimed to identify metabolites associated with incident HF, HFpEF, and HF with reduced ejection fraction and examine risk prediction in older adults. METHODS: Untargeted metabolomic profiling was performed in Black and White adults from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) visit 5 (n=3719; mean age, 75 years). We applied Cox regressions to identify metabolites associated with incident HF and its subtypes. The metabolite risk score (MRS) was constructed and examined for associations with HF, echocardiographic measures, and HF risk prediction. Independent samples from visit 3 (n=1929; mean age, 58 years) were used for replication. RESULTS: Sixty metabolites (hazard ratios range, 0.79-1.49; false discovery rate, <0.05) were associated with incident HF after adjusting for clinical risk factors, eGFR, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). Mannonate, a hydroxy acid, was replicated (hazard ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.19-1.56]) with full adjustments. MRS was associated with an 80% increased risk of HF per SD increment, and the highest MRS quartile had 8.7× the risk of developing HFpEF than the lowest quartile. High MRS was also associated with unfavorable values of cardiac structure and function. Adding MRS over clinical risk factors and NT-proBNP improved 5-year HF risk prediction C statistics from 0.817 to 0.850 (∆C, 0.033 [95% CI, 0.017-0.047]). The association between MRS and incident HF was replicated after accounting for clinical risk factors (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Novel metabolites associated with HF risk were identified, elucidating disease pathways, specifically HFpEF. An MRS was associated with HF risk and improved 5-year risk prediction in older adults, which may assist at at-risk population identification.

Association between dietary phosphate intake and skeletal muscle energetics in adults without cardiovascular disease.

Highly bioavailable inorganic phosphate (Pi) is present in large quantities in the typical Western diet and represents a large fraction of total phosphate intake. Dietary Pi excess induces exercise intolerance and skeletal muscle mitochondrial dysfunction in normal mice. However, the relevance of this to humans remains unknown. The study was conducted on 13 individuals without a history of cardiopulmonary disease (46% female, 15% Black participants) enrolled in the pilot-phase of the Dallas Heart and Mind Study. Total dietary phosphate was estimated from 24-h dietary recall (ASA24). Muscle ATP synthesis was measured at rest, and phosphocreatinine (PCr) dynamics was measured during plantar flexion exercise using 7-T 31P magnetic resonance (MR) spectroscopy in the calf muscle. Correlation was assessed between dietary phosphate intake normalized to total caloric intake, resting ATP synthesis, and PCr depletion during exercise. Higher dietary phosphate intake was associated with lower resting ATP synthesis (r = -0.62, P = 0.03), and with higher levels of PCr depletion during plantar flexion exercise relative to the resting period (r = -0.72; P = 0.004). These associations remain significant after adjustment for age and estimated glomerular filtration rate (both P < 0.05). High dietary phosphate intake was also associated with lower serum Klotho levels, and Klotho levels are in turn associated with PCr depletion and higher ADP accumulation post exercise. Our study suggests that higher dietary phosphate is associated with reduced skeletal muscle mitochondrial function at rest and exercise in humans providing new insight into potential mechanisms linking the Western diet to impaired energy metabolism.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This is the first translational research study directly demonstrating the adverse effects of dietary phosphate on muscle energy metabolism in humans. Importantly, our data show that dietary phosphate is associated with impaired muscle ATP synthesis at rest and during exercise, independent of age and renal function. This is a new biologic paradigm with significant clinical dietary implications.

Clinical implications of subclinical left ventricular dysfunction in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: The PARAGON-HF study.

AIMS: Left ventricular (LV) subclinical impairment has been described in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We assessed the relationship between LV myocardial deformation by strain imaging and recurrent hospitalization for heart failure (HF) or cardiovascular death in a large international HFpEF population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed two-dimensional speckle-tracking based global longitudinal strain (GLS) in 790 patients (mean age 74 ± 8 years, 54% female) with adequate image quality enrolled in the PARAGON-HF echocardiography study. We examined the relationship of GLS with total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death (the primary composite outcome) after accounting for clinical confounders. Approximately 47% of the population had evidence of LV subclinical dysfunction, defined as absolute GLS <16%. Impaired GLS was significantly associated with higher values of circulating baseline N-terminal pro-B-type-natriuretic peptide. After a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there were 407 total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular deaths. After multivariable adjustment, worse GLS was associated with a greater risk for the primary composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio per 1% decrease: 1.06; 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.11; p = 0.008). GLS did not modify the treatment effect of sacubitril/valsartan compared with valsartan for the composite outcome (p for interaction >0.1). CONCLUSIONS: In a large HFpEF population, impaired LV function was observed even among patients with preserved ejection fraction, and was associated with an increased risk of total HF hospitalizations or cardiovascular death, accounting for clinical confounders. These findings highlight the key role of subtle LV systolic impairment in the pathophysiology of HFpEF.

