Insights from a modelling analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Background: Understanding the main determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake is critical to increasing vaccine coverage. This is particularly important for COVID-19 vaccine uptake, which has been affected by both demand and supply issues. Aim: To understand the links between vaccine uptake and demand and supply issues in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean and UNICEF Middle East and North Africa regions. Methods: We collected data through 2 rounds of a repeated cross-sectional phone survey from 11 000 individuals across 16 low- and middle-income countries. We used logit modelling to distil the main characteristics of the 4 vaccination categories (vaccinated, unvaccinated but willing, unvaccinated and undecided, and unvaccinated and unwilling) while also considering vaccine availability. We conducted sub-regional analysis to account for differences in level of development between the low- and middle-income countries. Results: Despite the increase in vaccination coverage from 60.9% at the end of 2021 to 78.3% by August 2022, about 9% were not willing and were not vaccinated during the two rounds of interviews. Our modelling analysis revealed that positive beliefs about safety, effectiveness and side effects of the COVID-19 vaccines were associated with increased odds of being vaccinated or willingness to be vaccinated. Those who did not believe in the safety of the vaccines were less likely to be vaccinated than those who believed in the safety of the vaccines (OR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.46-0.67). By contrast, negative beliefs about the COVID-19 vaccines increased the probability of being unwilling to be vaccinated. Conclusion: The results from this research offer useful insights into tackling the supply and demand related barriers to COVID-19 vaccination uptake and provides lessons for future health threats.

Effect of Birth Preparedness on Institutional Delivery in Semiurban Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has one of the lowest rates of facility delivery and is promoting birth preparedness among pregnant women through its community health services to increase the rate of institutional delivery and reduce maternal mortality. Observational studies of birth preparedness in Ethiopia have thus far only reported the marginal effect of birth preparedness when controlling for other factors, such as parity and education. OBJECTIVES: In this cross-sectional study, we use propensity score modeling to estimate the average population-level effect of birth preparedness on the likelihood of delivering at a facility. METHODS: We conducted secondary analysis of household survey data collected from 215 women with a recent live birth within the catchment areas of 10 semi-urban health centers. A mother was considered well prepared for birth if she reported completing four of the following six actions: identified a skilled provider, identified an institution, saved money, identified transport, prepared clean delivery materials, and prepared food. We performed unadjusted and multivariate logistic regression analyses, with and without propensity score weighting, to assess the relationship between birth preparedness and institutional delivery. FINDINGS: One hundred respondents (47%) delivered in an institution, and over two-thirds (151, 71%) were considered well prepared for birth. Institutional delivery was more common among women who were considered well prepared (57%) versus those who were considered not well prepared (19%). In the model with propensity score weighting, women who were well prepared for birth had 3.83 times higher odds of delivering at a facility (95% CI: 1.41-10.40, p-value = 0.010). CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes to existing evidence supporting the inclusion of antenatal birth preparedness counseling as a part of an antenatal care package for promoting institutional delivery. Important gaps remain in operationalizing the definition of birth preparedness and understanding the pathway from exposure to outcome.