Agent-based modelling of complex factors impacting malaria prevalence.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly complex models have been developed to characterize the transmission dynamics of malaria. The multiplicity of malaria transmission factors calls for a realistic modelling approach that incorporates various complex factors such as the effect of control measures, behavioural impacts of the parasites to the vector, or socio-economic variables. Indeed, the crucial impact of household size in eliminating malaria has been emphasized in previous studies. However, increasing complexity also increases the difficulty of calibrating model parameters. Moreover, despite the availability of much field data, a common pitfall in malaria transmission modelling is to obtain data that could be directly used for model calibration. METHODS: In this work, an approach that provides a way to combine in situ field data with the parameters of malaria transmission models is presented. This is achieved by agent-based stochastic simulations, initially calibrated with hut-level experimental data. The simulation results provide synthetic data for regression analysis that enable the calibration of key parameters of classical models, such as biting rates and vector mortality. In lieu of developing complex dynamical models, the approach is demonstrated using most classical malaria models, but with the model parameters calibrated to account for such complex factors. The performance of the approach is tested against a wide range of field data for Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) values. RESULTS: The overall transmission characteristics can be estimated by including various features that impact EIR and malaria incidence, for instance by reducing the mosquito-human contact rates and increasing the mortality through control measures or socio-economic factors. CONCLUSION: Complex phenomena such as the impact of the coverage of the population with long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), changes in behaviour of the infected vector and the impact of socio-economic factors can be included in continuous level modelling. Though the present work should be interpreted as a proof of concept, based on one set of field data only, certain interesting conclusions can already be drawn. While the present work focuses on malaria, the computational approach is generic, and can be applied to other cases where suitable in situ data is available.

Computational Study of the Effect of Mineral Dust on Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation by Accretion Reactions of Closed-Shell Organic Compounds.

The effect of dust aerosols on accretion reactions of water, formaldehyde, and formic acid was studied in the conditions of earth's troposphere at the DLPNO-CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//ωB97X-D/6-31++G** level of theory. A detailed analysis of the reaction mechanisms in the gas phase and on the surface of mineral dust, represented by mono- and trisilicic acid, revealed that mineral dust has the potential of decreasing reaction barrier heights. Specifically, at 0 K, mineral dust can lower the apparent energy barrier of the reaction of formaldehyde with formic acid to zero. However, when the entropic contributions to the reaction free energies were accounted for, mineral dust was found to selectively enhance the reaction of water with formaldehyde, while inhibiting the reaction of formaldehyde and formic acid, in the lower parts of the troposphere (with temperatures around 298 K). In the upper troposphere (with temperatures closer to 198 K), mineral dust catalyzes both reactions and also the reaction of methanol with formic acid. Despite the intrinsic potential of mineral dust, calculation of the catalytic enhancement parameter for a likely range of dust aerosol concentrations suggested that dust aerosols will not contribute to secondary organic aerosol formation via dimerization of closed-shell organic compounds. The main reason for this is the relatively low absolute concentration of tropospheric dust aerosol and its inefficiency in increasing the effective reaction rate coefficients.

Modeling host-seeking behavior of African malaria vector mosquitoes in the presence of long-lasting insecticidal nets.

The efficiency of spatial repellents and long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) is a key research topic in malaria control. Insecticidal nets reduce the mosquito-human contact rate and simultaneously decrease mosquito populations. However, LLINs demonstrate dissimilar efficiency against different species of malaria mosquitoes. Various factors have been proposed as an explanation, including differences in insecticide-induced mortality, flight characteristics, or persistence of attack. Here we present a discrete agent-based approach that enables the efficiency of LLINs, baited traps and Insecticide Residual Sprays (IRS) to be examined. The model is calibrated with hut-level experimental data to compare the efficiency of protection against two mosquito species: Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis. We show that while such data does not allow an unambiguous identification of the details of how LLINs alter the vector behavior, the model calibrations quantify the overall impact of LLINs for the two different mosquito species. The simulations are generalized to community-scale scenarios that systematically demonstrate the lower efficiency of the LLINs in control of An. arabiensis compared to An. gambiae.