Participatory policy analysis in health policy and systems research: reflections from a study in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Participatory policy analysis (PPA) as a method in health policy and system research remains underexplored. Using our experiences of conducting PPA workshops in Nepal to explore the impact of the country's move to federalism on its health system, we reflect on the method's strengths and challenges. We provide an account of the study context, the design and implementation of the workshops, and our reflections on the approach's strengths and challenges. Findings on the impact of federalism on the health system are beyond the scope of this manuscript. MAIN BODY: We conducted PPA workshops with a wide range of health system stakeholders (political, administrative and service-level workforce) at the local and provincial levels in Nepal. The workshops consisted of three activities: river of life, brainstorming and prioritization, and problem-tree analysis. Our experiences show that PPA workshops can be a valuable approach to explore health policy and system issues - especially in a context of widespread systemic change which impacts all stakeholders within the health system. Effective engagement of stakeholders and activities that encourage both individual- and system-level reflections and discussions not only help in generating rich qualitative data, but can also address gaps in participants' understanding of practical, technical and political aspects of the health system, aid policy dissemination of research findings, and assist in identifying short- and long-term practice and policy issues that need to be addressed for better health system performance and outcomes. Conducting PPA workshops is, however, challenging for a number of reasons, including the influence of gatekeepers and power dynamics between stakeholders/participants. The role and skills of researchers/facilitators in navigating such challenges are vital for success. Although the long-term impact of such workshops needs further research, our study shows the usefulness of PPA workshops for researchers, for participants and for the wider health system. CONCLUSIONS: PPA workshops can effectively generate and synthesize health policy and system evidence through collaborative engagement of health system stakeholders with varied roles. When designed with careful consideration for context and stakeholders' needs, it has great potential as a method in health policy and systems research.

The prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding practice in the first six months of life and its associated factors in Nepal: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Despite the global emphasis on breastfeeding, exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) in the first six months of life still lag behind the global recommendations in low- and middle-income countries, such as Nepal. This systematic review aims to determine the prevalence of EBF in the first six months of life and the associated factors determining EBF practices in Nepal. The databases PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, MIDIRS, DOAJ, and the NepJOL were searched for peer-reviewed literature published up to December 2021. The JBI quality appraisal checklist was used to assess the quality of studies. Analyses were performed by pooling together studies using the random-effect model, and the I2 test was used to assess the heterogeneity of the included studies. A total of 340 records were found, out of which 59 full-text were screened. Finally, 28 studies met the inclusion criteria and were selected for analysis. The pooled prevalence of EBF was 43 % (95 % confidence interval: 34-53). The odds ratio for the type of delivery was 1.59 (1.24-2.05), for ethnic minority groups 1.33 (1.02-1.75) and for first-birth order 1.89 (1.33-2.67). We found a lower prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding practice in Nepal compared to the national target. Multifaceted, effective, evidence-based interventions would encourage individuals in the exclusive breastfeeding journey. Incorporating the BEF counselling component into Nepal's existing maternal health counselling package may help promote exclusive breastfeeding practice. Further research to explore the reasons for the suboptimal level of EBF practice would help develop the targeted interventions pragmatically.

Factors affecting on compliance of childhood immunization in Ilam District of Nepal; A case-control study.

Childhood immunization is one of the most important public health interventions to reduce child morbidity and mortality. Reaching all children with full immunization services is critical to meet Nepal's commitment to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study aimed to identify factors affecting compliance with childhood immunization in children aged 16 to 36 months in Nepal. A community-based unmatched case-control study was conducted with 250 (83 cases and 167 controls) respondents in the Ilam district of Nepal. Respondents were randomly selected using a multi-stage cluster sampling technique. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and analysed using SPSS version 16 statistical software. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to identify the factors influencing compliance with childhood immunization of the sampled respondents. More than two-thirds (66.8%) of the sampled children were fully immunized, and 19.3% of the children defaulted to the Measles-Rubella vaccines. Only 19.2% of the respondents had good knowledge about the type of vaccine, and more than half (59.2%) of the respondents had a positive attitude towards immunization. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lack of knowledge about vaccines (AOR = 49.4, 95% CI = 12.94 to 188.59), father's level of education (AOR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.05 to 4.30), not getting immunization on the day of the appointment (AOR = 4.8, 95% CI = 2.30 to 9.89), lack of knowledge about immunization schedule (AOR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.14 to 4.84), and negative attitude towards immunization (AOR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.03 to 4.19) were independently impeded on compliance on the childhood immunization. Targeted intervention in health promotion activities at the household level should be promoted and integrated immunization services into the existing primary health care services.