Plasma Ferritin Levels, Incident Heart Failure, and Cardiac Structure and Function: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether iron deficiency contributes to incident heart failure (HF) and cardiac dysfunction has important implications given the prevalence of iron deficiency and the availability of several therapeutics for iron repletion. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to estimate the associations of plasma ferritin level with incident HF overall, HF phenotypes, and cardiac structure and function measures in older adults. METHODS: Participants in the ongoing, longitudinal ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study who were free of prevalent HF and anemia were studied. The associations of plasma ferritin levels with incident HF overall and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Linear regression models estimated the cross-sectional associations of plasma ferritin with echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure and function. RESULTS: The cohort included 3,472 individuals with a mean age of 75 ± 5 years (56% women, 14% Black individuals). In fully adjusted models, lower ferritin was associated with higher risk for incident HF overall (HR: 1.20 [95% CI: 1.08-1.34] per 50% lower ferritin level) and higher risk for incident HFpEF (HR: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.09-1.50]). Associations with incident HFrEF were not statistically significant. Lower ferritin levels were associated with higher E/e' ratio and higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure after adjustment for demographics and HF risk factors but not with measures of left ventricular structure or systolic function. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults without prevalent HF or anemia, lower plasma ferritin level is associated with a higher risk for incident HF, HFpEF, and higher measures of left ventricular filling pressure.

Large-Scale Proteomics Identifies Novel Biomarkers and Circulating Risk Factors for Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist regarding risk factors for aortic stenosis (AS). The plasma proteome is a promising phenotype for discovery of novel biomarkers and potentially causative mechanisms. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to discover novel biomarkers with potentially causal associations with AS. METHODS: We measured 4,877 plasma proteins (SomaScan aptamer-affinity assay) among ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study participants in mid-life (visit 3 [V3]; n = 11,430; age 60 ± 6 years) and in late-life (V5; n = 4,899; age 76 ± 5 years). We identified proteins cross-sectionally associated with aortic valve (AV) peak velocity (AVmax) and dimensionless index by echocardiography at V5 and with incident AV-related hospitalization after V3 with the use of multivariable linear and Cox proportional hazard regression. We assessed associations of candidate proteins with changes in AVmax over 6 years and with AV calcification with the use of cardiac computed tomography, replicated analysis in an independent sample, performed Mendelian randomization, and evaluated gene expression in explanted human AV tissue. RESULTS: Fifty-two proteins cross-sectionally were associated with AVmax and dimensionless index at V5 and with risk of incident AV-related hospitalization after V3. Among 3,413 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, 6 of those proteins were significantly associated with adjudicated moderate or severe AS, including matrix metalloproteinase 12 (MMP12), complement C1q tumor necrosis factor-related protein 1 (C1QTNF1), and growth differentiation factor-15. MMP12 was also associated with greater increase in AVmax over 6 years, greater degree of AV calcification, and greater expression in calcific compared with normal or fibrotic AV tissue. C1QTNF1 had consistent potential causal effects on both AS and AVmax according to Mendelian randomization analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These findings identify MMP12 as a potential novel circulating biomarker of AS risk and C1QTNF1 as a new putative target to prevent AS progression.

A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) has shared genetic architecture with its risk factors: atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aim to assess the association and risk prediction performance of risk-factor polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for incident HF and its subtypes in bi-racial populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five PRSs were constructed for AF, BMI, CHD, SBP, and T2D in White participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The associations between PRSs and incident HF and its subtypes were assessed using Cox models, and the risk prediction performance of PRSs was assessed using C statistics. Replication was performed in the ARIC study Black and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) White participants. In 8624 ARIC study Whites, 1922 (31% cumulative incidence) HF cases developed over 30 years of follow-up. PRSs of AF, BMI, and CHD were associated with incident HF (P < 0.001), where PRSAF showed the strongest association [hazard ratio (HR): 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.41-1.53]. Only the addition of PRSAF to the ARIC study HF risk equation improved C statistics for 10 year risk prediction from 0.812 to 0.829 (∆C: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.009-0.026). The PRSAF was associated with both incident HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.27-1.60) and incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.33-1.62). The associations between PRSAF and incident HF and its subtypes, as well as the improved risk prediction, were replicated in the ARIC study Blacks and the CHS Whites (P < 0.050). Protein analyses revealed that N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and other 98 proteins were associated with PRSAF. CONCLUSIONS: The PRSAF was associated with incident HF and its subtypes and had significant incremental value over an established HF risk prediction equation.