Migrant workers' health-related research in Nepal: A bibliometric study.

Background: In recent years, the health of migrants has become an important global public health issue. However, less is known about the current status of research activity among Nepalese migrants' health. This study aimed to assess the current status of research activity by analysing published peer review literature on Nepalese migrants' health. Methods: A systematic search of published literature on Nepalese migrant workers' health was conducted in Scopus, Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO and Web of Science, and a bibliometric analysis methodology was used. The search of databases retrieved 520 records, and a total of 161 papers were included in the analysis. Bibliometric analyses were performed in R and VoSViewer to create visualisation maps. Results: The retrieved documents were published in the last three decades, and a total of 533 researchers originating from 24 countries contributed to the literature. A large proportion of papers (n=22) were published in a single year, in 2019, and the number of authors per journal ranged from one to 14. The topmost preferred journals for publications in Nepalese migrants' health were PLoS One (n=9), followed by the Journal of Immigration and Minority Health (n=6). The retrieved articles received 2425 citations, with an average of 15.1 citations per article. The study identified nine overlapping research domains (thematic areas) - infectious disease, non-communicable diseases, health and lifestyle, sexual and reproductive health, access to health services, workplace safety, maternal health, gender-based violence, and health system and policy. Conclusion: The present bibliometric study fills an analytical gap in the field of migrat's health research in Nepal and provides evidence and insights to advocate the formulation of strategies to promote the migrants' health vulnerabilities often associated with individual-related hazards such as working in 'difficult, dirty, and dangerous (3Ds) working conditions.

Fear, Stigma and Othering: The Impact of COVID-19 Rumours on Returnee Migrants and Muslim Populations of Nepal.

The paper explores how COVID-19-related moral panics have led to fear and othering practices among returnee Nepalese migrants from India and Muslims living in Nepal. This qualitative study included in-depth interviews with 15 returnee migrants, 15 Muslims from Kapilvastu and Banke districts of Nepal, and eight interviews with media and health professionals, and representatives from migration organisations. Four themes emerged from our data analysis: (1) rumours and mis/disinformation; (2) impact of rumours on marginalised groups (with three sub-themes: (i) perceived fear; (ii) othering practices; (iii) health and social impact); (3) resistance; and (4) institutional response against rumours. Findings suggest that rumours and misinformation were fuelled by various media platforms, especially social media (e.g., Facebook, YouTube) during the initial months of the lockdown. This created a moral panic which led to returnee migrants and Muslim populations experiencing fear and social isolation. Resistance and effective institutional responses to dispel rumours were limited. A key contribution of the paper is to highlight the lived experiences of COVID-19 related rumours on marginalised groups. The paper argues that there is a need for clear government action using health promotion messages to tackle rumours (health-related or otherwise), mis/disinformation and mitigating the consequences (hatred and tensions) at the community level.

Burden of tuberculosis and hepatitis co-infection among people living with HIV in Nepal: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

People living with HIV (PLHIV) are prone to tuberculosis (TB) and hepatitis co-infections, which cause substantial burden on morbidity and mortality. However, data on the burden of HIV co-infection from a specific low- and middle-income country are limited. To address this gap in evidence, a meta-analysis of published literature and country surveillance report was conducted to estimate the burden of TB, hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) co-infection among PLHIV in Nepal. Twenty-three studies, including 5900 PLHIV, were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of HIV-TB, HIV-HBV and HIV-HCV co-infection was 19% (95% CI, 10-28%), 3% (2-5%) and 19% (4-33%), respectively. Low CD4 cell count (pooled odds ratio [OR] 4.38, 95% CI 1.11-17.25), smoking (3.07, 1.48-6.37) and alcohol drinking (3.12, 1.52-6.43) were significantly correlated with HIV-TB co-infection. The odds of HCV co-infection was greater in PLHIV, who were male (5.39, 1.54-18.89) and drug users (166.26, 15.94-1734.44). PLHIV who were on antiretroviral therapy had a reduced risk of HCV co-infection (0.49, 0.36-0.66) than the general PLHIV population. The burden of TB and hepatitis co-infection among PLHIV in Nepal was high. Regular screening of PLHIV for co-infections and prompt initiation of treatment are essential to reduce the transmission of infection and improve quality of life.

Fear, Risk Perception, and Engagement in Preventive Behaviors for COVID-19 during Nationwide Lockdown in Nepal.

The world has faced huge negative effects from the COVID-19 pandemic between early 2020 and late 2021. Each country has implemented a range of preventive measures to minimize the risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study assessed the COVID-19-related fear, risk perception, and preventative behavior during the nationwide lockdown due to COVID-19 in Nepal. In a cross-sectional study, conducted in mid-2021 during the nationwide lockdown in Nepal, a total of 1484 individuals completed measures on fear of COVID-19, COVID-19 risk perception, and preventive behavior. A multiple linear regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 fear. The results revealed significant differences in the fear of COVID-19 in association with the perceived risk of COVID-19 and preventive behaviors. Age, risk perception, preventive behavior, and poor health status were significantly positively related to fear of COVID-19. Perceived risk and preventive behaviors uniquely predicted fear of COVID-19 over and above the effects of socio-demographic variables. Being female and unmarried were the significant factors associated with fear of COVID-19 among study respondents. Higher risk perception, poor health status, and being female were strong factors of increased fear of COVID-19. Targeted interventions are essential to integrate community-level mental health care for COVID-19 resilience.

Supervised Learning Computer Vision Benchmark for Snake Species Identification From Photographs: Implications for Herpetology and Global Health.

We trained a computer vision algorithm to identify 45 species of snakes from photos and compared its performance to that of humans. Both human and algorithm performance is substantially better than randomly guessing (null probability of guessing correctly given 45 classes = 2.2%). Some species (e.g., Boa constrictor) are routinely identified with ease by both algorithm and humans, whereas other groups of species (e.g., uniform green snakes, blotched brown snakes) are routinely confused. A species complex with largely molecular species delimitation (North American ratsnakes) was the most challenging for computer vision. Humans had an edge at identifying images of poor quality or with visual artifacts. With future improvement, computer vision could play a larger role in snakebite epidemiology, particularly when combined with information about geographic location and input from human experts.

The Multi-Agent Behavior Dataset: Mouse Dyadic Social Interactions.

Multi-agent behavior modeling aims to understand the interactions that occur between agents. We present a multi-agent dataset from behavioral neuroscience, the Caltech Mouse Social Interactions (CalMS21) Dataset. Our dataset consists of trajectory data of social interactions, recorded from videos of freely behaving mice in a standard resident-intruder assay. To help accelerate behavioral studies, the CalMS21 dataset provides benchmarks to evaluate the performance of automated behavior classification methods in three settings: (1) for training on large behavioral datasets all annotated by a single annotator, (2) for style transfer to learn inter-annotator differences in behavior definitions, and (3) for learning of new behaviors of interest given limited training data. The dataset consists of 6 million frames of unlabeled tracked poses of interacting mice, as well as over 1 million frames with tracked poses and corresponding frame-level behavior annotations. The challenge of our dataset is to be able to classify behaviors accurately using both labeled and unlabeled tracking data, as well as being able to generalize to new settings.

Expression of cyclooxygenase 2 in oral submucous fibrosis: An immunohistochemical pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: Oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) is associated with inflammatory changes in at least some stages of the disease. Prostaglandin is one of the main inflammatory mediators and its production is controlled by various enzymes such as cyclooxygenase (COX). The genetic and pharmacological data strongly indicate that COX-2 should be investigated as a potential target for the prevention and treatment of OSF. METHODOLOGY: The study group comprised histologically confirmed specimens (n = 10 each) of early OSF, moderate OSF, advanced OSF and normal oral mucosa for comparison. Immunohistochemistry was performed with avidin-biotin technique and evaluated with scoring methods. RESULTS: The difference in percentage of expression in normal tissue and OSF was statistically highly significant (P < 0.001). Positive COX-2 exhibited cytoplasmic staining. One-way analysis of variances test was performed to evaluate COX-2 expression in different grades of OSF. Cytoplasmic staining assessed in terms of intensity, percentage of expression and Q Score did not show any statistical difference (percentage of expression F = 0.029, P = 0.971; Q Score F = 0.154, P = 0.858). CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that COX-2 may be an important marker of disease progression and might be a reliable prognostic indicator.

Men on the move and the wives left behind: the impact of migration on family planning in Nepal.