Identification of Fatigue Subtypes and Their Correlates in Prevalent Heart Failure: A Secondary Analysis of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with heart failure (HF), fatigue is common and linked to quality of life and functional status. Fatigue is hypothesized to manifest as multiple types, with general and exertional components. Unique subtypes of fatigue in HF may require differential assessment and treatment to improve outcomes. We conducted this study to identify fatigue subtypes in persons with prevalent HF in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and describe the distribution of characteristics across subtypes. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 1065 participants with prevalent HF at ARIC visit 5 (2011-2013). We measured exertional fatigue using the Modified Medical Research Council Breathlessness scale and general fatigue using the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System fatigue scale. We used latent class analysis to identify subtypes of fatigue. Number of classes was determined using model fit statistics, and classes were interpreted and assigned fatigue severity rating based on the conditional probability of endorsing survey items given class. We compared characteristics across classes using multinomial regression. RESULTS: Overall, participants were 54% female and 38% Black with a mean age of 77. We identified 4 latent classes (fatigue subtypes): (1) high general/high exertional fatigue (18%), (2) high general/low exertional fatigue (27%), (3) moderate general/moderate exertional fatigue (20%), and (4) low/no general and exertional fatigue (35%). Female sex, Black race, lower education level, higher body mass index, increased depressive symptoms, and higher prevalence of diabetes were associated with higher levels of general and exertional fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: We identified unique subtypes of fatigue in patients with HF who have not been previously described. Within subtype, general and exertional fatigue were mostly concordant in severity, and exertional fatigue only occurred in conjunction with general fatigue, not alone. Further understanding these fatigue types and their relationships to outcomes may enhance our understanding of the symptom experience and inform prognostication and secondary prevention efforts for persons with HF.

Clonal Hematopoiesis and Incident Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

Importance: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related clonal expansion of hematopoietic stem cells with leukemogenic acquired genetic variants, is associated with incident heart failure (HF). Objective: To evaluate the associations of CHIP and key gene-specific CHIP subtypes with incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study included participants from 2 racially diverse prospective cohort studies with uniform HF subtype adjudication: the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) and Women's Health Initiative (WHI). JHS participants were enrolled during 2000 to 2004 and followed up through 2016. WHI participants were enrolled during 1993 to 1998 and followed up through 2022. Participants who underwent whole-genome sequencing, lacked prevalent HF at baseline, and were followed up for HF adjudication were included. Follow-up occurred over a median (IQR) of 12.0 (11.0-12.0) years in the JHS and 15.3 (9.0-22.0) years in the WHI. Statistical analysis was performed from June to December 2023. Exposures: Any CHIP and the most common gene-specific CHIP subtypes (DNMT3A and TET2 CHIP). Main Outcomes and Measures: First incident hospitalized HF events were adjudicated from hospital records and classified as HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%) or HFrEF (ejection fraction <50%). Results: A total of 8090 participants were included; 2927 from the JHS (median [IQR] age, 56 [46-65] years; 1846 [63.1%] female; 2927 [100.0%] Black or African American) and 5163 from the WHI (median [IQR] age, 67 [62-72] years; 5163 [100.0%] female; 29 [0.6%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 37 [0.7%] Asian or Pacific Islander, 1383 [26.8%] Black or African American, 293 [5.7%] Hispanic or Latinx, 3407 [66.0%] non-Hispanic White, and 14 [0.3%] with other race and ethnicity). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for composite CHIP and HFpEF was 1.28 (95% CI, 0.93-1.76; P = .13), and for CHIP and HFrEF it was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.49-1.25; P = .31). TET2 CHIP was associated with HFpEF in both cohorts (meta-analyzed HR, 2.35 [95% CI, 1.34 to 4.11]; P = .003) independent of cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery disease. Analyses stratified by C-reactive protein (CRP) in the WHI found an increased risk of incident HFpEF in individuals with CHIP and CRP greater than or equal to 2 mg/L (HR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.20-3.15]; P = .007), but not in those with CHIP and CRP less than 2 mg/L or those with CRP greater than or equal to 2 mg/L without CHIP, when compared with participants without CHIP and CRP less than 2 mg/L. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, TET2 CHIP was an independent risk factor associated with incident HFpEF. This finding may have implications for the prevention and management of HFpEF, including development of targeted therapies.