Nepali migration is longstanding, and increased from 2.3% of the total population in 2001 to 7.2% in 2011. The estimated 1.92 million migrants are predominantly men. Consequently, 32% of married women have husbands working abroad. Social structures are complicated as many married women live with their in-laws who typically assume decision-making power, including access to health services. This study compares access to reproductive health services, fertility awareness, and decision-making power among a sample of married women aged 15-24 years (n = 1123) with migrant husbands (n = 485), and with resident husbands (n = 638). Predictably, women with migrant husbands had significantly lower contraceptive use than other married women (9.3% vs 30.3%, respectively), and expressed a higher intention to become pregnant in the next year. Despite their intentions, women with migrant husbands scored lower on a fertility awareness index, were less likely to discuss pregnancy planning with their spouse, and less likely to describe their relationships positively. Decision-making for both groups of married women was dominated by both husbands and in-laws in different ways. Yet, across multiple normative scales, fewer women with migrant husbands felt pressure to conform to existing social norms. Married women with migrant husbands reflect a subset of women, with unique fertility issues and desires. Interventions that increase knowledge of fertility among this subset of women, promote healthy preconception behaviours. Linking women for counselling opportunities throughout the pre and postnatal periods may help improve health outcomes for mothers and children.

Life expectancy and disparities in survival among HIV-infected people receiving antiretroviral therapy: an observational cohort study in Kathmandu, Nepal.

INTRODUCTION: The advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically slowed down the progression of HIV. This study assesses the disparities in survival, life expectancy and determinants of survival among HIV-infected people receiving ART. METHODS: Using data from one of Nepal's largest population-based retrospective cohort studies (in Kathmandu, Nepal), we followed a total of 3191 HIV-infected people aged 15 years and older who received ART over the period of 2004-2015. We created abridged life tables with age-specific survival rates and life expectancy, stratified by sex, ethnicity, CD4 cell counts and the WHO-classified clinical stage at initiation of ART. RESULTS: HIV-infected people who initiated ART with a CD4 cell count of >200 cells/cm3 at 15 years had 27.4 (22.3 to 32.6) years of additional life. People at WHO-classified clinical stage I and 15 years of age who initiated ART had 23.1 (16.6 to 29.7) years of additional life. Life expectancy increased alongside the CD4 cell count and decreased as clinical stages progressed upward. The study cohort contributed 8484.8 person years, with an overall survival rate of 3.3 per 100 person years (95% CI 3.0 to 3.7). CONCLUSIONS: There are disparities in survival among HIV-infected people in Nepal. The survival payback of ART is proven; however, late diagnosis or the health system as a whole will affect the control and treatment of the illness. This study offers evidence of the benefits of enrolling early in care in general and ART in particular.

Estimation of expression of beta-human chorionic gonadotropin levels through progression of disease from normal to epithelial dysplasia to malignancy.

BACKGROUND: Gonadotropins have been extensively studied in trophoblastic and nontrophoblastic tumors of breast, gastric, bladder, parathyroid, renal cell and cervical carcinomas, with a significant increase in tissue expressions. Serum levels of beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (ß-hCG) and its tissue expression were found more in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) patients with a significant diagnostic and prognostic value. No such study has been done on oral epithelial dysplasia (OED). AIMS AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the expression of ß-hCG in OED and the feasibility of using this marker for early diagnosis and to see its progression from normal to dysplasia to malignancy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study population consisted of thirty histologically confirmed cases of OED and thirty cases of OSCC. Fifteen normal tissues were also included in the study. All the tissue samples were subjected to immunohistochemical (IHC) staining using antimouse ß-hCG antibody. RESULTS: The IHC expression of ß-hCG was completely negative in normal cases (Group 1 [n = 15]), whereas 13 (43.3%) cases of OED (Group 2 [n = 30]) and 13 cases (43.3%) of OSCC (Group 3 [n = 30]) showed diffuse cytoplasmic staining in dysplastic surface epithelium and epithelial islands of OSCC. This difference was statistically significant with P = 0.007. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the expression of ß-hCG increased from normal mucosa to dysplasia to OSCC, suggesting that it is involved in the early stage of carcinogenesis and progression of the disease.

Wet Markets and Food Safety: TripAdvisor for Improved Global Digital Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Wet markets are markets selling fresh meat and produce. Wet markets are critical for food security and sustainable development in their respective regions. Due to their cultural significance, they attract numerous visitors and consequently generate tourist-geared information on the Web (ie, on social networks such as TripAdvisor). These data can be used to create a novel, international wet market inventory to support epidemiological surveillance and control in such settings, which are often associated with negative health outcomes. OBJECTIVE: Using social network data, we aimed to assess the level of wet markets' touristic importance on the Web, produce the first distribution map of wet markets of touristic interest, and identify common diseases facing visitors in these settings. METHODS: A Google search was performed on 31 food market-related keywords, with the first 150 results for each keyword evaluated based on their relevance to tourism. Of all these queries, wet market had the highest number of tourism-related Google Search results; among these, TripAdvisor was the most frequently-occurring travel information aggregator, prompting its selection as the data source for this study. A Web scraping tool (ParseHub) was used to extract wet market names, locations, and reviews from TripAdvisor. The latter were searched for disease-related content, which enabled assignment of GeoSentinel diagnosis codes to each. This syndromic categorization was overlaid onto a mapping of wet market locations. Regional prevalence of the most commonly occurring symptom group - food poisoning - was then determined (ie, by dividing the number of wet markets per continent with more than or equal to 1 review containing this syndrome by the total number of wet markets on that continent with syndromic information). RESULTS: Of the 1090 hits on TripAdvisor for wet market, 36.06% (393/1090) conformed to the query's definition; wet markets were heterogeneously distributed: Asia concentrated 62.6% (246/393) of them, Europe 19.3% (76/393), North America 7.9% (31/393), Oceania 5.1% (20/393), Africa 3.1% (12/393), and South America 2.0% (8/393). Syndromic information was available for 14.5% (57/393) of wet markets. The most frequently occurring syndrome among visitors to these wet markets was food poisoning, accounting for 54% (51/95) of diagnoses. Cases of this syndrome were identified in 56% (22/39) of wet markets with syndromic information in Asia, 71% (5/7) in Europe, and 71% (5/7) in North America. All wet markets in South America and Oceania reported food poisoning cases, but the number of reviews with syndromic information was very limited in these regions (n=2). CONCLUSIONS: The map produced illustrates the potential role of touristically relevant social network data to support global epidemiological surveillance. This includes the possibility to approximate the global distribution of wet markets and to identify diseases (ie, food poisoning) that are most prevalent in such settings.

Coalition of E-cadherin and vascular endothelial growth factor expression in predicting malignant transformation in common oral potentially malignant disorders.

BACKGROUND: Reduced E-cadherin expression and increased VEGF expression is known to be involved in tissue growth and transformation of Oral Potentially Malignant Disorders (OPMDs) and has been correlated with their differing histological grades in numerous studies. AIM: To evaluate Immunohistochemical (IHC) expression of both E-cadherin and VEGF in predicting the malignant transformation potential of common OPMDs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten cases each of Normal Oral mucosa (NOM), Mild Oral Epithelial Dysplasia (OED), Moderate OED, Severe OED, Oral Submucous Fibrosis, (OSMF) and Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OSCC) were stained and evaluated for the expression of Ecadherin and VEGF. Quick score (QS) for expression intensity in all epithelial layers was calculated for both markers and results statistically analysed using Kruskal -Wallis ANOVA and Mann-Whitney "U" test. RESULTS: E-cadherin expression was continuous and membranous in all the layers of NOM and reduced with progressing grades of OED to OSCC. In OSMF, expression was intermediate between moderate and severe OED. VEGF expression increased as the disease progressed from normal to increasing grades of OED to malignancy. In OSMF, expression was similar to that in mild OED. VEGF, E-cadherin expression for basal and parabasilar cells showed a strong statistically significant negative correlation in NOM. A very strong statistically significant positive correlation with perfect monotonic relation was noted in superficial cells in severe OED group and OSCC group. CONCLUSION: E-Cadherin and VEGF could be used as combination markers to predict the potential risk for malignant transformation in OEDs.