Large scale plasma proteomics identifies novel proteins and protein networks associated with heart failure development.

Heart failure (HF) causes substantial morbidity and mortality but its pathobiology is incompletely understood. The proteome is a promising intermediate phenotype for discovery of novel mechanisms. We measured 4877 plasma proteins in 13,900 HF-free individuals across three analysis sets with diverse age, geography, and HF ascertainment to identify circulating proteins and protein networks associated with HF development. Parallel analyses in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants in mid-life and late-life and in Trøndelag Health Study participants identified 37 proteins consistently associated with incident HF independent of traditional risk factors. Mendelian randomization supported causal effects of 10 on HF, HF risk factors, or left ventricular size and function, including matricellular (e.g. SPON1, MFAP4), senescence-associated (FSTL3, IGFBP7), and inflammatory (SVEP1, CCL15, ITIH3) proteins. Protein co-regulation network analyses identified 5 modules associated with HF risk, two of which were influenced by genetic variants that implicated trans hotspots within the VTN and CFH genes.

The Relationship of Neighborhood Disadvantage, Biological Aging, and Psychosocial Risk and Resilience Factors in Heart Failure Incidence Among Black Persons: A Moderated Mediation Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Deprived living environments contribute to greater heart failure (HF) risk among non-Hispanic Black persons, who disproportionately occupy disadvantaged neighborhoods. The mechanisms for these effects are not fully explicated, partially attributable to an insufficient understanding of the individual factors that contribute additional risk or resilience to the impact of neighborhood disadvantage on health. The objective of this study was, therefore, to clarify the complex pathways over which such exposures act to facilitate more targeted, effective interventions. Given the evidence for a mediating role of biological age and a moderating role of individual psychosocial characteristics in the neighborhood disadvantage-HF link, we tested a moderated mediation mechanism. METHODS: Using multilevel causal moderated mediation models, we prospectively examined whether the association of neighborhood disadvantage with incident HF mediated through accelerated biological aging, captured by the GrimAge epigenetic clock, is moderated by hypothesized psychosocial risk (negative affect) and resilience (optimism) factors. RESULTS: Among a sample of 1,448 Black participants in the shared Jackson Heart Study-Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort (mean age 64.3 years), 334 adjudicated incident hospitalized HF events occurred over a median follow-up of 18 years. In models adjusted for age and sex, the indirect (GrimAge-mediated) effect of neighborhood disadvantage was moderated by psychosocial risk such that for every standard deviation increase in negative affect the hazards of HF was 1.18 (95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.36). No moderated mediation effect was detected for optimism. DISCUSSION: Findings support the necessity for multilevel interventions simultaneously addressing neighborhood and individual psychosocial risk in the reduction of HF among Black persons.

Rethinking cancer initiation: The role of large-scale mutational events.

Cancer initiation is revisited in light of recent discoveries in cancer pathogenesis. Of note is the detection of mutated cancer genes in benign conditions. More significantly, somatic clones, which harbor mutations in cancer genes, arise in normal tissues from early development through adulthood, but seldom do they transform into cancer. Further, clustered mutational events-kataegis, chromothripsis and chromoplexy-are widespread in cancer, generating point mutations and chromosomal rearrangements in a single cellular catastrophe. These observations are contrary to the prevailing somatic mutation theory, which states that a cancer is caused by the gradual accumulation of mutations over time. A different perspective is proposed within the framework of Waddington's epigenetic landscape wherein tumorigenesis is viewed primarily as a disruption of cell development. Cell types are defined by their specific gene-expression profiles, determined by the gene regulatory network, and can be regarded as attractor states of the network dynamics: they represent specific, self-stabilizing patterns of gene activities across the genome. However, large-scale mutational events reshape the landscape topology, creating abnormal "unphysiological" attractors. This is the crux of the process of initiation. Initiation primes the cell for conversion into a tumor phenotype by oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes, which drive cell proliferation and clonal diversification. This view of tumorigenesis calls for a different approach to therapy.