A survey of health problems of Nepalese female migrants workers in the Middle-East and Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: Nepal is a key supplier of labour for countries in the Middle East, India and Malaysia. As many more men than women leave Nepal to work abroad, female migrant workers are a minority and very much under-researched. The aim of the study was to explore the health problems of female Nepalese migrants working in the Middle-East and Malaysia. METHODS: The study was conducted among 1010 women who were registered as migrant returnees at an organisation called Pourakhi Nepal. Secondary data were extracted from the records of the organisation covering the five-year period of July 2009 to July 2014. RESULTS: The 1010 participants were aged 14 to 51 with a median age of 31 (IQR: 38-25) years. A quarter of respondents (24%) reported having experienced health problems while in the country of employment. Fever, severe illness and accidents were the most common health problems reported. Working for unlimited periods of time and not being able to change one's place of work were independently associated with a greater likelihood of health problems. Logistic regression shows that migrant women who are illiterate [OR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.38, p = 0.042], who had changed their workplace [OR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.14 to 2.32, p = 0.007], who worked unlimited periods of time [OR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.44 to 1.93, p = 0.020], had been severely maltreated or tortured in the workplace [OR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.15 to 2.92, p = 0.010], were not being paid on time [OR = 2.38, 95% CI: 1.60 to 3.55, p = 0.038] and migrant women who had family problems at home [OR = 3.48, CI 95%: 1.22 to 9.98, p = 0.020] were significantly associated with health problems in their host country in the Middle East. CONCLUSION: Female migrant workers face various work-related health risks, which are often related to exploitation. The Government of Nepal should initiate awareness campaigns about health risks and rights in relation to health care services in the host countries. Recruiting agencies/employers should provide information on health risks and training for preventive measures. Raising awareness among female migrant workers can make a change in their working lives.

Cancer burden attributable to cigarette smoking among HIV-infected people in North America.

OBJECTIVE: With combination-antiretroviral therapy, HIV-infected individuals live longer with an elevated burden of cancer. Given the high prevalence of smoking among HIV-infected populations, we examined the risk of incident cancers attributable to ever smoking cigarettes. DESIGN: Observational cohort of HIV-infected participants with 270 136 person-years of follow-up in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design consortium. Among 52 441 participants, 2306 were diagnosed with cancer during 2000-2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated hazard ratios and population-attributable fractions (PAF) associated with ever cigarette smoking for all cancers combined, smoking-related cancers, and cancers that were not attributed to smoking. RESULTS: People with cancer were more frequently ever smokers (79%) compared with people without cancer (73%). Adjusting for demographic and clinical factors, cigarette smoking was associated with increased risk of cancer overall [hazard ratios = 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.18-1.49)]; smoking-related cancers [hazard ratios = 2.31 (1.80-2.98)]; lung cancer [hazard ratios = 17.80 (5.60-56.63)]; but not nonsmoking-related cancers [hazard ratios = 1.12 (0.98-1.28)]. Adjusted PAFs associated with ever cigarette smoking were as follows: all cancers combined, PAF = 19% (95% confidence interval: 13-25%); smoking-related cancers, PAF = 50% (39-59%); lung cancer, PAF = 94% (82-98%); and nonsmoking-related cancers, PAF = 9% (1-16%). CONCLUSION: Among HIV-infected persons, approximately one-fifth of all incident cancer, including half of smoking-related cancer, and 94% of lung cancer diagnoses could potentially be prevented by eliminating cigarette smoking. Cigarette smoking could contribute to some cancers that were classified as nonsmoking-related cancers in this report. Enhanced smoking cessation efforts targeted to HIV-infected individuals are needed.

Prevalence of depressive symptoms and its associated factors in older adults: a cross-sectional study in Kathmandu, Nepal.

OBJECTIVE: Globally, depression is one of the most prevalent and burdensome conditions in older adults. However, there are few population-based studies of depression in older adults in developing countries. In this paper, we examine the prevalence of depressive symptoms and explore possible contributory risk factors in older adults living in Nepal. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in two semi-urban communities in Kathmandu, Nepal. Depression was assessed using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale in 303 participants, aged 60 years and over. Multivariate logistic regression was then used to assess associations between potential risk factors and depression. RESULTS: More than half of the participants (n = 175, 60.6%) had significant depressive symptomatology, with 27.7% having scores suggesting mild depression. Illiteracy (aOR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.08-3.75), physical immobility (aOR = 5.62, 95% CI: 1.76-17.99), the presence of physical health problems (aOR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.03-3.77), not having any time spent with family members (aOR = 3.55, 95% CI: 1.29-9.76) and not being considered in family decision-making (aOR = 4.02, 95% CI: 2.01-8.04) were significantly associated with depression in older adults. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of depression was significant in older adults. There are clear associations of depression with demographic, social support and physical well-being factors in this population. Strategies that increase awareness in the community along with the health and social care interventions are needed to address the likely drivers of depression in older adults.

Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal.